East meets West—or, more accurately (at least geographically), North meets South—as the champions of the AL West, the Texas Rangers, and the AL East champs, the Toronto Blue Jays, prepare to get American League Division Series play underway Thursday afternoon at Rogers Centre.
The visitors will send their No. 2 starter, Yovani Gallardo, to the hill, while the home team will counter with perennial Cy Young Award contender David Price, one of the elite starters in all of baseball. While both clubs have powerful lineups, they could each be limited in what should be a terrific pitching duel.
After scouring the numbers and each team's respective roster, we've honed in on a few keys to each team finding success and taking an early lead in the five-game series.
Get to Price Early
No team got on base more often in the first inning than the Rangers (.382 OBP), a major reason why Texas trailed only the New York Yankees when it came to putting runs on the board in the game's opening frame.
And it just so happens that the first inning has been Price's least effective all year long, as he's pitched to a 3.66 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Those aren't awful numbers by any stretch, but they're about as bad as they get for Price.
As one anonymous position player from a club in the AL East told MLB.com of Toronto's ace: "You have to attack him before he attacks you. With a guy like that, you have to get to him early: early in the game, early in the count."
Allowing Price to settle in will only lead to bad things for the Rangers.
Put the Ball in the Air Against Gallardo
It's no secret that Toronto's high-octane offense relies on its ability to go deep often—the Blue Jays led baseball with 232 home runs, after all—and not a combination of high on-base skills and world-class speed.
The best way to counter that power is to keep the ball on the ground, something Gallardo does quite well (49.3 percent ground-ball rate) and a major reason he's yet to allow a run to the Blue Jays over 13.2 innings of work this season.
Not only is putting the ball in the air crucial to Toronto's power-based attack, but it has a chance to exploit one of Texas' weaknesses—outfield defense. While Rangers outfielders posted a slightly above-average 1.2 UZR/150, they combined for minus-nine defensive runs saved (DRS).
Even if a ball doesn't clear the fences, a shot into the outfield gaps, especially on the artificial turf at Rogers Centre, could prove to be just as damaging.
Get Into the Bullpens
Over the last month of the season, few bullpens were as good as Texas', which led the majors in ERA (2.52). Meanwhile, Toronto's pitched to a 5.08 ERA, the third-worst in the game. But things were flipped in August, with Blue Jays relievers posting a 2.10 ERA, significantly better than Texas' 3.71 mark.
Both clubs added key pieces to their bullpens as the season progressed, switching to inexperienced closers along the way.
While the Rangers might have the advantage in numbers, the Blue Jays have the edge in overall experience, led by 21-year veteran LaTroy Hawkins.
Whichever team is able to get into the opposition's bullpen first may ultimately be the club with the edge in Game 1 of this five-game series.
Unless otherwise noted/linked, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.
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