Because they are against a tough, and often contending division rival, games against the Milwaukee Brewers are a reasonable "litmus test" of how the Pirates will fare in the National League Central.
And the only thing worse than being swept by the Milwaukee on the road is to be swept by them at home.
Worse, being all but shut out, scoring only one run in three games. While the Brewers scored 36 runs during the same stretch. Talk about a "kitchen sink."
We can now conclude that at least the Brewers, along with the St. Louis Cardinals, will finish ahead of the Pirates this year in the division.
When the Pirates failed the test, it brought their so-far winning season to a screeching halt. And that was basically was the case early last year as well.
Observing the 0-3 result against the Brewers in Miller Park, which left the Pirates 11-10 at the time, I reasonably "capped" the Pirates' 2009 win total in the low 70s—and turned out to be an optimist.
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Still, the Pirates can take some heart in their sweep against the Cincinnati Reds. Here is one division rival they CAN beat, at least at home. But now they go on a road trip, and meet the same Milwaukee Brewers on their turf.
Having just lost a series at home against Milwaukee, it's expecting a lot for the Pirates, who haven't won any of their last 20 games in Miller Park, to start breaking that streak now.
So I'm running the Pirates' possible road trip outcomes on the assumption that they won't. Nor do I think that the Pirates can reach even .500 on the road, having barely done so at home.
This means that the road trip will be a test of whether the Pirates can stay out of the cellar, rather than make it to the top. Basically, the Pirates will see if they can win the season series against the Houston Astros, the other very bad team (based on run differential) in the National League.
A two out of three result in the Astrodome would suggest that the Pirates are at least better than the Astros. Even one of out of three on the road wouldn't argue against it.
The series against the Dodgers isn't nearly as critical. The Pirates have two wins in the bag against this team already. So win, draw, or lose the series in Los Angeles, that will be the last that the Pirates see of these west coasters for the rest of the season.
Assuming that only seven games are "in play", here is the meaning of the probable outcomes:
Four wins. That would suggest a win of at least one of the two non-Brewer series, probably a tie (against the Dodgers) in the other, and a decent 4-6 road score overall, keeping the Pirates in the hunt for .500.
Three wins. That might be the single most likely result. If two (or more) of those wins came against the Astros, it would be quite helpful within the division. Then the Pirates will have at least two candidates that might end up below them.
Two wins. That would suggest one win apiece in the two non-Brewer series. Two wins against the Astros would be more useful; two wins against the Dodgers would merely show strength OUTSIDE the division.
One win. Could any other team go through a ten game road stretch winning no more than one? Unfortunately, the Pirates can.
The Pirates won't go very far until they give clear and convincing evidence of having overcome their Milwaukee "jinx;" being "sure" losers in Miller Park, no better than even money in PNC Park against the Brewers.
Still, the rest of the season could be a case of "sauve qui peut" (save what you can).
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