Much was expected from Detroit after Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria were added in offseason trades, supposedly giving Jim Leyland a lineup capable of scoring 1,000 runs, but 2008 only produced 1,000 headaches for Leyland and the Tigers’ fans. The lineup wasn’t as good as advertised, but it wouldn’t have mattered if it had been.
Detroit’s pitching staff continued the slide that yielded a disappointing 2007 after a pennant-winning ’06, with even ace Justin Verlander turning in a poor performance. An 0–7 start coupled with a 10–17 May left the Tigers in a hole they couldn’t escape, and both Dontrelle Willis and the Renteria trade provided a season-long black cloud for GM Dave Dombrowski. Miguel Cabrera finished with 37 homers, tops in the AL, but there wasn’t any celebrating after a 74–88 last-place season.
ROTATION
Was the 2006 season a fluke? That certainly looks like the case given the deterioration of Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson and even Verlander. That trio was a combined 21–32 last season, with Verlander losing an AL-high 17 games. Those guys are all back, but Robertson will have to pitch especially well in the spring to be considered for a job.
The cast behind Verlander will include righthander Armando Galarraga, Bonderman, righthander Edwin Jackson and, if he can get out of spring training, Willis, a lefty. It’s a vulnerable group, with only Verlander and Galarraga even remotely regarded as givens. Nothing would mean more than a return to form from Willis, but he lost his fastball in 2007 and his control in ’08. Don’t be surprised if top prospect Rick Porcello winds up making 15 to 20 starts.
BULLPEN
Like starter Kenny Rogers, closer Todd Jones departed after 2008. The Tigers were thwarted in their first two attempts to replace him — Kerry Wood signed with the Indians and J.J. Putz was dealt to the Mets. Dombrowski will be searching for some bargains heading into spring training, but it looks as though righthanders Fernando Rodney, Brandon Lyon, signed as a free agent, and Joel Zumaya will be counted on to handle the eighth and ninth innings.
Zumaya could be a big contributor if his shoulder holds together, but he hasn’t been the same since his Guitar Hero injury. Second-year righthander Freddy Dolsi is penciled into middle relief but could pitch his way into a bigger role. The cast behind those three includes lefties Bobby Seay and Clay Rapada and swing man Zach Miner.
Ryan Perry, the Tigers’ first-round pick in 2008, could open eyes in spring training but probably needs a full season in the minors before being assigned to Leyland’s staff.
MIDDLE INFIELD
As a one-time All-Star, Placido Polanco remains one of baseball’s overlooked treasures. His .350 career on-base percentage, along with his skills as a fielder and situational hitter, make him tremendously valuable. He’s not quite an elite second baseman, but there are at least 25 other teams that would love to have him. He’s in the last year of his contract and could be traded by the deadline, although that would qualify as a bad day for Leyland.
The sure-handed Adam Everett is a major defensive upgrade at shortstop who will be appreciated by Detroit’s pitching staff, if not its fans.
CORNERS
Don’t blame the Tigers’ disappointing 2008 on the Cabrera trade. Despite a slow start and the move to a pitcher’s park, Cabrera justified his reputation as one of baseball’s most feared hitters. He led the AL in home runs (37) and tied for the league lead in total bases while setting a career high in RBIs (127) during his first season in Detroit. His strong second half suggests an even bigger 2009.
It would have been better for the Tigers if Cabrera could have stayed at third base, but he moved across the diamond only 14 games into the season. His fielding and weight shouldn’t be as much of a cause for concern at first as they were at third.
Brandon Inge, the regular catcher in the middle part of ’08, enters spring as the likely third baseman but only because he’s owed $12.9 million over two seasons. His batting average has declined four years in a row. Jeff Larish and the powerful Mike Hessman could wind up as the primary third basemen.
OUTFIELD
Left field, the one unsettled spot in the outfield the last three seasons, is changing again. Carlos Guillen moves out there after migrating from shortstop to first base and third base in 2007 and ’08. He’s a productive hitter, but his contribution won’t mean as much at an offensive position.
The rest of the outfield is state of the art, with Curtis Granderson in center and Magglio Ordoñez in right. Granderson is a weapon as a leadoff hitter, and he runs down balls in the big gaps at Comerica. He slowed down some on the bases last season but still led the AL in triples for the second year in a row. He’s made adjustments at the plate, cutting down on his strikeouts while raising his walk total. Ordoñez is an extremely consistent run producer but no longer covers a lot of ground in right.
CATCHING
Highly regarded as a minor leaguer, Gerald Laird never distinguished himself during his six seasons in Texas. He’s got a solid arm but never threw out an especially high percentage of runners. He has some pop but never hit more than nine homers.
It’s hard to see how he’ll keep Detroit from going backward after having Ivan Rodriguez as the primary catcher for four-plus seasons. The strong-armed Dusty Ryan could push Laird for the job before the season is over.
DH/BENCH
Gary Sheffield wants to get away from Leyland, but didn’t build much of a market for a trade by hitting .225 in the 114 games he played last season. He turned 40 in the offseason and won’t get another contract unless he drinks from the fountain of youth. That seems unlikely as his last 100-RBI season was in 2005. He’s likely to be a distraction off the field, either lobbying for a trade or complaining about some phantom injustice.
His at-bats would be better used if they were given to Marcus Thames, who remains the best hitter in baseball to never play more than 110 games. If Larish doesn’t win the third base job, he will be available to provide punch off the bench.
Ramon Santiago serves as the utility infielder and Inge’s ability to catch could allow Leyland to carry another hitter — possibly Hessman, who delivered 39 homers between Triple-A and Detroit last season. Matt Treanor was signed to be the No. 2 catcher, in part because he worked well with Willis in Florida.
MANAGEMENT
With owner Mike Ilitch seeking the World Series victory that eluded him in 2006, Dombrowski enjoyed staggering resources in 2007-08. An all-out approach missed, however, leaving the franchise burdened by bad contracts and trades that sent Jair Jurrjens to Atlanta and Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller to Florida. Dombrowski has time to fix the mess, as he’s signed through 2011. Leyland isn’t a long-haul guy. This could be his last year if the Tigers don’t make some noise.
FINAL ANALYSIS
This team has established little continuity; only three of the eight spots — second, center and right — are unchanged since the start of 2008. It’s imperative for this team to get off to a fast start and build confidence. While the Tigers don’t have the firepower they did a year ago, they will hold their own at the top and middle of the lineup. But there aren’t many sure things on the pitching staff, so look for lots more high-scoring games — and enough losses to stir Leyland into some candid post-game diatribes.
Carter’s Projected Tigers Lineup
CF Curtis Granderson
2B Placido Polanco
1B Miguel Cabrera
RF Magglio Ordonez
LF Carlos Guillen
DH Gary Sheffield
3B Brandon Inge
C Gerald Laird
SS Adam Everett
Bench
OF Marcus Thames
IF Jeff Larish
SS Ramon Santiago
UT Ryan Raburn
C Matt Treanor
Rotation
RH Justin Verlander
RH Armando Galarraga
RH Jeremy Bonderman
RH Edwin Jackson
DH Dontrelle Willis
Bullpen
Fernando Rodney (Closer)
RH Joel Zumaya
RH Brandon Lyon
RH Freddy Dolsi
LH Nate Robertson
RH Bobby Seay
RH Zach Miner
Carter’s Final Prediction for the Detroit Tigers
5th in American League Central Division
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