Like most of us this time of year, Major League Baseball teams have great big lists of things to buy. All they have to decide now is where to shop: Free Agents 'R' Us, or Trades 'R' Us.
And maybe more so than in any other winter in recent memory, that's a tough call.
All the attention seems to be on the free-agent market. Provided you've got the cash, there's always plenty of talent out there. But that goes double for this winter's free-agent market. Heck, triple.
Need a starting pitcher? This year's free-agent market has four aces in David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann, as well as an army of No. 2 or 3 types such as Mike Leake, Jeff Samardzija, Hisashi Iwakuma, John Lackey, Scott Kazmir, Wei-Yin Chen and Yovani Gallardo.
Need an outfielder? There are also plenty of those, most notably Jason Heyward, Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton, Alex Gordon and Dexter Fowler. Also out there is first baseman Chris Davis, baseball's top slugger. And Ben Zobrist, baseball's top utility player. And Howie Kendrick and Daniel Murphy, two of baseball's steadiest second basemen. And Ian Desmond, one of baseball's top offensive shortstops.
Alas, there aren't any true shutdown closers available. However, at least there's Darren O'Day, Joakim Soria, Tyler Clippard, Ryan Madson and Mark Lowe.
In all, what you're looking at is what Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports warned us back in May would be "the greatest free-agent class in baseball history." Such a thing seems out of place in a day and age when the rise of contract extensions have mortally wounded free agency, but, hey, there it is.
With all this talent available for just spare cash (plus, for some free agents, a draft pick), it makes you wonder what in the talent-acquisition world could possibly match the free-agent market.
Easy. The trade market. It's already off to a rousing beginning, and still has enough potentially available talent left on it to rival even the greatest-ever class of free agents.
As the free-agent market has been waiting for things to heat up, the trade market has been hopping.
The Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays kicked things off with a mutual-upside-play trade, and the Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees pulled off one of their own more recently. The trade market has also changed the addresses of late-inning relievers Joaquin Benoit and Francisco Rodriguez, as well as elite shortstop Andrelton Simmons and elite closer Craig Kimbrel.
And from the sound of things, this is all just the trade market's opening statement.
One area where the trade market is clearly stronger than the free-agent market is its collection of relief pitchers. Kimbrel, Benoit and K-Rod have already been moved, and C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports that a trade of Cincinnati Reds fireballing closer Aroldis Chapman may be imminent. Elsewhere, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports has reported on the availability of fellow elite firemen Andrew Miller, Mark Melancon and Ken Giles.
Even this list may just be scratching the surface. As one general manager told Heyman: "Everyone's closer is available. People, especially the young GMs, have no fear of trading their closer."
The trade market also has the starting pitchers to contend with the free-agent market. Even if we disregard the names everyone wants to be available—looking at you, Chris Sale, Matt Harvey and Sonny Gray—we can get into names like Stephen Strasburg, Shelby Miller, Tyson Ross and Carlos Carrasco that pass the smell test as players that actually could be moved.
For teams that don't want to make a huge commitment to Davis, the trade market has very attractive alternatives. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports has reported that Freddie Freeman could follow Simmons out the door in Atlanta. And according to Rosecrans, the Cincinnati Reds' willingness to listen to all offers means Joey Votto isn't off the table.
On that same note, Todd Frazier is a far better option than any free-agent third baseman. Jonathan Lucroy, who ESPN.com's Buster Olney says could be part of a similar sell-off in Milwaukee, is likewise the star at the center of the catcher market.
Then there are the outfielders. Jay Bruce is another Red who could go. Rosenthal's report notes that Matt Kemp could follow Kimbrel out the door in San Diego. Heyman has reported that Carlos Gonzalez is available coming off his monster 2015 season. Other names that have surfaced in the rumor mill include Yasiel Puig, Brett Gardner, Jorge Soler and Jackie Bradley Jr.
Are you getting the gist? There's a lot of talent potentially available on the trade market. That's the gist, in case you weren't getting it.
Granted, to some extent this isn't surprising.
Part of what's going on is the numbers game. The amount of free agents isn't small, but it's significantly larger than the amount of club-controlled players that are untouchable in trade talks. Because of that, the trade market will always be able to keep up with the free-agent market, and then some.
But that's not the only thing shaping the trade market.
The way in which teams have flooded the trade market with big-name relievers reeks of opportunism. There's likely extra demand for relievers after the Kansas City Royals displayed the value of a deep bullpen for the second year in a row. There's not enough to supply to meet that demand on the open market, so general managers are flooding the trade market with options.
The shape of the free-agent market may also be feeling the influence of the contemporary attitude toward free agency. This winter's free-agent market may be historically deep, but with few exceptions—Heyward, Upton and Leake being the big ones—one thing it has in common with every other free-agent market is that it's loaded with guys who are either already on or nearing the wrong side of 30.
As Tom Verducci highlighted at Sports Illustrated, history clearly shows that handing huge contracts to such players tends to be a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad idea. Teams, Verducci notes, are getting the message:
Younger players are more preferred in today’s game. They are cheaper, generally better on defense (which gets more attention in a run-depressed environment), and because of better instruction and more intense levels of amateur play, ready for the big leagues quicker.
This is where the trade market offers an advantage that the free-agent market generally can't.
It's noteworthy not just that many of the players we mentioned above are short of 30 and very much in their primes, but also that virtually every trade now involves prospect talent going to the seller. And indeed, the way in which the Braves, Padres, Reds and Brewers are positioning themselves suggests that they noticed what the Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs were able to do after spending years collecting prospect talent en masse.
Of course, the elephant in the room with the Riddler-esque question mark on its side is how many of the players rumored or speculated to be trade bait are actually going to be dealt. There's more than a fair chance that the majority of them will stay put. If so, this winter's trade market would be hard-pressed to leave a mark as big as the one the free-agent market is going to leave.
But if enough of them do, the trade market could easily make a mark as big as the free-agent market. Maybe an even bigger one.
We can take it for granted that many, many dollars are going to be spent on free agents. Probably a couple billion, because there's a rule that says teams must act in free agency the same way Floyd Mayweather Jr. acts at a nightclub.
But we can also take it for granted that there's going to be a huge gap between the number of prime years bought and the number of prime years actually delivered in the end. Again, a few exceptions aside, the free-agent market doesn't deal in prime years.
The trade market is different. It presents many more options for buyers to land players in the thick of their primes, and is an outlet for sellers to load up on young players they can control into their prime. It's where both contenders and rebuilders can score big, and reap the rewards for more than just the short term.
In theory, anyway. There's no question that the free-agent market will live up to its spending potential. There is some question whether the trade market will live up to its trading potential.
But if all the noise is any indication, it could. It's not short on options, and very likely won't be short on shoppers.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. Special thanks to MLB Trade Rumors for putting all the rumors in one place.
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