Type B free agent third baseman Adrian Beltre could be a relatively cheap free agent to plug in at the hot corner for the Oakland A’s for the next few seasons.
His power and walk numbers declined steeply in 2009, but his defense remains impressive. The A’s have often injured Eric Chavez topping their depth chart at third. Oakland won’t count on Chavez to return to full-time playable health as he’s totaled just 121 games played over the last three years.
To preserve Chavez from further injury, the Athletics could play him a lot at DH in addition to some corner infield. The A’s also have newly acquired Jake Fox, who saw the majority of his playing time at third base and left field in his first season in the Big Leagues.
In 2009, the 27-year-old got 241 plate appearances and showed nice power, hitting 11 home runs and 12 doubles (to go with a mediocre .311 on base percentage).
Fox was shaky at third base, but a move to second sounds reasonable. In addition to sharing time with Mark Ellis there, he could play some first base and DH. This would slide Aaron Miles into a utility infield role.
Daric Barton, 23, will likely see most of the playing time at first base. He posted a .269/.372/.413, 108 OPS+ line in 192 PA’s last year, which was a great improvement on his 84 OPS+ in 523 PA’s from the previous season.
Tommy Everidge will serve as a backup first baseman, and we may also see a cup of coffee given to promising prospects Sean Doolittle and Chris Carter.
Onto Beltre’s stats and contractual value to the A’s.
Here are his home run per fly ball rates and isolated power numbers:
Year: HR/FB%, Iso
2005: 10.8, .158
2006: 11.9, .197
2007: 13.3, .207
2008: 13.8, .191
2009: 5.6, .114
Leaving Safeco Field for Beltre, probably means an offensive upgrade in the 2010 season. A bounce-back to the high 100s in isolated power is a possibility.
However, he will need to re-claim his stroke against right-handed pitchers. In 2009, he has continued to decline in that facet of his game, dropping over 70 OPS points in consecutive seasons.
OPS vs. RHP, At Bats
2006: .786, 488/620 AB
2007: .780, 470/595 AB
2008: .704, 406/556 AB
2009: .616, 328/449 AB
OPS vs LHP
2006: .813
2007: .882
2008: .994
2009: .885
Beltre’s patience has lapsed also. The following stats are his walk percentages, pitches per plate appearance, and swing percentage of pitches outside of the strike zone.
Year: BB%, P/PA, O-Swing%
2006: 7.0, 3.78, 32.8
2007: 6.0, 3.70, 37.5
2008: 8.3, 3.76, 33.7
2009: 4.1, 3.56, 36.8
In 2009, Beltre not only took fewer pitches, but he also swung at a lot of pitches out of the strike zone. His on base percentage dipped to .304. The previous three years it was .328, .319, and .327. Beltre isn’t a good contact hitter, and he doesn’t have enough power to off-set an utter disregard for taking pitches.
However, if Adrian hikes his pitches per plate appearance by a nice margin, then a .330 on base percentage is within his grasp.
Now let’s take a gander to see if Oakland’s (or SF’s) ballpark would be suitable for Beltre’s hitting style.
Here are some ballpark dimensions in feet:
Seattle: 331 left foul, 390 left center, 405 center
Oakland: 330 left foul, 375 left center, 400 center
San Francisco: 339 left foul , 364 left center, 399 center
Here is his home run distribution by field with total hits in parenthesis:
Year: LF, CF, RF
2006: 8 (72), 12 (73), 4 (20)
2007: 15 (76), 11 (66), 0 (22)
2008: 13 (54), 7 (78), 5 (16)
2009: 5 (41), 2 (63), 1 (15)
Beltre hits for his highest average when he pulls the ball, but his power is spread between left field and center field. Oakland seems like a good fit for Beltre in terms of ballpark dimensions, but the 16 foot wall height in the power alleys may knock down a few potential home runs.
On defense, the 30-year-old has been consistently among the league leaders at third base, and in 2009, he remained solid. According to fangraphs.com, he led the league in UZR/150 with a 21.0 value among qualified 3B.
He has three more putouts than last year in 220.2 less innings and his fielding percentage of .959 is about par with last year’s .964 total.
According to baseball-reference.com, Beltre’s total fielding runs above average for last year was 6.7. Judging by his good range and numerous putouts, he appears to still be at top form with the glove.
The significant decline in Beltre’s offense will make teams think twice before shelling out serious dough and more than a couple of years. However, you can bank on his defense and if he improves his plate discipline and regains some of his pop (which seems likely), he could be a decent buy low candidate.
I would be surprised to see him get significantly more than three years and $25 -$30 million. Oakland is still well below budget, and they have opened up a slot for a free agent at third base by trading away Brett Wallace (who apparently is more of a first baseman after all anyway) to Toronto for outfielder Michael Taylor.
Beltre will inevitably improve upon 2009’s dismal numbers, and he may be worth that type of money to the A’s, especially considering their reoccuring bouts with injuries and glut of corner infielders who are all turning out to be first baseman/DH types.
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