Boston has long since had a reputation for jumping the gun when it comes to burying its sports teams. Historically speaking, patience in the Hub has been anything but a virtue.
So when the media vultures starting circling David Ortiz after exactly two games this spring, I was quick to defend the veteran slugger, asking for everyone to hold their horses before rioting in the streets.
But now? Hit the panic button. This team's in trouble.
I'm not saying they're done. It's far too early for a claim like that. Only a few seasons ago the Yankees opened miserably in April and clawed their way back into playoff contention before summer turned to fall. But things are going to have to change.
And soon.
The list or legitimate concerns is a painfully long one considering it's not yet May. Does David Ortiz have any serviceable big league time left in him? Is Mike Cameron a shell of his former self at age 37? Will the starting pitching come around? Who can be relied upon in the bullpen in innings six and seven? And what the heck happened to Manny Delcarmen?
The recent four-game beatdown handed out by the Rays highlighted most of these problems. The Rays are clearly on a quest to repeat their success from two years ago and prove last summer was an aberration, and they appear well equipped to do so. They also happen to highlight all of the Red Sox most glaring problems, most notably in the running game, where it has become painfully obvious that Don Zimmer could steal on Boston's backstops.
It's difficult to find a rational stance at times like this, when the Sox have exactly one win in seven tries against their most lethal divisional competition. But one would assume the starting pitching will come around. Until this morning, Lackey had been lights out, and Lester struggles every year in April. There's reason to believe this could still be one of the better rotations in the game.
And the defense simply can't be this bad. Cameron will misplay a ball like he did the other night probably twice a season, and Beltre is as solid as they come. Once all the new guys get settled, I still believe this will be a well-tuned defense (with the exception of catcher, where it's clear we underrated Varitek's ability).
But the offense is what scares me. I spent the entire offseason telling people not to worry, that the experts were wrong, and there would be plenty of hits and runs. Now I'm not so sure.
And Ortiz is the biggest reason. He had some good hacks the other night against the Rays but has largely looked as formidable as cottage cheese. Marco Scutaro has been up-and-down, and J.D. Drew finally has a batting average to match his demeanor. If none of them start swinging the sticks, this team is in big trouble.
Youkilis and Pedroia have been carrying the team, particularly with Ellsbury out and Victor Martinez struggling. But after you get through the top four in the order there isn't much to fear yet.
I still believe Beltre can produce 20 to 25 homers, and Cameron is likely good for that total, as well. But something has to start happening soon. Because as it stands right now, it looks like the Sox will do fine with the Kansas Citys and the Baltimores but will get smoked by the upper echelon of the A.L.
As the old saying goes, you can't win the division in April, but you can lose it. Unfortunately, the Red Sox are testing that theory earlier than anyone expected.
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