First, talk of a possible Jeter offer and now a reported proposal to have the Sandman enter Fenway. Say it ain’t so Mo, say it ain’t so. Apparently it is so but it is not coming to fruition.
It is being reported that the Red Sox have tendered an offer to closer Jonathon Papelbon as of late Thursday night. It looks like the right-handed fireballer will be Shipping Up to Boston for yet another season of America’s pasttime.
The question is: which Papelbon will take the mound? The J-Pap that was so lights out in 2007 that he was deemed untouchable, or the guy that was called from the pen last season to blow a career-high eight saves and post a 3.90 ERA?
Not sure what the answer to this conundrum might be? Neither are the Red Sox. That's why they reportedly offered Yankee closer Mariano Rivera a two-year, $30 million contract.
The Yankees matched that offer, and Rivera chose to stay in the House That George Built. Left out in the cold with no Rivera, the Sox had little choice but to tender Papelbon, who is up for arbitration, a contract. But did they, in fact, actually have a choice?
Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, I present to you Daniel Bard, the “closer in waiting.” He has an arm as strong as Paps, and an ability that is on the upswing rather than the decline. So why do the Sox feel that they have to bring back Jonathan?
The answer may not have to do with how good Bard is or how bad a season Papelbon had. It may have more to do with the rest of the Red Sox bullpen.
It is the notion of all clubs to reach the World Series every year (if this is not the goal than you don’t belong in your job). And because playing late into October is the driving force behind all decisions made in the off-season, for purposes of this column let us take a look at the 2007 World Champion Red Sox team and compare them to last year's team to see why or why not Papelbon is needed in 2011.
In 2007, Jonathan Papelbon was arguably the best closer in the league. He was lights out. He was that guy, you know the one. The guy that when Tito (Terry Francona) called him to the mound in the 9th you could easily turn the TV off knowing with absolute certainty that the Sox just put another W in the win column. But in looking a little deeper, we see what contributed to Papelbon’s ’07 success.
Hideki Okajima was Papelbon’s 8th inning set-up man. A rookie from Japan, he was for all intents and purposes, a secondary thought to the $100 million man, Daisuke Matsuzaka. Though Dice-K was to anchor a stellar starting rotation followed by Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling and the ageless Tim Wakefield, it was Oki that dropped the collective jaw of Red Sox Nation that season.
He became an All-Star in his rookie year. He has a crazy, unorthodox wind-up and delivery that disguises his pitches well, and leaves him staring at third base upon release of the ball.
Who knows how this kid could pick his spots so accurately by staring at Mike Lowell instead of Varitek’s catching mitt? Bottom line, though, is that he could, did and thus he was lights out in the eighth inning, allowing everyone in Red Sox Nation to turn the TV off when Tito made the move to bring in Hideki.
In 2007, we only had to watch seven and sometimes six innings of baseball in order to see a Red Sox win. We, as fans, were given the gift of time. Two whole innings of time to do with what we pleased, knowing that Oki and Pap had the game wrapped up.
Add Josh Beckett’s year (20-7 with 194 Ks) with veteran Mike Timlin at the ready whenever the starters couldn’t go deep, and that equaled a pitching staff that put the Red Sox bats in a position to always win a game.
So, while baseball is a team sport filled with individual statistics, plays and accolades, I submit that the Sox starting pitching always kept them in every game, allowing their bats to start working. This, in turn, caused Terry Francona to go to his pen and retrieve Hideki Okajima in the 8th.
But I will solidly argue that it was the play of Okajima and his stellar season, gave birth to Jonathan Papelbon’s 37 saves and 1.85 ERA. When you have a set-up man who leaves nobody on base and gets you to the 9th quickly and efficiently, as a closer, you have a much easier job.
Now let’s take a look at Papelbon’s previous season. Pap was still one of the game's best closers. His problem was that he was wildly inconsistent. When he was on, he was on but when he blew a save, man, did he really blow it. It wasn’t even close.
Red Sox fans could no longer automatically turn off the TV when he was called into the game. We had to sit and suffer through humiliating three-run 9th inning blown saves. And even when he won, we had to endure him giving up a hit or two and/or put a couple guys on base.
It was like the game of baseball was too easy for someone of his skill level and he needed to spice things up a bit in order to present himself with a challenge. Sort of like a “handicap” for closers. So why the downfall?
Did the starting pitching give the bats a chance to get ahead in most games? Beckett was injured for a majority of the year, and when he wasn’t he was not his normal dominant self. Dice-K has proved to be the $100 million bust. Clay Buchholz finally had a solid breakout year, but was also injured for a portion of the season, thus leaving Jon Lester as our only consistent part of the starting rotation.
And what about the bats of the 2010 Red Sox? They lost slugger Jason Bay to the Mets. Mike Lowell was injured for most of the year and replaced at third by Adrian Beltre. Beltre is not a power hitter, but he had an amazing year at the plate nonetheless.
David Ortiz was missing for the first couple months of the year. Dustin Pedroia was out literally forever (again, literally is defined as figuratively unless otherwise stated) as well as leadoff man Jacoby Ellsbury.
Mike Cameron was injured for quite a while, and monster bat Kevin Youkilis was injured for a portion of the season as well. Catcher and part-time first baseman Victor Martinez brought his monster swing to Boston, and that kid displayed power from both sides of the plate, right up until he got injured as well.
So Terry Francona was working with a patchwork lineup that couldn’t consistently put runs on the board the way Red Sox teams of old were once able to do.
With this in mind, Tito would have to go to his bullpen early in many games. Plus, by the time the sixth and seventh inning came around and Hideki Okajima was called into the game, he brought with him an ERA around 6.00 and a career-low 33 strikeouts. That’s not going to impress anyone in America or Japan.
There were few times that the Sox were able to take a lead past the seventh, and we were usually only ahead by a slim margin. But it was here, in the 8th inning, where the Sox pitching staff truly shined. Enter Daniel Bard.
Bard was Papelbon of 2007. He was lights out. He was automatic. He allowed us, as fans, to turn off the TV in the 8th inning knowing in our heart of hearts that we could turn the TV back on in the 9th and have the opportunity to watch Papelbon blow the save.
I have no idea what the bottom line is here. I am not sure I even have a point except to say that for a sport that showcases such individualism, baseball, in my humble opinion, needs all of the gears to (follow me here) independently work collectively (let it marinate a moment) in order to turn the wheel.
It is difficult to blame Papelbon alone for his worst statistical year in a Sox uniform. However, in the same breath, with a guy like Daniel Bard waiting in the wings and/or Mariano Rivera available for signing, why would you take another $10 million-plus chance on Jonathan Papelbon?
It seems that the Red Sox did take that chance and hopefully, it will pay off for them. Hopefully, he will not pull a Jay Cutler and be bitter about the courting of Mo. But most importantly, let us hope he will make last year's performance stick in the record books as his worst season in the majors.
But let’s face it, what in the hell do I know? If I were so smart I would be pulling the strings for Theo Epstein and not writing about the decisions he gets paid the big bucks to actually make. And if you are wondering, yes, it is comfortable in my armchair general manager seat.
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