Don't think for a second that Game 3 of the American League Division Series is a must-win game only for the Toronto Blue Jays.
For while the Blue Jays are on the brink of extinction and need a win to stay alive, the Texas Rangers can ill afford to give their opponents any momentum—or give David Price (potentially) a chance for redemption in Game 4.
Sure, ending the series in three games could hinder Texas' momentum, as the series between Houston and Kansas City is tied at one and assured of a Game 4. But it would also give Adrian Beltre's balky back extra time to recover, the benefits of which can't be overstated.
Neither can we overemphasize the importance of delivering on these keys to success for each club when a pivotal Game 3 gets underway at 8:10 p.m. ET Sunday night.
Both Teams Must Keep Emotions in Check
After a contentious Game 2, it's clear that the Blue Jays and Rangers don't particularly care for each other.
There was the Josh Donaldson/Keone Kela incident, stemming from Donaldson's belief that the Texas reliever was quick-pitching him (there's no rule against it, by the way), which resulted in the clearing of both benches and bullpens.
Not to be outdone, Derek Holland, who is slated to start Game 4 (if needed) for the Rangers, turned a Blue Jays rally towel that had fallen into the Texas bullpen during the game into toilet paper before throwing it back on the ground.
But with so much on the line, neither side can afford to let emotion get in the way of production. Cooler heads must prevail in order for their teams to do the same.
Blue Jays Must Do What They Do Better Than Anyone Else
Crush left-handed pitching.
Toronto's .818 OPS and 124 wRC+ were the top marks in baseball against southpaws, and it just so happens the pitcher the Blue Jays will be facing, Martin Perez, is a lefty. Not only is Perez a lefty, but he's a lefty who doesn't fare too well against right-handed batters.
None of this is to say that Perez is a bad pitcher or someone who is incapable of finding success against the Blue Jays lineup.
But the heart of Toronto's lineup—the right-handed bats of Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Troy Tulowitzki, who have gone a combined 5-for-25—couldn't ask for a better chance to break out of their collective funk.
Struggling Rangers Bats Must Take Advantage of Hitting at Home
On average, offenses are far more productive at home than on the road.
That's really not surprising, as most teams prefer the comfort of home to the rigors of the road. Just look at the away records for this year's playoff field if you need further proof.
Three teams whose World Series aspirations are still alive posted losing records on the road: Houston (33-48), Los Angeles (37-44) and Toronto (40-41). A fourth, New York, finished one game above .500 (41-40) away from Citi Field.
With five key players in the heart of the Rangers lineup hitting below .200 for the series, a return home might just be what they need to get going.
Elvis Andrus, Shin-Soo Choo and Josh Hamilton all see massive jumps in their numbers at home, with Hamilton's perhaps the most extreme. Prince Fielder and Mitch Moreland should have been productive at Rogers Centre, but they weren't. Perhaps they'll continue to ignore the splits and start hitting at home.
Unless otherwise noted/linked, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.
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