The Seattle Mariners will pay Robinson Cano $24 million every year until 2024. That much we know.
The question is, what will Cano give Seattle in return?
For the first two years of his 10-year, $240 million deal, the answer has been an uneasy blend of solid production and disappointment. Yes, Cano made the All-Star team and finished fifth in American League MVP voting in 2014. Last season, he hit .287 with 21 home runs—a perfectly respectable output.
The Mariners, though, need more than respectable output from Cano. They need a franchise player, a guy worthy of a payroll-chewing payday.
They need the guy who posted 30 wins above replacement for the New York Yankees between 2010 and 2013, and established himself as one of the game's elite talents.
Three games into the 2016 campaign, Cano is showing signs. And while the usual small-sample caveats apply, it's decidedly good news for the Mariners.
After clubbing two home runs in Seattle's 9-5 come-from-behind win over the division-rival Texas Rangers on Wednesday, Cano has four homers on the young season, a historic early power binge in the Pacific Northwest, per ESPN Stats & Info:
Last season, by contrast, Cano didn't hit his fourth homer until June 26.
The home runs haven't merely cleared the fence. They've done so in eye-opening fashion, as Fox Sports' Dan Carson noted:
And Cano's not just hitting homers, he is spanking balls. His first home run of the season (coincidentally during his first at-bat) jumped off the wood at 110 mph—with a launch angle of a lean 18 degrees.
Cano didn't hit this ball as much as reprimand it for looking him in the eye.
Here, take a look for yourself:
That swing calls to mind vintage Cano, the player the Mariners thought they were getting when they cut that cartoonish check. What if they have him now? What, exactly, would that mean?
For starters, it'd put a Mariners team—one that just missed the postseason in 2014 before limping to a fourth-place 76-86 finish in 2015—squarely into the October mix.
The M's made some moves this winter under general manager Jerry Dipoto, adding ancillary pieces in the mold of outfielder Nori Aoki, left-hander Wade Miley and the overhaul of a subpar bullpen. But they failed to grab any of the market's top-shelf, instant-impact names.
A resurgent Cano could fill that void.
There's offensive talent around him, including third baseman Kyle Seager and designated hitter Nelson Cruz. And the rotation is anchored as ever by his royal highness Felix Hernandez.
The Rangers and Houston Astros—last year's AL West champs and Wild Card, respectively—remain the nominal division favorites. But there's room for another club to sneak into the picture and challenge the Texas twosome.
If Cano, at age 33, can rediscover his 30-homer pop, that club could be Seattle.
In addition, and perhaps more importantly, a gaudy year from Cano would make that contract look less onerous. The Mariners knew they were paying down the road for production now when they inked Cano. By 2023—his age-40 season—he assuredly won't be a $24 million player.
But if he can crank the clock back and become not merely a good player but a great one, suddenly the Mariners go from fringe contenders to legit threats.
It's early. Crazy things can happen in the span of a few games, and they're often not predictive.
But we're not talking about some no-name scrub playing out of his mind. We're talking about a preternaturally gifted man who, not so long ago, was on the shortlist of the best players on the planet.
Cano underwent hernia surgery in October and said it improved his ability to turn his hips, per MLB.com's Greg Johns. That translated to seven Cactus League homers, and the power surge has carried over.
Seager spoke about Cano's improvement, per Johns:
He told me that [he felt better] when he got here, so he was right. He's a special player. Everybody knows that. When you're playing through injury and nobody knows about it, that's tough. He's good. But you could tell in the spring, you can tell in BP, you can tell just the way he's walking around and moving.
Will it lead to the Mariners, who took two of three from the Rangers in Arlington, moving up in the standings? Time, as ever, will tell.
But if you're searching for game-changing storylines in the AL West and the Junior Circuit in general, keep your eye on this one. And if you're a Mariners fan assessing the state of the franchise, let yourself soak in a little renewed optimism.
Cano will take $240 million from Seattle's coffers. That we know. Suddenly, there's hope that those bucks may translate into some serious bang.
All statistics current as of April 6 and courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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