Silly me. I thought Fifty Shades of Grey was a documentary detailing Oakland starter Sonny Gray's repertoire. Clearly, pitchers and catchers cannot report quickly enough (preach it, you snow-buried New Englanders!) ...
1. Five Best Spring Storylines
Load up on the sunblock and grab your Maui Jims, the best time of year is here ...
Can anyone here put a rally together? There was a good reason why free-agent bats were snapped up long before Jon Lester and Max Scherzer this winter: Suddenly, it's become far more difficult to score runs than to track Taylor Swift's boyfriends.
The average number of hits per game last year (8.56) was the lowest for a big league contest over a full 162-game season since 1972 (8.19). The average number of runs per game (4.07) checked in at its lowest total since 1976 (3.99). No wonder Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez (Red Sox), Russell Martin (Blue Jays), Adam LaRoche (White Sox), Nelson Cruz (Mariners), Michael Cuddyer (Mets) and Billy Butler (Athletics) all signed before any hotshot pitcher. Forecast throughout Arizona and Florida this spring: lots and lots of extra batting practice, with the barometer falling.
The Chicago Cubs and Anthony Rizzo's prediction: Not that optimism is off the charts for all things Cubs, but rumor has it that even Bon Appetit is about to rank the Billy Goat Tavern's cheeseburgers as the country's best. Rizzo predicted a National League Central title not long after new rock-star manager Joe Maddon said hello in November by announcing that he was going to be talking playoffs this spring.
Reality? With Lester aboard, Rizzo and Starlin Castro another year older, Javier Baez's promise and Kris Bryant on deck, the Cubs should have their best club since Theo Epstein walked on water across Lake Michigan to take charge. If all goes well, pencil the Cubs in for a run at an NL wild-card slot—unless they beef up behind Lester (Jake Arrieta, Jason Hammel, Kyle Hendricks, Travis Wood). Their late-winter failure to sign James Shields, who signed with San Diego, might have been a deal-breaker.
The Artist Formerly Known as Alex Rodriguez: First off, can we all agree that, much like with the Kardashians, the media is making a far bigger deal over this relative to where the talent level currently is? Guilty!
OK, then. While his presence will overshadow the Yankees at times this spring, we're talking about a broken-down shell of a player who will turn 40 in July, sat out all of last season and played in only 44 games two summers ago. The biggest story here is this: A-Rod starts with 654 career homers, just seven from passing Willie Mays (660) and moving into fourth place all-time (behind Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron and Babe Ruth). And contract clauses, which the Yankees would love to find an escape from, call for an extra $30 million when he hits milestone homers (660, 714, 755, tying and then breaking the all-time homer record).
Nationals alert: Killer rotation plus talent around the diamond equals first World Series appearance? Two scouts in recent conversations have oohed and aahed over Scherzer, Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Doug Fister and Gio Gonzalez enough in recent conversations that both, independent of each other, brought up the Seattle Mariners' 116-win season in 2001. Nobody goes 162-0, but the Nats, with a potentially historically great rotation, will have a chance to win every night. And Tanner Roark is a sensational option as a sixth man if one of the first five starters goes down for a spell.
Dramatic changes in NL West: You've got Matt Kemp in San Diego. Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick in Los Angeles. Dizzying roster reconstructions. New front offices in Los Angeles, San Diego and Arizona. And the Giants have won three of the past five World Series. No question, the NL West right now is baseball's most dynamic division.
After failing (again) to advance to their first World Series since 1988, the Dodgers ushered Ned Colletti upstairs and named Andrew Friedman president of baseball operations, Josh Byrnes senior vice president of baseball operations and Farhan Zaidi as general manager. In one nutso 24-hour period at the winter meetings in December, the new brain trust reeled off six transactions (including two three-team trades) and moved 17 different players in or out of the organization (both, in a couple of instances).
All that looked like child's play once new Padres GM A.J. Preller got cranked up and acquired Kemp, Justin Upton, Derek Norris, Wil Myers, Will Middlebrooks and James Shields. Talk about major overhaul: Six of the eight positions on the field this year will feature new Padres.
Over in Arizona, meanwhile, still-new president of baseball operations Tony La Russa has a new GM in Dave Stewart as the Diamondbacks scratch for relevancy again.
2. Five Best Off-The-Field Spring Storylines
Hey, we don't owe Chris Rock royalties for his movie called Top Five, do we?
New commissioner Rob Manfred: This is more significant than simply the new autograph on the game balls, you know. Bud Selig reigned over the game for 22 years before retiring in January. Only Judge Kenesaw Mountain Landis (1920-1944) had a longer commissionership. We've seen subtle changes already: After awarding the 2017 All-Star Game to Miami, an unprecedented third consecutive year in a National League ballpark, Manfred said the AL and NL will rotate years when they get last-ups. All this will be small stuff, though, compared to the first major task facing Manfred: the expiration of the Basic Agreement following the 2016 season. Will he extend the game's period of labor peace, which will stand at 21 consecutive years without a strike or lockout by then?
Pace of game: The discussions will continue, with everyone agreeing it's not a bad idea to move things along as long as you don't mess with the integrity of the game. So how do you do that? This one could be so easy: Simply chop some time off during the between-innings breaks. Except there's a reason the game's revenues eclipsed a record $9 billion last year, and you might have figured between-innings commercials are one of them. So you look at small things, and here's one: Delete walk-up music. Some hitters won't get into the box until their song is finished. Make a few moves like that and maybe the game quickens just a wee bit.
The shrinking strike zone? Interesting story last week in which Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan wrote that officials are studying whether to alter the strike zone. The thinking goes that the low strike may be zapping offense. Here's a strong vote against that one: Anything that encourages hitters to swing, including the low strike, I'm all in favor of. We've already got far too many hitters who are far too reluctant to swing, grinding out at-bats against pitchers and bringing the game's pace to a standstill. Yes, we could use a little more offense, but shrink the strike zone and let's all take naps while the walk rates increase even more.
Pete Rose: New commissioner Manfred is on a direct collision course with Rose, if only because the All-Star Game this summer is in Cincinnati. The Reds already have asked baseball for guidance on the extent to which Rose can be involved. There will be public outcry that this should be the summer to reinstate Rose. And if Manfred does, can you imagine the emotions on that July night next summer on the banks of the Ohio River?
Zack Greinke and the future: With good reason, the Dodgers are NL West favorites this year. But the dream tandem of Clayton Kershaw and Greinke atop the rotation could be for the short term: Greinke can opt out of his six-year, $147 million deal after this season and become a free agent, thus giving up three years and $71 million and gambling on a bigger pile of gold.
3. Five Key Offseason Changes
Where have you gone, Derek Jeter? A nation turns its lonely eyes to … wait! Stop it!
Goodbye, Core Four: The last of them is gone, off to the pearly gates of St. Jetersburg, and man, will things look different for the Yankees with a commoner named Didi Gregorius at shortstop. Last Yankees' regular shortstop before Jeter took over in 1996? Tony Fernandez in 1995. The dope on Gregorius: The Yanks acquired him from the Diamondbacks as part of a three-team deal with the Detroit Tigers on Dec. 5. They sent right-hander Shane Greene to the Tigers, and the Tigers sent lefty Robbie Ray and a minor leaguer to Arizona. More dope on Gregorius: He speaks four languages (English, Dutch, Papiamento and Spanish) and is said to be an accomplished artist who regularly paints and sketches on the road. As long as it's not paint-by-numbers on the field, Yankees fans can deal.
Kung Fu Panda to Beantown: As long as he's not buried under that ludicrous February snow the area received, Pablo Sandoval will hit in Fenway Park. So will Hanley Ramirez. But if Sandoval hits a slow patch, as he's been known to do, he's going to find the pressure of Boston far more challenging than the unconditional love that buffeted him in San Francisco. But check this out: Even having failed to sign Lester and passing on Scherzer and Shields, the Red Sox's payroll will be more than $200 million. That's a lot of bamboo for Panda and Co. with a still-mediocre rotation.
Jason Heyward settles into St. Louis: Following the tragic death of Oscar Taveras in an October auto accident, the Cardinals moved quickly to find a new right fielder. It is an unavoidable, sad and drastic move after the Cards spent most of the past three-or-so years planning on Taveras joining their lineup by 2015. Heyward is a two-time Gold Glover, and though his power has dwindled over the past two years, he's boosted his on-base percentage and reduced his strikeouts over each of the past four years. The Cardinals have every chance to extend their run of seven NL Central titles over the past 13 years.
Tigers trade pitching for hitting: Well, sort of. Wasn't exactly strictly an old-fashioned trade, but in bidding farewell to Scherzer via free agency and then acquiring Yoenis Cespedes from Boston for Rick Porcello, the Tigers rotation will have a new look in '15. And they will be dependent on their sticks. Which might not be a bad thing: As one scout raved, with Cespedes, Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, this group could score a thousand runs (OK, a slight exaggeration, but you get the idea).
Heads up, Safeco Field: With Nelson Cruz aboard to work with Robinson Cano in the middle of the lineup, the hits just keep coming for a Seattle team that remained in contention into September last year and should be even better this year. As Kyle Seager and Michael Zunino continue to improve and King Felix Hernandez leads a talented rotation, it will be a disappointment if the Mariners aren't playing in October this year (and don't underestimate the role lefty Seth Smith can play in an improved offense, too).
4. Five Most Improved Teams
Finally in San Diego, a baseball team to match the quality of the fish tacos ...
Padres: One of the worst lineups ever, historically and aesthetically, was taken to the woodchipper by new GM A.J. Preller, who completely remade this team and yet only bumped up the payroll to a little more than $100 million from the $90 million range. Matt Kemp already has called Preller a rock star, but if he can unload Carlos Quentin, that's when he'll really achieve Mick Jagger status.
Cubs: New skipper Joe Maddon likes that Rizzo is on record predicting a division title. As Maddon reasons, if you don't go to the yard thinking you're going to win, why show up at all? Hashtag: NoLongerLovableLosers.
White Sox: With Jeff Samardzija, Chris Sale and Jose Quintana as the rotation's front three, don't sleep on the club from the South Side. Few teams had as good a winter as the Sox, who also added closer David Robertson and first baseman Adam LaRoche. They helped their rotation, bullpen and lineup, which significantly helped their AL Central chances.
Marlins: When Jose Fernandez went down last May, it appeared to doom the surprising Marlins' wild-card chances. Then they hung around anyway. There is a terrific collection of young talent here, and the additions of Michael Morse (first base), Dee Gordon (second base), Martin Prado (third base) and Ichiro Suzuki (outfield) make this a very intriguing club.
Blue Jays: Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin are exactly the type of players who have been missing in Toronto, savvy veterans who know how to win. If a couple of starters can step up (hello, Marcus Stroman, Drew Hutchison and Daniel Norris), keep an eye on John Gibbons' club.
5. Five Least Improved Teams
Last one out of Tampa ... or St. Petersburg ... or wherever the stadium is or is going to be ... please turn out the lights ...
Rays: Tough winter when you lose GM Andrew Friedman (Dodgers), manager Joe Maddon (Cubs) and trade Ben Zobrist (Athletics). If this were the NFL draft, Tampa Bay would be relegated to Mr. Irrelevant.
Phillies: When GM Ruben Amaro tells has-been first baseman Ryan Howard that both sides would be better off if the club was able to trade Howard, and then Howard is still around when spring training opens ... that's the textbook definition of inertia. The big story all spring will be whether the Phils trade Cole Hamels.
Braves: See ya, Jason Heyward. Buh-bye, Justin Upton. Maybe Nick Markakis and Jonny Gomes surprise, but it's hard to see how Atlanta isn't taking a few steps back while retooling and getting better organized to put a winner on the field for the move into a new park in a couple of years.
Orioles: Losing Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis takes a big bite out of the Birds offense. How much longer can Buck Showalter continue to make magic in Baltimore? We're about to find out.
Reds: They finished 25-42 over their last 67 games last season and then weakened their rotation (for financial reasons) by dealing Mat Latos (Marlins) and Alfredo Simon (Tigers). At least the ribs are still delicious at Montgomery Inn.
6. Five Rookies On The Verge
They're not yelling "Yoooaaann!" They're chanting "Nice gooooiiin'!" ...
Yoan Moncada, free agent: We don't even know yet where he'll be camping out during spring training. The Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees, Giants, Padres and others have worked him out, and industry sources believe he could sign as soon as this week. Just 19, Moncada is the Next Big Thing from Cuba, a five-tool player who, eventually, could have an impact similar to that of Yasiel Puig or Jose Abreu.
Joc Pederson, Dodgers: They didn't trade Matt Kemp just because they were bored. The Dodgers had to make room for Pederson, the MVP of the Pacific Coast League last season with 33 homers, 30 steals and a 1.017 OPS for Triple-A Albuquerque. He's done all he can in the minors, but keep an eye on this: He also whiffed 149 times last summer in Triple-A, so it will be interesting to see how manager Don Mattingly mixes him in with Carl Crawford, Puig and Andre Ethier. Clearly, Pederson, just 22, needs to play every day—or most days.
Kris Bryant, Cubs: He smashed 43 homers combined last year in Double-A and Triple-A, winning the Joe Bauman Home Run Award. Just imagining Bryant in Wrigley Field sets the hearts of Cubs fans aflutter. Will the Cubs keep him in the minors until early June for financial/service-time reasons?
Noah Syndergaard, Mets: The latest in New York's snazzy collection of young pitching, Syndergaard's fastball averages in the high 90s, and he averaged 10 whiffs per nine innings last year in the minors. The Mets very soon could be the best team in the Big Apple.
Carlos Rodon, White Sox: The third overall pick in last year's draft, Rodon, a big lefty out of North Carolina State, eventually slots in as a starter. But the White Sox have the tools to win now, and they've got a history of breaking in prospects in the bullpen (see: Chris Sale and Mark Buehrle). Don't be surprised if they do the same with Rodon if things break well on the South Side.
7. Five Comebacks To Watch
A standing ovation for Mr. Stanton for his first plate appearance this season, please ...
Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins: Last we saw of him, he was lying in the home-plate dirt, blood pooling on the ground, after taking a Mike Fiers pitch in the chops. The Marlins believe that will be little more than a rude interruption, having given him a stunning 13-year, $325 million deal in November. (Stanton has an opt-out clause after six years.) All the best to a charismatic player who easily could become the face of the game.
Matt Cain, Giants: The World Series champions lost Sandoval and Morse to free agency, and they made a hard run at Lester before finishing second to the Cubs this winter. Plus, Madison Bumgarner, including October, threw 270 innings last season, and Tim Hudson and Jake Peavy aren't getting any younger. Cain, 30, after just 15 starts last year before elbow surgery, is an enormous key for Bruce Bochy's club in 2015.
Matt Harvey, Mets: Two summers ago, he started the All-Star Game for the NL. Then came Tommy John surgery. Now, how quickly the Mets can contend is tied to Harvey's comeback.
Garrett Richards, Angels: The best pitcher on the best AL team last season before he wrecked his knee covering first base in Boston. His average fastball speed of 96.2 mph last season ranked second only to the Royals' Yordano Ventura (96.9), according to FanGraphs.
Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, Tigers: Cabrera is recovering from surgery on his right foot and ankle in October, and Martinez is expected to miss at least four weeks after undergoing knee surgery earlier this month. In the words of a certain tiger who loves his Frosted Flakes cereal manufactured by that cereal company based in Battle Creek, Michigan, Tigers fans won't rest until both are feeling "Grrreeeeaaaat!"
8. Five Managers On The Griddle
Just melt the butter and pass the Aunt Jemima ...
Fredi Gonzalez, Braves: Lots of people wondered whether last season's 79-83 disappointment might cost Gonzalez his job, but the Braves instead sacked GM Frank Wren. John Hart replaced him, and Bobby Cox has a big say in baseball operations, which bodes well for Gonzalez, who is very close with Cox. But if things go off the rails in 2015, Gonzalez is vulnerable.
Bud Black, Padres: Now entering the last year of his contract ... the Padres like Black a lot (they should), but with a club-record payroll of $100 million-plus, they will demand results.
Matt Williams, Nationals: With memories of last year's playoff meltdown against the Giants and the colossal expectations with a monster rotation this year, anything less than steamrolling the NL East could cause things to go sideways for the skipper.
Walt Weiss, Rockies: The Rockies are 44 games under .500 in two seasons under Weiss. Last year's club was crushed by injuries. Let's see what happens this year.
Buck Showalter, Orioles: One of the best in the business, the only reason we've listed him is because he's never stayed anywhere longer than four full seasons. And after taking the Orioles job in August 2010, he's starting his fifth full season in Baltimore.
9(a). Five Cactus League Eats
Because you need sustenance after a day of baseball-watching and Camelback Mountain-hiking ...
Richardson's, Phoenix: Cuisine of New Mexico is what they say, and whether it's the green chile potato or the chorizo-stuffed pork chop, you can't go wrong. Lou Piniella endorses the prickly pear margaritas. (And, ahem, I rarely second-guessed anything Piniella did.)
Italian Grotto, Old Town Scottsdale: Fun place because baseball people flock here. Mix in conversations with any number of scouts and broadcasters between bites of chicken parmesan.
Los Olivos, Old Town Scottsdale: Great Mexican joint in a lovely location. Was having a nice meal at the bar a couple of years ago when I looked over and noticed umpire Jim Joyce and his wife sitting next to me. The conversation wasn't as spicy as the salsa, but it was as fulfilling as the carne asada.
Don and Charlie's, Scottsdale: This place has been around forever, as you can quickly tell by the incredibly impressive display of baseball memorabilia and autographed photos. Go for the ribs and steaks; stay for the sightseeing.
Culinary Dropout, Scottsdale: How could you not like a place with that name? Especially when the cheese and pretzel fondue and fried chicken and biscuits are so delicious.
9(b). Five Grapefruit League Eats
Please, just no Disney World (but make sure to treat yourself and pull off the freeway for one of the frequently spotted Dairy Queens) ...
Frenchy's, Clearwater Beach: Grouper sandwiches on the Gulf of Mexico. Sensational ...
Leftover's Cafe, Jupiter: Not far from the Cardinals and Marlins camps. Personal favorite: the sweet-potato-crusted sea bass. Almost as good as watching Adam Wainwright work on his curveball a couple of miles away.
Nino's, Fort Myers: I send everyone who asks about Fort Myers here. Italian food, homemade, as fresh as you can find, big portions and the garlic rolls earn extra credit. Located close to the Twins camp, and not far from the Red Sox. I've been going here for years.
Harry's Louisiana Grill, Lakeland: I'm a sucker for Cajun food, and whether it's the smoked sausage, red beans and rice, the crawfish etouffee or the shrimp creole, it's all delicious here a couple of miles from Tiger Town.
Bennett's Fresh Roast, Fort Myers: The coffee is as good as you'll find anywhere, if you're a coffee junkie like me. And their donuts are incredible. Get the maple bacon frosted donut (or, if it's lunchtime and you've got guts, the donut dog—a donut covered with a hot dog and sloppy joe meat). Then make sure you get your workout in later.
Scott Miller covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report. He has over two decades of experience covering MLB, including 14 years as a national baseball columnist at CBSSports.com.
Follow Scott on Twitter and talk baseball @ScottMillerBbl.
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