A free-agent storm is on the way, some big names can't find homes and some unintended victims of MLB's new CBA...
1. Forecast Two Years From Now: Nuts
Talk about attention deficit disorder. As free agents Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista go door-to-door asking, "Brother, can you spare a free-agent contract?" this winter, one reason things are moving so slowly is because even the industry's executives are looking ahead to the free-agent class two years from now.
It may be the best ever: Bryce Harper, who won the 2015 NL MVP award, will be on the market. So will Josh Donaldson, who won the 2015 AL MVP award. Manny Machado, who finished fourth in AL MVP voting in 2015 and fifth in 2016, is free. So, too, are starters Matt Harvey and Dallas Keuchel, and closer Zach Britton.
If that isn't enough, Clayton Kershaw has an opt-out clause in his Los Angeles Dodgers contract that winter, as does David Price from the Boston Red Sox.
Harper and Machado will be entering the free-agent market at the age of just 26. Britton and Keuchel will be nearly 31, Donaldson 32, Harvey 29 and, if they use the opt-out, Kershaw will be 30 and Price the old man of the lot at 33.
Executives are making roster moves right now with an eye to 2018. It's one reason why the Washington Nationals acquired Adam Eaton from the White Sox: They are leveraging themselves for the real possibility that they will lose Harper to free agency given that he is expected to demand a deal worth $400 million or more.
It's why, other than the Aroldis Chapman signing last week, the New York Yankees mostly are concentrating on young talent and short-term veterans (like signing Matt Holliday to a one-year deal this winter for $13 million).
The executives know what's up ahead, a winter unlike any of us has ever seen.
"As we bring more youthful executives into the game, there seems to be a tide to young players," superagent Scott Boras, who represents Harper, Britton and Harvey in that group, said at the winter meetings last Wednesday at National Harbor, Maryland. "I think the information that is going to ownership is that those players who are 26-, 27-, 28-year-old free agents are very, very highly coveted.
"A lot of clubs have now marshaled their positioning to that age group."
Every club is going to have money to spend for the foreseeable future, too, with the game expected to surpass $10 billion in revenues in 2016 once the final figures are in. Of course, without a salary cap and with different teams taking in more money than others, some clubs still will be far more equal than others. But the way Boras sees it, each club likely soon will have $200 million or more of revenue at its disposal before even selling tickets.
"Consequently, clubs who have the ability to attract a major superstar are going to be far more in than in prior times because of the success of the game," Boras said.
Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman happened to be talking about his own free agent this winter, closer Kenley Jansen, but he could have been speaking about anybody in any year when he told reporters last week, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register: "The free-agent market plays out to the point of doing more than what you rationally want to do.
"If you do what you rationally want to do, you will finish third on every free agent."
Who knows, perhaps there will be more fallout, too. The expiration of Machado's contract coincides with the last year of Baltimore manager Buck Showalter's deal.
"We've got control of him for two, two years?" Showalter said last week. "This year and one more. That's when my contract runs out. Timing's everything."
Everyone laughed at the notion that Showalter could cruise on out the door with his best overall player before the Orioles are weakened immensely in the post-Machado term.
Of course, laughs come easy now, two years ahead of what for some clubs surely will be Armageddon. The laughing will be more difficult for a lot of people when the winter meetings come to Las Vegas (of course they would be there, right?) in December 2018.
2. World's Greatest Athletes, MLB and…Coffee?
We already have Boras down as a staunch advocate of the free-market system. He long has been vehemently opposed to the slotting system for determining bonuses that can be offered to amateurs drafted each June. And in discussing his reaction to the new collective bargaining agreement, he not surprisingly expressed displeasure with the part of the deal that places a hard cap on international amateur signing bonuses that ranges between $4.75 million in the first year of the agreement to $5.25 million or $5.75 million.
Boras' gripe: Baseball is waging a battle with other sports for the best athletes in the world, and with the new CBA capping the money available, he thinks those athletes will gravitate hard to other sports. Of course, limitations on signing bonuses take a bite out of the paydays of agents everywhere, as well.
"Most upsetting thing to me is that baseball only has so much earth where the game is played," he said last week. "We only have a few cultures that really, there's an opportunity to play baseball in the world. If you go back to the 1930s, the most popular sports in the United States were track and field, boxing, horse racing and baseball. Now, baseball's included, but we have three other sports in hockey, football and basketball that have eroded the others.
"I think we have to be very cautious. If baseball's not out pursuing the best athletes in the world, you've gotta really look at this and say, 'What are we doing?' I was raised on a farm and water's valuable. If you want to save water and you don't use it on your crops, you don't have crops."
In making his pitch, Boras mentioned not only NBA and NFL signing bonuses, but the college baseball landscape, too.
"We have a grand disadvantage in something out of baseball's control, and that is the number of college scholarships [available]," Boras said. "We have 11,000 scholarships in football, we have 3,000 in baseball. And you have a young man who's 6'6" and they need an immediate value. He's 14, 15 years old and his family is looking for immediate value. He's looking for a college scholarship or he's looking for a bonus. And with baseball being last in offering those scholarships, our industry has to look ahead in getting the greatest athletes in the world.
"We have to consider that in how we compete with other sports. So when we get into CBA and even looking beyond that, we have to say as an industry, we're making $10 billion, should we really build the Berlin Wall to youth? We just cut off the American players and limited them well below the NBA and NFL. And now we're doing it with the Latin players as well."
Boras doesn't think much of the current luxury-tax system, either, in which high-spending teams are taxed a percentage of their payroll over a certain threshold (It's been $189 million, it will rise during this CBA).
"Under the old CBA, I think the old luxury tax was the Center for Disease Control," he quipped. "And now the luxury tax should be Starbucks. Because if you want championship coffee, you'd better be visiting there often."
3. You're a Mean One, Mr. Grinch Bautista
Whenever Joey Bats signs his free-agent deal, the anticipation is that he will quote actress Sally Field's Oscar acceptance speech from years ago and exclaim to the signing team and city, "You like me, you really like me!"
By far, the most entertaining moment at last week's winter meetings came when general manager Dan Duquette told the Baltimore Sun's Eduardo A. Encina that though Bautista's agent reached out to the club, the Orioles wouldn't even consider signing Bautista because, essentially, Baltimore fans hate him.
"That's true," Duquette said. "That's true. The agent called and I said, 'Really? Jose is a villain in Baltimore and I'm not going to go tell our fans that we're courting Jose Bautista for the Orioles because they're not going to be happy.'"
4. Ruffled Feathers of the Week
Angry that the Washington Nationals acquired outfielder Adam Eaton because the move likely meant the club would shift Trea Turner from center field to shortstop and himself to the bench, Danny Espinosa skipped the club's annual Winterfest on Saturday.
By Saturday night, the Nationals had shipped Espinosa to the Los Angeles Angels, who were in the market for a second baseman.
Meanwhile, at Pittsburgh's PirateFest over the weekend, All-Star Andrew McCutchen admitted that the very public rumors that the club nearly had him dealt to the Washington Nationals this month can't help but bother him.
"I'd be lying to you if I told you none of this bothered me," McCutchen said, via the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Stephen J. Nesbitt. "Of course it did. I'm human. If someone cuts you off while you're driving, you get bothered. To have my name talked about possibly getting traded, yeah, of course that got to me.
"We all have these dreams of being something. My dream is to be a Pirate my whole career. My dream is still to win multiple World Series. We all have those dreams. Sometimes, with my name being popped up there, it did kind of make me think, whoa, those dreams could be altered a little."
At age 29, McCutchen had one of the worst seasons of his career, hitting .256/.336/.430 with 24 homers and 79 RBI. The days of his 2013 NL MVP award seem further and further away. Among other things, Pirates manager Clint Hurdle has talked to him about the possibility of moving to a corner outfield spot, likely right field, as his defensive metrics have declined as well.
"Andrew is a professional guy that I think keeps things in a pretty good place," Hurdle said at the winter meetings last week. "I think it's another part of his career that he's getting to work through, walk through, and he's got a great support system. That's one of the things I shared with him, is there anything I can do to help lessen the distraction, to be there, talk, whatever."
McCutchen is still young enough to resurrect his career. The 2017 season, wherever he is, will be enormous.
5. Unintended Labor Consequences
As part of the new CBA, the players' per diem meal money will shrink to $30 per day from $105 per day because, among other reasons, each club now will be required to provide a clubhouse chef for players who increasingly eat in the first-rate clubhouses in the new ballparks.
While few folks are likely to feel sorry for the players, there is fallout that will hit the blue-collar ranks, and it is unfortunate: Clubhouse attendants stand to lose thousands of dollars annually in tips each summer. And ancillary members of a team's traveling party, who don't make nearly as much as the players and depend on the per diem as a way to supplement their modest salaries, are taking a hit, too.
Traveling media relations folks, for example, who sometimes work 18 hours a day during the season and average only between $40,000 and $50,000 in salary, qualify for per diem and because of this will lose some $5,000 or so in income.
Media relations directors can make up to $80,000 or $100,000 per year, but the vast majority of assistants who work 80-100 hours a week and are away from home half the summer earn only half of that.
Meanwhile, visiting clubhouse attendants who are in the $40,000 salary range and depend on generous tips to get beyond just scraping by will be hit extremely hard now, too.
Here's hoping (but not expecting) that the individual clubs will move in to help ease the financial loss for the behind-the-scenes personnel who help make the game go but don't share in the wealth. It's probably too much to ask, but it's the right thing to do.
6. Weekly Power Rankings
1. Christmas shopping: The hustle, the bustle, can put you in a foul mood more quickly than Orioles fans thinking about Bautista.
2. Edwin Encarnacion: So, can we show you some real estate in Cleveland, Edwin?
3. La La Land: Darling of the Golden Globe nominations announced this week, the musical tells the story of Corey Seager and Kershaw singing and dancing and wooing free agents Jansen and Justin Turner back to the Dodgers for another championship run in 2017. Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone are in there somewhere, too, I think.
4. Snow days: The absolute best, the Mike Trout of ways to get out of school. Even well beyond my school years, when I hear snow has caused school closings, wherever I am, I can't help but smile and feel 16 again.
5. Bob Dylan and the Nobel Prize: A no-show at Saturday's ceremony in Sweden, he's like the Manny Ramirez of the Nobel Prize ceremony.
7. Plus, 2017, too?
Lord over the peeps at your favorite watering hole or neighborhood basement with this one:
The answers: Koji Uehara closed out the 2013 World Series for the Red Sox, Wade Davis (just acquired from Kansas City last week), who closed out the 2015 World Series for the Royals and, of course, this year's last-pitch thrower, Mike Montgomery.
Question now is: Can the Cubs win again in 2017 and employ relievers who tossed the clinching pitch in four of the past five World Series?
8. Chatter
• Yankees GM Brian Cashman may have awarded Chapman a record-setting contract for a closer at five years and $86 million, but he isn't jumping for joy. The part he's not thrilled about is Chapman's ability to opt out after the third year, which is just when the Yankees envision having a chance to begin their next dynasty. "Oh, I don't like it," Cashman said during a conversation after the Rule 5 draft just before departing the winter meetings last Thursday. "It's just, at the end of the day, I know that the competition we were up against were giving opt-outs in Years 1 and 2. So at least we were able to put it in Year 3."
• The Tigers' retooling effort is on hold. They did not trade J.D. Martinez, despite strong talk that San Francisco is interested. They did not deal Ian Kinsler, despite the fact that the Los Angeles Dodgers have a clear need there. Justin Verlander stayed in Detroit while the White Sox traded ace Chris Sale. And USA Today's Bob Nightengale reported that Detroit GM Al Avila did not receive one phone call on slugger Miguel Cabrera, signifying that maybe Detroit will wind up keeping him and paying the $220 million owed him over the next seven years.
• With Ian Desmond in the fold and Mark Trumbo maybe on the horizon, the Colorado Rockies, who have endured six consecutive losing seasons and have not played in the playoffs since 2009, are spending money on free agents for the first time since Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle. Must be the Denver school system.
• The Dodgers are still in the market for a second baseman, and one intriguing question is whether new Twins executives Derek Falvey (president of baseball operations) and Thad Levine (general manager) will deal Brian Dozier following his 42-homer season. "As Derek and Thad have said, we have to be open-minded about just about anything that people would bring to us just to try to increase our chances of doing what we need to do both in the short term as well as going forward," said Twins manager Paul Molitor at the winter meetings.
• Harper doesn't have much time this month for all of the speculation on his price tag when he becomes a free agent in 2018 because he's speculating on his own future this week: He's getting married in San Diego.
9. The Devil(s) Made Him Do It
The Nationals' Winterfest was highly entertaining over the weekend simply in calculating who wasn't there. Angry Espinosa wasn't the only no-show:
Duke basketball was bragging about its celebrity fan, too:
9a. Rock 'n' Roll Lyric of the Week
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all. Thanks for reading this year, thanks for making Bleacher Report such a go-to place and if you haven't seen this Christmas video, you must (it's Nobel Prize committee endorsed!).
"Who's got a beard that's long and white?
"Santa's got a beard that's long and white.
"Who comes around on a special night?
"Santa comes around on a special night.
"Special night, beard that's white
"Must be Santa, must be Santa,
"Must be Santa, Santa Claus."
— Written by Hal Moore and Bill Fredericks
Scott Miller covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report. Follow Scott on Twitter and talk baseball.
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