1. Why should you send a greeting card to Canada?
Welcome back, Canada! The Toronto Blue Jays end their 22-year postseason drought, longest in the majors, when they host the Texas Rangers in a division series. Last time a postseason game was played in Canada, Joe Carter was floating around as if the SkyDome (that's what they called it back then, really) was the moon and there was no gravity.
When the Blue Jays last played in the postseason:
• The Tampa Bay Rays and Arizona Diamondbacks did not exist.
• Republican politicians in the United States were not engaged in a heated debate regarding our border but were watching Toronto catcher Pat Borders.
• Favorite Canadian export Justin Bieber wasn't even born yet (he would come along on March 1, 1994).
• The current manager of the Minnesota Twins, Paul Molitor, was named the Most Valuable Player of Toronto's '93 World Series win over Philadelphia.
• The oldest active player in the majors had not even made his major league debut…but reliever LaTroy Hawkins (42) will be on hand in Toronto's bullpen to help push the Jays along.
The fun begins in Rogers Centre (yes, what SkyDome now is called) with Game 1 on Thursday. Texas pitching had better bring its A-game: Behind MVP favorite Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki and Co., Toronto's run differential of plus-221 is almost 100 runs ahead of the next-closest, St. Louis' plus-122.
When the series moves to Texas, ticket holders should bring their gloves: Globe Life Park in Arlington ranks as the fifth-most hitter-friendly park in the majors in 2015, according to ESPN's MLB Park Factors.
2. What does Mark Twain have to do with anything?
We may be spending a lot of time in his native state of Missouri: On Sunday, the St. Louis Cardinals secured home-field advantage throughout the National League playoffs by finishing 100-62, best record in the majors. And the Kansas City Royals secured home-field advantage throughout the month by finishing 95-67, best record in the American League.
And, of course, the American League has home-field advantage in the World Series for winning the All-Star Game. (Stop! Wait! Do not message us over that! Direct your complaints to Commissioner Rob Manfred, Major League Baseball, New York, N.Y…)
"To succeed in life, you need two things: ignorance and confidence," Twain once wrote.
Close your eyes and substitute the word "October" for "life," and you can almost hear Joe Maddon delivering that message to his young Cubs or Clint Hurdle doing the same to his Pirates.
3. So, what are you doing Wednesday night?
If there is one moment early this month that you cannot miss, should not miss, will be a complete and utter disaster if you miss…it is Cubs at Pirates in Wednesday night's National League Wild Card Game.
No surprise, Chicago is starting newly minted ace Jake Arrieta, who went 16-1 with a 0.86 ERA and 147 strikeouts against just 27 walks over his final 20 starts. Since June 21, he's hit as many homers as he's allowed (two).
And the Pirates are starting Gerrit Cole, who went 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA this season.
How about the Pirates: Last year they were forced to face San Francisco's Madison Bumgarner in the NL Wild Card Game; now they get Arrieta. The Cubs' ace throws a fastball, curve, changeup and slider, and he is throwing them all with confidence and domination.
One big key for the Pirates on Wednesday: Lefty stick Pedro Alvarez must have a good game, because chances are Arrieta will buzz-saw through a heavily right-handed Pittsburgh lineup. This season, he is 3-1 with a 0.75 ERA in five starts against the Pirates, fanning 33 and walking only five over 36 innings pitched.
Alvarez? This year against Arrieta, he went 1-for-9 (.111), with three strikeouts. But Andrew McCutchen went 4-for-12 (.333) against Arrieta, with a .467 on-base percentage.
Moral of that story: To raise the Jolly Roger, Cutch is going to need some help.
4. Is PNC Park the permanent host of the NL Wild Card Game?
No, it only seems that way. This is the third consecutive year the Pirates have hosted: against Cincinnati in 2013, San Francisco in 2014 and the Cubs this year.
5. Where are Bryce Harper and Mike Trout?
Ugh. Don't ask. The Nationals' implosion was more spectacular than any Fourth of July fireworks show you've ever seen. The Angels couldn't overcome practically getting skunked in the month of August. Two of the best talents of their generation are threatening to be wasted if the Nats and Angels don't get their acts together.
Alas…while the presumptive NL MVP-elect sits at home, the likely AL winner, Toronto's Josh Donaldson, is ready for prime time. Those who haven't seen much of him in October will join the rest of us in wondering how in the name of Charles O. Finley the Athletics could have traded him last winter.
The two leading candidates for American League Comeback Player of the Year have their October passports, the Yankees' Alex Rodriguez and the Rangers' Prince Fielder. While A-Rod finally started to look his age late in the season, Fielder, who missed most of 2014 because of neck surgery, is completely rejuvenated. Not only is he getting it done on the field, he is also re-energized after last summer's free time made him realize how much he missed the game. He's smiling again. And teammates say they've never seen him happier.
October veteran Jimmy Rollins is back, wearing Dodgers blue, but don't be surprised to see manager Don Mattingly use rookie Corey Seager at shortstop. The kid is the real deal and can do more things than Rollins.
Seager will not be the only impact rookie at shortstop: How about Houston's Carlos Correa? Rangy at 6'4", like A-Rod, Correa, along with Cleveland's Francisco Lindor (maybe next October, kid), is in line to emerge as the game's next great shortstop.
6. What if the Cubs actually win it all?
Let's hold that thought, with the promise that, as things develop this month, we'll dive deeply into whether the north side of Chicago would explode to the point where half of it would land in Milwaukee.
But for now, let's just say this because I know you're dying to know: If Arrieta, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler and Co. do the unthinkable and happen to end the Cubs' 107-year World Series drought (1908), the Cleveland Indians at 68 (last World Series victory in 1948) would be next up on the clock.
7. Drinking games with the Yankees, anybody?
Even if it's just a lowly wild-card spot and not a division title, you'd better believe the Yankees are thrilled to return to October for the first time since 2012. And you have to admire their cohesiveness.
"This team is on the same page," backup catcher John Ryan Murphy quipped when the Yanks clinched. "And that page is drinking."
8. Should we tell these guys there is no Great Pumpkin?
Most games played, career, without ever having set foot into a playoff game? Our friends at Baseball-Reference.com keep a list, and from that I exported those who are still active. So make sure to give these guys an extra-loud cheer when you see them this month:
Alex Rios, Royals—1,691 games.
Jose Bautista, Blue Jays—1,403 games.
Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays—1,353 games.
Chase Headley, Yankees—1,122 games.
Adam Lind, Brewers—1,102 games.
Which of those names is not like the others? Um, sorry, Adam. Maybe next year.
9. Which is the best series?
Mets-Dodgers, from here. Because the focus will be squarely on the mound.
The Mets have the phenomenal young pitchers: Jacob deGrom will start Game 1, Noah Syndergaard will go in Game 2 and Matt Harvey will start Game 3. The Mets then will see where they are and see how Steven Matz's back is doing. Matz or Bartolo Colon could start Game 4. Or, if the Mets are facing elimination, they could bring deGrom back on short rest.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, have a phenomenal, two-headed veteran monster: Clayton Kershaw is expected to start Game 1 and Zack Greinke Game 2. After that? Let's just say Tommy Lasorda is frantically trying to get an audience with the Pope in search of a miracle.
It would be tempting to call this the Old Guard vs. the New Guard…except, at 27, Kershaw is the same age as deGrom and only a year older than Harvey. So there's that.
10. Where in October will it be hottest?
No, I'm not talking about the weather. The talk here is pressure, and nowhere is there more of it than in Dodger Stadium.
When the Dodgers were bounced by St. Louis for a second consecutive October last year, they kicked general manager Ned Colletti upstairs. They were so angry they went out and poached new president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman from Tampa Bay, stole GM Farhan Zaidi from Oakland and signed free-agent executive (and former Padres and Diamondbacks GM) Josh Byrnes to join the front office think tank.
Failing a run into the World Series this year, there is heavy speculation that Mattingly will be the one made to disappear this autumn. Unless, of course, the ball bounces the Dodgers' way, they win it all and he becomes a hero. Yeah, crazy game.
Meanwhile, for all Kershaw has done for the Dodgers, and we're talking a combo plate of MVP and Cy Young in 2014 and Cy Youngs in 2011 and 2013 as well, his October struggles are beginning to be a thing.
In his past four postseason starts, all against the Cardinals, he is 0-4, with a 7.15 ERA.
Career postseason, over 11 games (eight starts), he is 1-5, with a 5.12 ERA. Plenty of award winners have had their struggles in October, such as Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez, but rarely has it been as mystifying as what Kershaw has gone through. This year, he became the first pitcher since 2002 to strike out 300 hitters in a season. Now, is this the autumn where he can finally be fitted for Mr. October cleats?
Regarding his team, here's the thing: Everyone talks about the Dodgers not winning a World Series since 1988. The thing that's most amazing to me is that this franchise hasn't even played in a World Series since 1988.
11. Where are October's biggest secret weapons likely to be found?
Right here:
Adam Wainwright, Cardinals: Thought to be out for the year after blowing out an Achilles in April, the swiftness of Wainwright's comeback was stunning. He joined the St. Louis bullpen last week and will pitch in relief this month. Last time he threw a pitch in relief in October, he was closing Game 7 of the 2006 National League Championship Series against the Mets, and he froze Carlos Beltran with a curve to send the Cards to the World Series. Given the time and place, it might have been the single best pitch I have ever seen.
Yasiel Puig, Dodgers: Remember him? Out with a hamstring injury for all of September, Puig suddenly returned a few days ago, either smelling October glory or pumpkin lattes; I'm not sure which. His re-emergence immediately brings up all of those chemistry questions that sometimes haunt clubhouses. Will he be a distraction? Will he behave? Here's something: If Puig smashes a few homers and produces some runs, everything will be groovy. If not…
Delino DeShields Jr., Rangers: We think of Texas and we immediately think of Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder, Elvis Andrus and Shin-Soo Choo. But when the Rangers came to life earlier this season, one of the things that ignited them came when manager Jeff Banister inserted DeShields into the leadoff slot in the batting order. He has hit leadoff in each of his last 87 games in Texas, and overall when he's in the lineup, the Rangers have gone 66-44. He leads the American League with 12 bunt hits.
Ben Zobrist, Royals: The Royals were here last year, racing all the way from a wild-card slot to the World Series. Zobrist was not with the Royals then; heck, he wasn't with the Royals for the first half of this season. He's hit seven homers since coming over to Kansas City from Oakland on July 28 and has plenty of playoff experience with Tampa Bay.
12. Who can't survive without Mom's homemade cookies?
Look out, Rangers: Toronto's 53-28 record in Rogers Centre is the best home record in the American League, tied with the Astros. Next-best: the Royals (51-30).
In the NL, St. Louis and the Dodgers (both 55-26 at home) are the toughest when sleeping in their own beds, followed by Pittsburgh (53-28).
13. Dallas Keuchel on short rest vs. the Yankees; who ya got?
The Yankees are 27-23 this season against left-handed starters, and Keuchel is 5-8 with a 3.77 ERA in 15 starts on the road this season (compared with 15-0 with a 1.46 ERA in 18 home starts).
The plucky Astros may regret Sunday's loss to Arizona very soon. Had they won, they would have earned home-field advantage in Tuesday's AL Wild Card Game.
14. So who owes what to whom?
Where the payrolls of the 10 playoff teams check in for 2015 (the number in front is the rank among the 30 MLB teams), per USA Today:
1. Dodgers: $230 million
2. Yankees: $213 million
8. Rangers: $145 million
12. Cardinals: $120 million
15. Cubs: $117 million
16. Blue Jays: $116 million
17. Royals: $113 million
20. Mets: $100 million
25. Pirates: $86 million
29. Astros: $69 million
15. So, who's going to win?
Great thing about this October is, there is no prohibitive favorite. But somebody from the NL Central would be a safe choice: The Cardinals (100-62), Pirates (98-64) and Cubs (97-65) finished with the three best records in baseball.
How good was this division? Why, it turned the Pirates' Neal Huntington, usually an under-the-radar kind of GM, into a quipster over the weekend (and great point, too); MLB.com's Adam Berry shared the quote:
Scott Miller covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.
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