1. Washington Nationals: Fight Club
From the Stephen Strasburg Shutdown to naming a manager with no experience as a replacement for Davey Johnson, no organization has swaggered forward more cocksure while believing in itself than the Nationals.
Years from now, we will look back at the video of Jonathan Papelbon's dugout choking of Bryce Harper as the overriding symbol of a 2015 season gone way off the rails.
The question is: Will it become the overriding symbol of an entire era of Nationals baseball that the franchise let slip through its grasp with no (where's my) rings to show for it?
Sunday's Papelbon-Harper dust-up was disgusting and repulsive not simply because two teammates went at it, which, believe it or not, occurs from time to time. Don Sutton-Steve Garvey with the Dodgers, Barry Bonds-Jeff Kent with the Giants, Keith Hernandez-Darryl Strawberry with the Mets; stuff happens. Even on winning teams. Sometimes especially on winning teams.
No, what was most disgusting and repulsive about Papelbon-Harper is that the episode crystallized the underachievement by, and lack of accountability from, an organization that thinks it has all of the answers but has yet to win even one series in October.
The Nationals compiled the best record in the majors in 2012, shut down Strasburg in early September while watching his innings and were bounced from the NL Division Series by St. Louis. The vibe: Our window is just opening, we'll have plenty more chances.
Their encore in 2013, the first season in which they had a target on their backs after surprising everyone in '12, was to wilt and not even make the playoffs. They were back last year as NL East champs but never recovered from losing the 18-inning Game 2 epic in the NLDS against the Giants, when manager Matt Williams hooked starter Jordan Zimmermann with a lead and two out in the ninth.
The first-guessing on that move at the time was ear-splitting, and now it turns out that it was only a precursor to a summer stocked with questionable bullpen usage. By the end, according to longtime Washington Post baseball writer Barry Svrluga the other day, the manager had lost the clubhouse.
"It's a terrible environment," one unnamed player told Svrluga. "And the amazing part is everybody feels that way."
That was after Papelbon drilled Baltimore's Manny Machado last week, after which Harper complained that now he will "probably get drilled tomorrow," per Tyler Kepner of the New York Times.
But it was before Papelbon attacked Harper on Sunday and then, inexplicably, Williams sent Papelbon out to pitch because, well, it was the ninth inning and the game was tied, so of course they had to stick with their closer.
Rarely is a manager as obviously tone-deaf as Williams has been this year. But the problems with this organization lie far deeper than the manager's seat
Who hired the manager who ultimately made this club less than the sum of its parts, not more?
Who traded for Papelbon, a well-known baseball miscreant who had helped torpedo the goodwill of clubs in Boston and Philadelphia before egging Harper into a fight? And who signed Rafael Soriano before that?
General manager Mike Rizzo has collected some impressive talent in D.C., but this unsightly mess is not just Williams' fault. From ownership to Rizzo, some key people running this organization need to take a long, hard look in the mirror. "Natitude" has morphed from a marketing slogan to a running joke across the game for an organization that has left itself open to it, too often behaving as if it's accomplished something.
Right now, after four full seasons of Harper (including this year's likely MVP campaign) and 131 regular-season starts from Strasburg, the Nationals are sitting on zero postseason series wins. These are years from elite players that you don't get back.
Throw in Zimmermann, who is expected to leave as a free agent this winter, Doug Fister, the veteran savvy of Jayson Werth and more, and few clubs have wasted as much talent as these Nationals.
You wonder if Tanner Roark is ever going to develop into the starting pitcher he should, given the way the club has bounced him back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen. You wonder why Drew Storen hasn't been moved after the Nats twice have pulled the rug out from under him as a closer, first with Soriano then with Papelbon.
For next year, they surely are going to have to hire a new manager and revamp the bullpen entirely. They have decisions to make on free-agent shortstop Ian Desmond (hello, Trea Turner) and center fielder Denard Span. And, oh yeah, they must find a taker for Papelbon and the $11 million he is owed.
That's a lot of work for one winter for a team that thought a couple hundred million for Max Scherzer was the final piece on the road to the World Series. But this is a bad clubhouse culture, and a significant overhaul is needed.
2. Boston Red Sox: Don’t Feed the Panda
For the second time in three years, the Red Sox were going to attempt to perform the unthinkable: Leap from last place to the World Series. It worked beautifully in 2013. Not so much in 2015.
So the Red Sox paid $183 million for Hanley Ramirez and Pablo "Kung Fu Panda" Sandoval last winter, and all they got was Ramirez's butchery in left field and Panda hitting the "Like" button on a pretty lady on social media in the middle of a game.
Huh?
With his club out of the race nearly by Patriots' Day, Ramirez turned into as bad a left fielder as anyone in Fenway Park could remember, and he hasn't played in a game since Aug. 26 because of what the club is calling "shoulder fatigue" (wink, wink).
Sandoval is hitting .245 with 10 homers and 47 RBI and will not be an October hero this year.
Then there was the rotation. The Sox recalibrated last winter after missing out on free-agent Jon Lester, veering toward starters they viewed as innings-eaters rather than aces.
Wade Miley, Rick Porcello and Co. rank 12th among AL rotations with a 4.35 ERA. Justin Masterson was released, pitching coach Juan Nieves was fired, general manager Ben Cherington resigned after Boston hired Dave Dombrowski as the new president of baseball operations and then, salt in the wound of a season gone horribly wrong for Sox fans, came word that popular broadcaster Don Orsillo was let go.
With Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Rusney Castillo and Brock Holt, some quality pieces are here for a fairly quick bounce-back. And with Dombrowski in charge (he recently hired Frank Wren and Mike Hazen as his right-hand men), expect a quick fix, starting with the rotation. Don't be surprised if the Red Sox take a hard run at ace David Price on the free-agent market this winter.
3. Seattle Mariners: Still World Series-less
Turns out, 2014 was a mirage. The Mariners did not take enough steps forward to contend in 2015. They were not positioned as a surprise World Series team.
They weren't even positioned to keep their general manager.
On Monday, the Mariners named Jerry Dipoto as their new GM, replacing Jack Zduriencik, who held the post from 2009 until Seattle fired him last month. Before him, Bill Bavasi was the GM from 2004-08. Bavasi replaced Hall of Famer Pat Gillick.
What all of this means is that the Mariners have whiffed on their past two GM hires, fallen into a 14-year playoff drought and remarkably remain the only American League team never to have played in a World Series.
What's worrisome now is that while Dipoto arrives, and he is very capable, CEO Howard Lincoln remains, and you have to wonder how much of the dark period is his responsibility. The common thread running through different areas, you know?
Though they have Nelson Cruz (better than expected in 2015) and Robinson Cano (worse than expected) in the middle of their order and King Felix Hernandez (sublime, as ever) atop their rotation, the Mariners have to do a better job of developing their own players. Dustin Ackley? Mike Zunino? They even have the wrong Seager in Kyle, not brother Corey (Dodgers).
One thing to look forward to: You know how humans supposedly can do Herculean things in times of crisis and desperation, like a mother lifting a toppled refrigerator off her child after, say, a train crashes into their apartment building? That will be Dipoto after resigning from the AL West-rival Angels on July 1. What fun it will be watching him go to work to take down Mike Scioscia's club.
Biggest immediate question: Will Dipoto opt to keep Lloyd McClendon as manager? Or will he seek his own guy? If the latter, one strong possibility is Buddy Black.
4. San Diego Padres: Where's the Beef?
Time was, former Padres closer Goose Gossage, angry that the late, former owner Joan Kroc had removed beer from the clubhouse, griped about it by saying that she was "poisoning the world with her (McDonald's) hamburgers" yet won't let the Padres have beer.
Ah, if that were all that went wrong this summer after a gung-ho ownership group still retaining that new-car smell swung for the fences and wound up popping to shortstop. Suddenly, "rock star GM" A.J. Preller has been demoted to "elevator music GM." They're not selling T-shirts.
Matt Kemp had a bad first half but, like last year, woke up in the second half and has shown that maybe he can still be what the Padres hope he can be. If he ever grows into a leadership role, that would be good, too.
Justin Upton was mostly worth it but will depart via free agency. The Padres were burned by giving $75 million to free agent James Shields, who has pitched like a No. 3 and not an ace in too many starts. And Ian Kennedy and Andrew Cashner sleepwalked through the first half, when the one strength the Padres counted on, their rotation, sabotaged the summer.
Firing Black in June when the club was 32-33 was defensible, but installing a Triple-A manager (Pat Murphy), who needed a program just to identify rivals, as "interim for the year" was not.
Now Preller heads into his second winter with as much to do as in his first. The Padres' shortstop situation has been a season-long embarrassment (where have you gone, Trea Turner?). They need to address that and rebuild practically their entire bullpen. They also need an influx of young players, so don't be surprised if Shields, closer Craig Kimbrel and even catcher Derek Norris are on the trade block this winter.
One positive that not enough people remember: This was the first time in several years that the Padres, starting with ownership, actually tried to win. I mean, really tried. So at least that bodes well for the future.
5. Detroit Tigers: Who's the Manager Again?
Yes, yes, I know: It's Brad Ausmus. And at the risk of making Tigers fans even more angry than they already are, I support that decision.
Look, it wasn't Ausmus' fault that Justin Verlander opened the season on the disabled list. It wasn't Ausmus' fault that Victor Martinez had a knee injury, and he and Miguel Cabrera hardly were in the lineup together until the Tigers were taking on serious water.
And it sure in blazes wasn't Ausmus' fault that all season his bullpen was more flammable than lighter fluid on the face of the sun. That's been an ongoing issue in Detroit that the Tigers inexplicably have not been able to fix.
So while everyone had Ausmus out the door (yes, me too), and while several Detroit media outlets cited sources that he would be fired, he instead becomes Survivor of the Year.
One other thing: It is to fired president Dave Dombrowski's credit that he pulled the trigger on the Price and Yoenis Cespedes trades at midseason. Those were two of the only real trade chips the Tigers had to acquire much-needed young talent, like Daniel Norris, the starter they received from Toronto in the Price deal.
But in removing those two players, the Tigers took a short-term hit. Understand, Price likely is going to win the AL Cy Young Award, and Cespedes has stirred debate that he should be considered for NL MVP.
The Tigers currently have the worst rotation in the AL, checking in with a 4.78 ERA. That's with Price gone, Anibal Sanchez injured (shoulder) and Alfredo Simon and (especially) Shane Greene volatile from start to start. New GM Al Avila's first task this winter is clear: Get some pitching.
6. Chicago White Sox: Where Have You Gone, Ozzie Guillen?
The Sox are the American League Siamese twins of the Padres in 2015. Win the winter, go plop in the summer.
There wasn't a baseball soul alive who didn't like what this club did last winter, trading for starter Jeff Samardzija, adding closer David Robertson and acquiring first baseman/DH Adam LaRoche.
Reminder for this winter: For teams that appear to make good moves, remember to immediately question whether the players will play up to expectations and whether the chemistry will be all messed up.
Samardzija has been one of the most disappointing players of the season, going 10-13 with a 5.04 ERA. Center fielder Adam Eaton hurt the Sox early with his painfully slow start. Offensively, the Sox currently rank 14th in the AL in home runs, last in runs scored and last in slugging percentage.
This is the third losing season in the past four under manager Robin Ventura, which is leading to intense speculation as to whether he will return. Owner Jerry Reinsdorf is spectacularly loyal to his people, so there's that. Right now, it's a coin flip. But whatever happens, GM Rick Hahn needs to fix the offense.
7. San Francisco Giants: No October Plans This Year
You take the rings any way you can get them, but here's an odd trend the Giants probably could do without: Three times in the past five years now, they've followed up a World Series season by not even qualifying for the playoffs the next year.
So October will be Madison Bumgarner-less, mostly because the Giants couldn't find enough starting pitching to surround him. Jake Peavy missed much of the year, Tim Hudson wore down and Matt Cain didn't rebound from elbow surgery as expected.
It wasn't a total loss in that second baseman Joe Panik and third baseman Matt Duffy emerged. Who needs Panda Sandoval, anyway?
Biggest challenge next year? Keeping Hunter Pence and others healthy, and finding enough starting pitching.
8. Cleveland Indians: Jinxed by Sports Illustrated, Again
Yeah, the magazine picked the Indians to win it all again, featuring 2014 Cy Young winner Corey Kluber and outfielder Michael Brantley on the cover, and you know what that means. Fizzzzz.
The same thing happened in 1987.
The Indians started slowly, Carlos Santana has not hit as well as expected and the club probably is going to have to trade pitching this winter to get better. Trevor Bauer, anyone?
Thank goodness for shortstop Francisco Lindor.
9. Baltimore Orioles: No Jake Arrieta Here
Following a happy, brief renaissance under manager Buck Showalter in which the Orioles advanced to the postseason twice in the past three seasons, ominous signs are everywhere.
Only the Tigers have a worse rotation ERA than the Orioles (4.57). Baltimore's starting pitchers worked the second-least number of innings (885.2) in the AL.
Meanwhile, Jake Arrieta, handed to the Cubs along with reliever Pedro Strop for Steve Clevenger and Scott Feldman on July 2, 2013, has developed into one of the best pitchers in the majors.
And the Orioles were not able to suitably replace outfielders Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis this season.
While the Orioles fade, there are reports, via Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal, that Showalter and GM Dan Duquette are clashing. Duquette was interested in Toronto's opening for a club presidency last winter, but Baltimore owner Peter Angelos refused to grant him permission to speak with the Blue Jays.
This winter, things will get more interesting with first baseman Chris Davis, catcher Matt Wieters and lefty Wei-Yin Chen all eligible for free agency. All are clients of Scott Boras, as well, which means they almost certainly will find more money elsewhere.
9a. Weekly Power Rankings
1. Pope Francis: As he left the United States, asked citizens to pray for him and Jonathan Papelbon.
2. Jake Arrieta: Now 15-1 with a 0.89 ERA in 19 starts since June 21. Has hit as many homers (two) as he's allowed (two) during this stretch.
3. Yogi Berra: Always remember, you can observe a lot just by watching.
4. Trevor Noah: New Daily Show host and the Cubs' Kris Bryant stepping onto their first autumn big stage at the same time.
5. Minnesota Twins: Given how miraculous it is that Paul Molitor's club still has a chance at the wild card, don't be surprised if Pope Francis returns soon with to canonize the Twins manager.
9b. Rock 'n' Roll Lyric of the Week
"Summer has come and passed
"The innocent can never last
"Wake me up when September ends
"Ring out the bells again
"Like we did when spring began
"Wake me up when September ends"
—Green Day, "Wake Me Up When September Ends"
Scott Miller covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.
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