It's not a set-in-stone rule or anything, but it sure seems like a Major League Baseball season can't qualify as modern unless at least one top-ranked hitting prospect takes the league by storm.
In Nomar Mazara, the Texas Rangers may have just the guy for 2016.
The 20-year-old became the youngest player in the majors when the Rangers called him up to fill in for injured right fielder Shin-Soo Choo, and he started raking immediately. Mazara torched the Los Angeles Angels for three hits in his debut on April 10, including an absolute clout of a home run:
That remains the young outfielder's lone home run, but the hits have otherwise kept coming in his first seven games. Mazara has 12 hits in 27 at-bats for a .444 average, and he also boasts a 1.044 OPS.
As far as reasons not to get too excited, there's obviously the whole small-sample-size thing. Seven games and 27 at-bats are not big numbers, as you well know.
But since a .444 average and a 1.044 OPS are big numbers, what Mazara is doing certainly can't be ignored. And if we really wanted to make him look good, we could note that his OPS is better than Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Carlos Correa and Kris Bryant managed in their first seven games:
- Trout: .359 OPS
- Harper: .814 OPS
- Correa: .885 OPS
- Bryant: 1.035 OPS
I'm not sure why anyone would (he said with his tongue firmly in his cheek) take this as a sign that Mazara is going to be a better player than any of them, but please don't do that. Rather, this is more of a sign that Mazara can indeed be the next greatly hyped young hitter to actually satisfy expectations.
The hype began to build when Mazara signed with the Rangers out of the Dominican Republic as a 16-year-old in 2011. They picked him up with a $5 million bonus, a record for an international amateur at the time.
It took some time for Mazara to find his stride in the minors, but he opened eyes with a .306/.381/.518 slash line at Double-A in 2014. That helped put him in a few top-100 prospect lists, and he moved further up the ranks after slashing .358/.409/.444 at Triple-A at the end of 2015.
Keith Law of ESPN.com and Baseball Prospectus were particularly high on Mazara coming into 2016. They rated him at No. 9 and No. 5, respectively, and painted him as a perfect hitting prospect. Law praised Mazara for his "advanced approach" and his willingness to use the whole field. And with his "bat speed, plane, hand-eye coordination," Baseball Prospectus saw the goods for a plus-plus hit tool.
Seven games into Mazara's career, you can already see what all the fuss is about.
Though Mazara has only drawn two walks in 31 plate appearances for a 6.5 walk percentage, he hasn't been overly aggressive. He's averaging 4.13 pitches per plate appearance, which is safely above the major league average of 3.87. The danger of seeing that many pitches is running into strikeouts, but only 4.7 percent of Mazara's swings have resulted in whiffs, and he has only three strikeouts for a 9.7 strikeout percentage.
For anyone who's wondering how Mazara compares to fellow breakout hitting stars Trevor Story and Tyler White, this means he doesn't have the same crack in his armor that they have in theirs. And knowing him, that it's not there isn't so surprising.
Taking a cue from Chris Mitchell of FanGraphs, here's a look at how Mazara's MLB strikeout rate fits with a pattern of him getting better at making contact as the competition gets tougher:
Mazara's improvement as a contact hitter traces back to a change he made while with Single-A Hickory early in 2014. He began the year with an exaggerated leg kick, but toned it down to a point where it became more of a toe tap. He's stuck with it, and has enjoyed more consistent timing as a result.
"I took [the leg kick] out because sometimes I was too in front, sometimes I was too late. Probably one out of 10 times, I was on time," Mazara told Chris Cwik of Yahoo Sports. "It wasn’t working, so I had to do something different to make it [work], so I have the toe tap.”
The reality that Mazara's contact habit is carrying over to The Show is not to be overlooked. The league's average strikeout rate has taken a jump from 20.4 percent last year to 21.9 percent in 2016. Guys who can strike out roughly half that often are rare commodities, and it looks like Mazara can be just that.
And when Mazara has made contact, he's lived up to his reputation as a hitter with terrific bat control.
The lefty swinger has pulled only 23.1 percent of his batted balls, preferring instead to use center field (38.5) and left field (38.5). That's him sticking with how he operated in 2015, as MLB Farm can show that he liked going up the middle and the other way just as much as he liked going to his pull side:
This is yet another quality that's not to be overlooked. It theoretically makes Mazara shift-proof, and the winds are already blowing that way in reality. Per new data at FanGraphs, teams have shifted on Mazara only eight times.
If there's a nit to pick with Mazara's early results, it's that he hasn't crushed every ball he's put in play. According to Baseball Savant, his average exit velocity is only 85.7 mph. That's safely below the MLB average of 89.1.
But this may be the one part of Mazara's first impression that is misleading. ESPN.com and Baseball Prospectus agree he has enough power to hit 20 to 30 home runs per year at his peak. And as the 6'4", 215-pounder showed with his 443.5-foot home run, he has plenty of raw power in him right now.
So when looking ahead, the only thing clouding Mazara's immediate future is Choo's inevitable return. With him in right field, Prince Fielder at designated hitter and a red-hot Delino DeShields Jr. in center field, the Rangers' only real option for continuing to play Mazara would be to play him over the slumping Ian Desmond in left field.
But don't be surprised if that's the route they choose. The Rangers only have $8 million invested in Desmond, after all, and moving him to the bench would give them a good right-handed platoon bat to use in tandem with either Mazara or second baseman Rougned Odor.
It's either that, or the Rangers will send Mazara back to the minors. Even despite the small sample size, it's hard to see that happening. Mazara has done enough in the minors to establish himself as arguably the American League's best hitting prospect, and what worked for him there is already working for him in the majors.
The message he's sending the Rangers is that the time is now.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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