I am a Barry Zito fan. He is not worth his $126 million contract. He is a competent starter. Replacing him would be expensive and ineffective.
Point Proven.
Just kidding.
San Francisco Chronicle writer Bruce Jenkins has stirred up a bit of controversy over his article claiming inside sources are fed up with Barry Zito to the point of releasing him or attempting to buy out his contract prior to opening day.
There are a few reasons to believe this is the wrong plan of action for the Giants.
The MLB players association does not function like that of the NBA and therefore it would be almost impossible for the Giants to pay anything less than the $64.5 million remaining on his contract. It would be a rather costly endeavor to pay Zito his full contract, then try to find some one else to fill his spot.
He is not pitching up to his contract, that is certain and has been for the entirety of his tenure with the Giants. But is he really as bad as he seems or is it the circumstances?
When Zito was signed prior to the 2007 season the Giants rotation consisted of Jason Schmidt, Matt Morris, Noah Lowry, Matt Cain and Jamey Wright.
Schmidt and Morris and Wright were dismissed, while Lincecum and Sanchez were projected to fill two spots in the rotation by mid season. While Cain and Lowry were coming off of decent years there was no way to project how Sanchez and Lincecum would pitch at the major league level.
As it turned out Sanchez appeared primarily out of the bullpen and Lincecum made 24 starts with a 4.00 ERA. Suffice it to say, the Giants didn't have a leader in the rotation.
Along came Barry Zito, fresh off a gutsy defeat of Johan Santana in the 2006 ALDS.
His 16-10 record and 3.83 ERA weren't sparkling, but still mostly consistent with his career numbers. Sabean overreacted to the need of a quality starter and threw way too much money at a pitcher who preferred to remain in the Bay Area.
The rest is history. How could the Giants have predicted how well Sanchez, Cain, Lincecum and Bumgarner would do in the same rotation?
Let's say, only Lincecum was the pitcher he was today, and the remainder of Cain, Sanchez and Bumgarner were inconsistent last year and posted sub .500 records and plus four ERA's.
Zito would still be singled out due to his salary but he wouldn't be crucified if he was still the second best starter. The fact is he's not, but if the Giants had an average starting rotation his faults wouldn't be as magnified.
He is still serviceable, and finding a replacement that would perform better is not likely to be available on the cheap. Their are a dearth of free agent starters available right now, (I still can't believe the Yankees took a flier on Bartolo Colon) and to get one the Giants likely would need to shell out a few bucks.
I believe their is a false assumption that any starter plucked from Fresno or lower would be able to pitch just as well as Zito. In previous years that would be the case (Bumgarner, Alderson, etc), however the system is quite dry right now with Clayton Tanner's name being thrown out. (By the way his AA numbers are similar to Zito's 2010 MLB numbers.)
Zito's 2010 record of 9-14 isn't sparkling, but he did get the lowest run support of all Giants starters (5.28) and 65th of 76 NL starters with over 100 innings pitched.
Sanchez got 7.87 per start for comparison. He also started with a 7-2 record and 3.10 ERA before run support and wildness crashed his record and ERA.
To get rid of Zito and find someone who could post similar numbers would cost the Giants too dearly to consider. The Giants would likely need to take on more than $50 million of the remaining salary to interest any potential trading partners and would probably get an average fourth or fifth starter in return along with perhaps one middling prospect.
One idea is to ship him to the A's. They have five people fighting for the fifth starter spot so why not give them Zito for a few of their prospects? The Giants would still need to kick in $15 million per year or more to make the numbers work and more unproven pitchers are certainly no guarantee of success.
It's going to be nearly impossible to get rid of the massive contract so they might as well make him work for it. Over the next few season the Giants are going to have to make some hard decisions as it seems unlikely they'll be able to keep Cain, Lincecum and Sanchez past the 2012 season.
Zito really hurts in this case but dumping him just for the sake of getting rid of him will only open up another hole in the rotation that needs filling.
Sanchez and Cain become free agents after 2012 and will expect Lincecum-like contracts, who will be due a raise on his $14 million 2011 salary in the off season.
There are no easy answers when it comes to Zito and his albatross of a contract.
The best option is to ride it out like a wave and hope he can find a way to replicate his first half numbers of last year. If that concept is just too hard to stomach, I hope paying for him to play for another team is a little more palatable.
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