As it turns out, $15.8 million is pretty darn enticing.
That seems like an absurdly self-evident statement. But when it comes to MLB's qualifying offer, leaving piles of money on the table has always been the name of the game—until now.
Catcher Matt Wieters of the Baltimore Orioles and left-hander Brett Anderson of the Los Angeles Dodgers accepted qualifying offers before the 5 p.m. ET deadline on Friday, per ESPN's Jim Bowden, one day after Colby Rasmus of the Houston Astros became the first player ever to do so.
Now, all three will be paid that pre-determined $15.8 million salary for next season. And the draft picks their respective teams would have received had they rejected the offer and signed elsewhere will go up in smoke.
This is uncharted territory, and it could dramatically change the dynamic of the qualifying offer process, forcing teams that once viewed it as an easy, automatic path to a pick to rethink their strategy.
First, a quick primer on what the qualifying offer is and how it works, per MLB.com:
For the last three years of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, an all-encompassing, one-year qualifying-offer figure has been determined based on the average of the top 125 salaries in baseball the prior season.
Clubs that make qualifying offers to a free agent and then see them sign with other teams are given one compensatory Draft pick per departing player for the following season. Meanwhile, teams that sign free agents who were given qualifying offers forfeit their highest unprotected Draft picks. The teams with the 10 worst win-loss records the previous year have their first-round picks protected.
In 2014, 12 players received the qualifying offer of $15.3 million, and all 12 rejected it. That followed the pattern established in 2012 and 2013, when nine and 13 players got QOs, respectively, and all said, "Thanks but no thanks."
Which brings us to this year, when QOs were dangled in front of a whopping 20 players. Clearly, we'd reached a tipping point.
Players and their agents had established that a one-year deal, even a lucrative one, wasn't worth forgoing free agency. And teams had responded by saying, in essence, "Sweet, free draft pick!"
Something was going to give, and give it did.
Rasmus, Anderson and Wieters are very different players, but it's worth wondering if any of them will be worth $15.8 million next season.
Rasmus is 29 years old and coming off of a season that saw him club 25 home runs but hit just .238. His new salary represents a significant bump over the $8 million he made last year and will take a hefty bite out of the spendthrift Astros' budget, though owner Jim Crane indicated he'd be willing to loosen the purse strings, per MLB.com's Brian McTaggart:
Speaking of payroll, the Dodgers' is virtually limitless, so shelling out $15.8 million for the 27-year-old Anderson—who posted a 3.69 ERA in 180.1 innings—won't prevent them from pursuing top-tier free-agent targets.
Rasmus and Anderson would have entered a free-agent pool that's swimming with ace-level pitchers and quality outfielders, so their choice to take the money and wait until next year, when there'll be less talent available, makes sense.
Wieters, who will turn 30 in May, is more of a head-scratcher. The three-time All-Star and two-time Gold Glove winner was easily the best catcher on the market and could have seemingly landed a sizable contract, despite the elbow troubles and Tommy John surgery that cost him parts of the 2014 and 2015 seasons. Instead, he's opting to return to Baltimore in 2016, undoubtedly to prove he's injury-free and build his value for a healthier payday next winter.
That's a take shared by CBS Sports' Jon Heyman:
"[What] can be better than playing for the team that I love in the city I love for another year," Wieters said, per Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. "Hopefully, God willing, a healthy year would be great."
Individual motivations aside, one thing is clear: the QO process will never be the same.
We can't crawl inside the heads of the decision-makers in Houston, Los Angeles and Baltimore, but in at least the first two cases, it's a near-certainty that Plan A was to watch the players reject the offer, reel in a draft pick and proceed. Why wouldn't it be? That's how it's gone every other time for three years running.
Now, though, a loaded free-agent class and a QO creeping toward $16 million have conspired to flip the script. Expect fewer QOs to be doled out next season, as gun-shy MLB executives and general managers ask themselves, "Do I really want this guy...for that much?"
It's also possible the system will change. The current collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1, 2016, meaning the rules might be rewritten.
For now, three players who could have tested free agency are instead inked to one-year deals. And three clubs that were no doubt penciling in a pick are suddenly $15.8 million poorer.
Before Thursday, the qualifying offer was little more than a formality, a rubber-stamp, a foregone conclusion. Now—thanks to the trailblazing trio of Rasmus, Wieters and Anderson—the game has changed.
All statistics and salary information current as of Nov. 13 and courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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