1. Navigating Nashville, Music City USA and Baseball’s Epicenter This Week
You probably think the most difficult thing for a general manager at the winter meetings is completing that three-way trade to land an ace or boxing out four other teams to land a bat.
Wrong. This year, the hardest thing in this massive maze of a resort that is the largest non-casino hotel in the United States outside of Las Vegas, with some 2,700 rooms, will be actually finding someone. For example, St. Louis general manager John Mozeliak could schedule a meeting with Cleveland GM Chris Antonetti on Monday at 1 p.m. to discuss a blockbuster trade, and they may not actually locate each other until Wednesday at 4 p.m. You need a GPS and a nutrition bar every time you leave your room, just in case.
Yes, signing a free agent like Jason Heyward (Cardinals? Angels?), Yoenis Cespedes (Mets? Cardinals?), Ben Zobrist (Mets? Cubs?), Johnny Cueto (Dodgers?), Chris Davis (Orioles?) or Daniel Murphy (Yankees?) will be difficult, too. It will require far more cash than clubs want to pay, especially based on what we've seen so far (David Price to Boston for seven years and $217 million, Zack Greinke to Arizona for six years and $206.5 million, Jordan Zimmermann to Detroit for five years and $110 million).
"I like the free-agent field. I think it's good," one longtime talent evaluator says, and amen to that. It is a strong and deep class this winter, especially regarding starting pitchers and corner outfielders.
But he adds, correctly: "I think it is the secondary guys who make or break a club more than the top-tier guys."
Think back to 2012, the last time these winter meetings were in Nashville, and how Boston signed outfielder Shane Victorino, first baseman Mike Napoli and reliever Koji Uehara. All played key roles in the Red Sox winning the 2013 World Series.
In the meantime, the stage is set for an active trade market—possibly hyperactive—too. Several clubs have checked in with the Atlanta Braves on starter Shelby Miller. And rumors continue to crackle around a couple of legitimate aces: Oakland's Sonny Gray and the Chicago White Sox's Chris Sale.
Best part, always, are the surprise deals. Last year, nobody saw the Dodgers dealing second baseman Dee Gordon to Miami, and the Marlins wound up obtaining a batting champion.
As long as nobody goes missing, or is lost traveling the indoor river that flows through the Opryland Hotel, all should be good.
2. NL West: Off to the Races
The question as they flew to Nashville was, will the Dodgers get left behind?
Zack Greinke to the Diamondbacks and Jeff Samardzija to the Giants left the Dodgers playing catch-up, big-time. But practically before Monday morning's coffee had cooled, Los Angeles was on the move: They were on the verge of a deal with free-agent right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma late Sunday night, according to Bleacher Report sources, then Monday morning they reportedly landed Cincinnati closer Aroldis Chapman for two prospects.
The Dodgers were left with no choice but to act quickly: Losing Greinke was bad enough, but watching him flee to an NL West rival was especially painful in terms of Arizona closing the gap for 2016.
Together, Greinke and Clayton Kershaw camouflaged a series of weaknesses in Los Angeles last summer. Even had Greinke returned, the Dodgers needed rotation help. Now, it's S.O.S. time, especially with the San Francisco Giants immediately striking to sign right-hander Jeff Samardzija ($90 million) practically before Greinke had even learned what next summer's uniform combinations will be like in Arizona (trust us, there seemingly are more offerings than the 31 flavors at Baskin-Robbins).
The Diamondbacks and Giants both would like to add another starting pitcher, and both, according to industry sources, are targeting Mike Leake.
In San Francisco's favor, perhaps, is that Leake pitched for Bruce Bochy during the second half of last year after Cincinnati traded him.
In Arizona's favor, perhaps, is that with Greinke aboard, the Diamondbacks clearly have momentum going into '16, and Leake played in Tempe at Arizona State.
The Dodgers? Adding Chapman to closer Kenley Janssen not only adds intrigue internally (Which one will close? Would Janssen accept a move to the eighth inning?), it signals the club's post-Greinke plan: Clearly, building a strong bullpen now is a necessity given a rotation that likely will be weaker. Their sticking point with Greinke was they did not want to add a sixth year to their offer for a pitcher who already is 32.
One thing that has to rankle the Dodgers is that, with a payroll of around $300 million, they pumped $44 million worth of competitive balance tax into this year's pool, and the D-backs were only too happy to be one of the recipients. In a way, the Dodgers helped finance Arizona's poaching of Greinke.
3. Strong Secondary Pitching Market
Beyond David Price and Zack Greinke, the market is loaded with options—though things already have started to move. Even with Jordan Zimmermann (Tigers), Jeff Samardzija (Giants), John Lackey (Cubs) and Hisashi Iwakuma (Dodgers) off the market, Johnny Cueto, Yovani Gallardo, Ian Kennedy, Doug Fister, Scott Kazmir, Mike Leake, Wei-Yin Chen, Bartolo Colon and Mat Latos all are available.
And already, Cueto reportedly turned down a $120 million offer from Arizona (the D-backs, of course, rebounded nicely with Greinke).
Beyond the free agents and the aforementioned starting pitcher trade options, even more could flood the market. Cleveland is desperate for offense, and some wonder whether the Indians will fix that by trading from their starting pitching depth. The names of Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer all have made their way to the rumor mill, so whether Cleveland finds a deal it likes will be one fascinating part of this week.
As the Padres look to fill holes, they are believed to be making James Shields very available. Failing that, don't be surprised if the Padres move Andrew Cashner or Tyson Ross (for a whopping price only).
Might Tampa Bay move one of its excellent starters, Jake Odorizzi or Matt Moore? Might the Yankees deal Ivan Nova as they look to reshuffle and upgrade their rotation?
Beyond Price and Greinke, there are no sure things. While Bochy and San Francisco pitching coach Dave Righetti stand every chance of getting Samardzija launched in the right direction, he is coming off of a rock 'em, sock 'em year in which he led the majors in hits allowed and earned runs allowed, and produced a ragged 4.96 ERA.
"The thing that's attractive about Samardzija to me is that he's a super athlete," one former GM says. "He's going to go out there, and he's probably going to get you 200 innings a year for the next four or five years. So at least you're getting that."
Yeah, but…
"I think the team that signs Samardzija will be horrified with the lack of what he gives you," says one scout. "I understand he gives you [innings], but you lose. The most wins he's had in a season in his career is 11. He's a .500 pitcher at best, and he's never proven anything beyond that."
See, in baseball during the winter, as in modeling, beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
4. Where Will Jason Heyward Go, and Whatever Happened to Yoenis Cespedes?
Let's not allow pitching to hog the entire spotlight (hey, this is Nashville, and even on the television show by the same name, there's plenty of room for both Connie Britton and Hayden Panettiere).
With runs per game and hits per game dwindling to early 1970s rates, few teams out there do not need hitting. And there are a handful of difference-makers, starting with Heyward. The Cardinals would love to bring him back. The Angels have a big need for an impact, left-handed bat. He fits several other places, too, and is projected by at least one handicapper to hit $200 million or more over 10 years.
"He is interesting to me, but the money they're talking about with him I just don't believe," one industry source says. "This isn't Mike Trout we're talking about."
So let's raise a question: What if, instead of paying Heyward that, a team in the market for an outfielder who can get on base went for Dexter Fowler instead?
"If I wanted to get two guys out of this, I'd go get Fowler and then somebody else for the same money I'd have to pay Heyward," the source says. "The market is there to go ahead and do that, to get two of what is considered second-tier players."
Heyward is 26 and batted .293/.359/.439 with 13 homers, 60 RBI and 23 steals last season.
Fowler is 29 and batted .250/.346/.411 with 17 homers, 46 RBI and 20 steals last season.
In their same list, mlbtraderumors.com projects Fowler to go for $60 million over four years. Sure, Heyward is younger, but one size doesn't fit all in the Hot Stove League.
Speaking of which, there is remarkably little buzz, so far, surrounding Cespedes. Partly because….
5. Ben Zobrist, Darling of the Hot Stove League
The Mets are pursuing Zobrist hard, according to Bleacher Report sources, and he fits well with several other clubs, too, including the Angels, Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, Nationals and Giants. Take your pick; Zobrist is versatile in the field, he's a switch-hitter and he's a leader in the clubhouse.
As of now, Cespedes is holed up waiting for clubs that don't get Zobrist to turn to him.
6. The Unknown Factor in This Year’s Meetings
Introductions, please:
Ten clubs have changed GMs (or point men in charge of baseball operations, if you factor in those with a "president of baseball operations"-type of title) in the past few months, including the Angels (Billy Eppler), Red Sox (Dave Dombrowski), Tigers (Al Avila), Mariners (Jerry Dipoto), Blue Jays (Mark Shapiro/Tony LaCava/Ross Atkins), Brewers (David Stearns), Braves (John Coppolella), Marlins (Michael Hill is still president of baseball operations but the GM position is vacant), Phillies (Matt Klentak) and Reds (Dick Williams, with Walt Jocketty moving up to director of baseball operations).
Some of those names are familiar and experienced (Dombrowski, Dipoto), but many are just breaking ground in their new roles. How quickly will they move? How difficult will it be for them to navigate the landscape at the winter meetings and deal? And will they get lost in Nashville like so many hotel guests seen aimlessly wandering around?
7. Revisiting Closers
Already, Boston has traded for Craig Kimbrel and Detroit has acquired Francisco Rodriguez, and with teams such as the Chicago Cubs looking for a closer, there are several to be had via the trade market.
Now, early Monday morning, the Dodgers reportedly acquired the sexiest name on the trade market, Reds closer Aroldis Chapman. Colleague Danny Knobler detailed why Chapman will be the must-have prize this week in Nashville here, and the Dodgers proved his point by wasting no time in nabbing him.
The Yankees are said to be listening on Andrew Miller as they look to upgrade their rotation. The Phillies are listening on Ken Giles, the White Sox might be enticed to deal David Robertson, one of their prizes from last year's free-agent market, and the Nationals are widely expected to trade Drew Storen this winter and make a strong push to deal Jonathan Papelbon.
8. Other Points of Interest Beyond the Johnny Cash Museum
• Credit the Cubs for identifying a need and zeroing in on it quickly: John Lackey was a great under-the-radar buy before the Cubs snapped him up with a two-year, $32 million deal. "He's one of the best out there," one scout told B/R a couple of hours before he landed with the Cubs. "I know he's 37, but this guy gives unbelievable effort and quality starts, time in and time out."
• The Padres are expected to be much quieter than they were last year when GM A.J. Preller stole the show at the winter meetings, but they still need a shortstop (Ian Desmond?) and bullpen help (Fernando Rodney?).
• The Blue Jays traded 11 pitchers this year (including Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd to the Tigers in the David Price deal). They are looking to replenish their supply of minor league arms.
• They are done with their major moves, the Red Sox say, but some in the industry still expect new president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski to dump erstwhile slugger Hanley Ramirez at some point. "I would get Hanley as far away from that ball club as possible," one executive says. "Panda (Pablo Sandoval) is a follower, not a leader. When he was with the Giants, he wasn't a guy you worried much about. Yeah, he was overweight, but he played hard. Then he gets with Hanley and has one of the worst years of his career. Gee, I wonder if there's any correlation. David's got to unload one of those two, and my guess is he unloads Hanley—and he's going to pay for a bunch of it." Ramirez is still owed more than $69 million over the next three years.
• The Reds aren't necessarily looking to deal third baseman Todd Frazier, but given the rebuilding and desperate need for pitching, anything is possible with Cincinnati.
• The Hall of Fame Pre-Integration Committee fired a shutout, failing to elect any of the 10 candidates they were considering. Charged with reviewing those who played before Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier in 1947, the committed reviewed, among others: Wes Ferrell (who pitched for 15 seasons and finished second in AL MVP voting in 1935 with Boston), Sam Breadon (an early Cardinals owner who hired Branch Rickey and created the blueprint for the modern farm system), slick-fielding shortstop Marty Marion (1944 NL MVP with the Cardinals), first baseman Frank McCormick (1940 NL MVP with the Reds) and right-hander Bucky Walters (who won the 1939 NL MVP award with the Reds).
• Sending all the best to Mets GM Sandy Alderson, who is battling an undisclosed form of cancer and is embarking upon 12 weeks of chemotherapy, and will not be in attendance in Nashville. Good thoughts and prayers his way.
9. Who Is Kenta Maeda and Why Do You Need to Know Him?
He is a 27-year-old right-hander posted last week by his Japanese team, the Hiroshima Carp. Being that he is at least two years younger than the best free-agent starters available right now and given that he won the Japanese version of a Cy Young Award this year (he surrendered only five total homers while facing 821 batters), he immediately becomes a very interesting player.
The Diamondbacks are looking for another starting pitcher, and GM Dave Stewart raved about Maeda last winter. "I love Maeda," Stewart told MLB.com. "I love him." The Dodgers need pitching, the A.J. Preller-led Padres always are in the market for international players, the Yankees could absolutely use him (though they again apparently are determined to stay under the $189 million competitive balance tax threshold and may not make a big free-agent move).
Any interested major league club can bid up to $20 million for the right to negotiate with him, and the winner would earn exclusive negotiating rights. If that club signs him, it pays the posting bid to the Carp, plus the contract to Maeda. If Maeda goes unsigned, that club does not owe anything to Hiroshima.
Scott Miller covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.
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