The Boston Red Sox have already pulled off the biggest blockbuster trade of the still-young offseason. In so doing, they sacrificed quite a bit of their prospect depth and financial flexibility.
And yet, that might not have been the end of the Red Sox remaking themselves via blockbuster trades. That might have only been the beginning.
If you missed it, Boston's new-look front office—led by President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski and general manager Mike Hazen—made its first big move last Friday, acquiring flame-throwing closer Craig Kimbrel in exchange for four prospects.
Kimbrel is a huge upgrade for a Red Sox bullpen that needed one. It ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA over the last two seasons, and in the bottom three in average fastball velocity. Kimbrel will help solve both these problems.
The catch, of course, is that Kimbrel is coming to Boston at great cost to the Red Sox.
The Red Sox are taking on the remainder of Kimbrel's contract, which will cost them at least $25.5 million and as much as $37.5 million. And in outfielder Manuel Margot, infielders Javier Guerra and Carlos Asuaje, and left-hander Logan Allen, the Red Sox gave the Padres a package of prospects that includes two members of MLB.com's top 100 (Margot and Guerra).
From Dave Cameron of FanGraphs to Keith Law of ESPN.com, the consensus among the baseball punditry is that the Red Sox paid too much to land Kimbrel. Frankly, it's hard to argue that.
But where the Red Sox are concerned, the price they paid might as well have been small. And because they've shown they're not afraid to deal, we can speculate that the winter's trade routes now go through Boston.
The Red Sox took on a bit of cash to acquire Kimbrel, but don't think they can't spend more money.
Kimbrel's $11.25 million salary for 2016 accounts for only about a third of the $30 million that Alex Speier of the Boston Globe projected the Red Sox can spend this winter. And that's assuming the Red Sox aren't comfortable spending even more than that, which Speier acknowledged as a real possibility.
Beyond the financial flexibility needed to pursue additional blockbusters, the Red Sox also still have plenty of young talent for the task.
The Red Sox still have four prospects in MLB.com's top 100: infielders Yoan Moncada (No. 8) and Rafael Devers (No. 13), left-hander Brian Johnson (No. 40) and outfielder Andrew Benintendi (No. 62). Their system also contains two top-15 picks from the last two drafts in left-hander Trey Ball and infielder Michael Chavis.
Point being: Boston's farm system is still loaded. Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe posits that the pieces the Red Sox moved in the Kimbrel trade were mere inventory, and that the club's farm system "was rated among the top five in the game before the [Kimbrel] trade and it still is."
Further, the Red Sox's farm system doesn't have a monopoly on the organization's young talent. Boston's major league roster is also loaded with young talent, including potentially expendable pieces like catcher Blake Swihart, outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. and left-hander Henry Owens.
All told, the Red Sox are still in a position to fill their big needs on the trade market. And after back-to-back losing seasons, they definitely still have big needs.
The biggest, without question, is their need for a No. 1 starting pitcher. To that end, the Red Sox look like a potential destination for just about every big-name pitcher who's been rumored as trade bait.
That's a list that we know for sure (courtesy of Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports) includes Padres sinker specialist Tyson Ross, and may also include Stephen Strasburg, Matt Harvey, Sonny Gray, Chris Sale and Carlos Carrasco. Given what they have to offer, not one of those names is one the Red Sox can't put together an enticing offer for.
Granted, the Red Sox don't necessarily need to turn to the trade market to fill their need for a top-of-the-rotation starter. The free agent market is loaded with starting pitching, including two legit No. 1s in David Price and Zack Greinke and two No. 1-ish types in Jordan Zimmermann and Johnny Cueto.
No need to tell the boss. Not only does Dombrowski know what's out there, he's on record saying that the free agent market is where he expects to find an ace.
Speaking to Ian Browne of MLB.com, Dombrowski referred to the Kimbrel trade as being "probably our major acquisition for the wintertime as far as the trade market is concerned." With that in the bag, he expects that the Red Sox will fill their need for an ace on the open market.
Could this be Dombrowski at his most sincere? Sure.
Could it also be a bluff? Yes, that too.
Signing a big-money ace will ultimately be up to team owner John Henry, and Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald noted that Henry is typically against handing out nine-figure contracts to free agent pitchers. They're almost always over the age of 30, and thus on the verge of their decline years.
The younger, cheaper trade targets the Red Sox could go after are on the other side of that coin. Hence why it wasn't the least bit surprising to hear Jon Heyman of CBS Sports report earlier in the winter that the Red Sox were very willing to trade top prospects for an ace pitcher. Dealing for an ace rather than signing one is a better fit for the organization's philosophy.
So, teams with ace pitchers to trade will probably only believe Dombrowski's claim about targeting an ace on the open market when they see it. He may be suggesting that the odds favor the Red Sox signing an ace rather than trading for one, but in reality it's probably well short of a foregone conclusion.
And even if the Red Sox do sign an ace instead of trade for one, they'd still have needs they could fill via blockbuster trades.
After the Red Sox finished in the bottom half of the league in power in 2015, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe proposed in October that "the power issue could become bigger than anyone thinks." Knowing that the Red Sox's outfield, in particular, could use more power, it's not hard to imagine the Red Sox aiming their resources toward sluggers like Carlos Gonzalez or Jay Bruce.
It's also possible the Red Sox aren't done using the trade market to remake their bullpen. Dombrowski said earlier this month (via Lauber) that he was interested in adding at least one or two relievers. Kimbrel is one. Perhaps the second could be a Drew Storen, a Jake McGee or even an Aroldis Chapman, who Rosenthal said was one of Boston's more "aggressive" pursuits before it acquired Kimbrel.
Of course, there's also the possibility that the Red Sox will pull off a blockbuster trade without jettisoning any more of their young talent.
Instead, they could look to jettison one or more of their albatross contracts belonging to Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez or Rick Porcello. A trade of any one of them would move the needle, and could see the Red Sox either getting back useful pieces or freeing up cash to pursue useful pieces in other deals.
Options, options and more options. The Red Sox have plenty of them, which means there are all sorts of directions their offseason could go.
But in case you haven't gotten the gist, it's hard to believe the Red Sox are finished with the blockbuster trade market even after dealing for Kimbrel. They still have more than enough resources with which to pursue big trades, and big trades are arguably the best way for them to fill their big needs.
So, any general managers looking to shop big pieces should call Boston first. They won't necessarily be talking to a team that's desperate to deal, but they'll most certainly be talking to a team that's open to deal.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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