1. On Closers
This week is notable for two seemingly disparate yet related closer items.
As Trevor Hoffman makes his debut on the 2016 Hall of Fame ballot, friend and former colleague Jon Heyman wrote from the general managers meetings in Florida that this winter's trade market for closers is unusually hot.
These items are related...how?
In Hoffman's case, you would think that a closer with the second-most saves in history (601) would be a slam dunk in the Hall of Fame election. Not so fast. No player who spent the entirety of his career as a reliever has ever been elected to the Hall on his first ballot (Dennis Eckersley and John Smoltz, remember, spent significant portions of their careers as starters).
Part of the reason is that voters never have quite agreed on how to view and assess such a specialized craft with low workloads. And speaking generally, many of those inclined to view the game through a Sabermetric lens believe that closers are vastly overrated (many believe, with merit, that a manager should use his best relief pitcher in the highest-leverage situations, and that is not necessarily in the ninth inning every night).
Case in point is this study by the Society for American Baseball Research's Dave Smith, who founded the excellent website Retrosheet. Smith researched late-inning leads from 1944 to 2003 and 14 other seasons before that (for a total of 73 seasons) and found that a team holding a ninth-inning lead wins approximately 95 percent of the time no matter who pitches the ninth inning.
Narrowing that down, Smith's research found that percentages remained roughly constant in "save situations" no matter who was pitching, whether it was a closer or not: Clubs leading by one run after eight innings won approximately 85 percent of the time, clubs leading by two won roughly 94 percent of the time, and clubs leading by three runs after eight innings won about 96 percent of the time.
Now, how does this tie into this winter's trade market?
The game is changing. As more and more owners add young, Ivy League-types to front offices, the emphasis on metrics by key industry decision-makers has never been stronger.
Many of the new wave of young executives running clubs—the Dodgers' Andrew Friedman, the Astros' Jeff Luhnow, the Cubs' Theo Epstein, the Rangers' Jon Daniels and the Phillies' Matt Klentak among them—come with a more forward view, and part of that view often is that closers are interchangeable. And that while they are important, they also are disposable and replaceable.
It is partly why the four-year, $50 million contract the Phillies awarded Jonathan Papelbon in November 2011 was viewed by many as out of date practically before the ink was dry. Because the modern bullpen is stocked with multiple flamethrowers who can fling 95 mph cheese, many executives now believe clubs can fit one of those arms into the ninth inning. It is not necessarily a needle-in-a-haystack challenge of fitting the ninth inning into one of them.
So, like that of a new car, Papelbon's purchase price depreciated significantly before he rolled off of the lot in Philadelphia.
Among the available closers who are receiving the heaviest chatter in Florida at the GM meetings, according to Heyman, are the Padres' Craig Kimbrel, the Reds' Aroldis Chapman, the Pirates' Mark Melancon and the Yankees' Andrew Miller. Also starring in inquiries and discussions are the Rangers' Shawn Tolleson and, shocker (not), Papelbon (now of the Nationals).
There are a wide variety of ancillary reasons for the potential availability.
In San Diego, the Padres are desperate to retool a failed roster and have nearly $70 million locked into just four players for next year: Matt Kemp ($21.5 million), Melvin Upton Jr. ($15.45 million), James Shields ($21 million) and Kimbrel ($11 million). With little ready in the high minor leagues, short of a major overhaul, the Padres' best chance at retooling is to move a high salary or two.
In Cincinnati, the Reds are in the midst of a comprehensive strip-down and rebuild, and Chapman, one of their few valuable assets, becomes a free agent after the 2016 season. So it makes sense to move him now (and indications are that they will).
In Pittsburgh, Melancon, like Chapman, is eligible for free agency next winter.
In New York, the Yankees need rotation help and prefer to avoid paying top free-agent dollars to a David Price or a Zack Greinke. So they view Miller as one potential path to acquiring in trade a starter like a Stephen Strasburg. What makes Miller especially attractive to rivals is also why the Yanks will be loath to trade him: They signed Miller to a very affordable four-year, $36 million deal last winter.
Meanwhile, this week Texas' Daniels downplayed interest in re-signing free-agent right-hander Joakim Soria, according to SportsDayDFW.com's Evan Grant, indicating that the Rangers are more interested in acquiring bullpen depth than a straight closer-type.
But those are the ancillary reasons. What all of these clubs truly have in common: little appetite to pay top dollar to a closer and, consequently, a complete willingness to shuffle their ninth-inning deck and find alternatives to what they now have.
As Retrosheet's Smith concluded in his study of more than a decade ago, "The advent of the closer has not changed ninth-inning success."
In their modern-day gold rush toward emphasizing metrics and finding smarter ways to allocate their player payroll, many clubs now appear to be belatedly catching up to that conclusion.
2. Early Peek at Hall of Fame Ballot
I will write further about my Hall of Fame ballot in the coming weeks, but the two newcomers to the ballot whom I know I will vote for are Ken Griffey Jr., who should be a lock for election, and, yes, Hoffman.
The 2016 ballot was unveiled this week, and other first-timers include, among others, outfielder Jim Edmonds, infielders Mike Lowell, Troy Glaus and David Eckstein and closer Billy Wagner.
Griffey is viewed as the only slam dunk on the ballot. Hoffman finished with 601 saves and ranks second on the all-time list to Yankees' legend Mariano Rivera (652 saves, plus numerous October highlight-reel moments).
For reasons outlined above, Hoffman is not viewed as a slam dunk, which likely will come as a surprise to many. And yes, there are those who view modern closers who specialized in the one-inning save simply as hoarders of numbers whose meaning is overvalued.
But Hoffman did it for a very, very long time and his slash line is comparable to Rivera: Opposing hitters compiled a .211 batting average, .267 on-base percentage and .342 slugging percentage against Hoffman. Rivera's slash line is .211/.262/.293. And, Hoffman averaged 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings to Rivera's 8.2.
Let's be clear: In no way is that an argument that Hoffman was better than Rivera. Clearly, Rivera sets the historical bar. But what I am saying is that Hoffman's numbers and dominance extended in many directions.
As friend Jayson Stark writes in his book The Stark Truth: The Most Overrated and Underrated Players in Baseball History, Hoffman allowed nearly three fewer baserunners per nine innings than John Franco, who finished with 424 saves, and nearly two fewer than Lee Smith, who at one time was the all-time saves leader and finished with 478. Stark ranks Hoffman as the second-most underrated reliever of all time (Goose Gossage is first).
One more Hoffman number: He converted 89 percent of his save opportunities (601 of 677)—interestingly, the same percentage as Rivera (652 of 732).
As for the holdovers from last year's ballot, these are the players for whom I voted: Jeff Kent, Fred McGriff, Mike Mussina, Tim Raines and Alan Trammell. Unfortunately, this is the last year of eligibility for Trammell, who has been criminally undersupported in the voting while peer Ozzie Smith and Barry Larkin have sailed into the Hall.
It looks like Trammell's last, best hope will be a future Veterans Committee vote.
Ballots are due in late December, and the 2016 Hall of Fame induction class will be announced Jan. 6.
3. Cuba and Spring Training
Nothing is formal, but with relations thawing between the United States and Cuba, baseball hopes to schedule a couple of spring training games in Cuba in March.
Speaking at the GM meetings in Florida this week, Commissioner Rob Manfred said exhibition games in the country "would be a good thing for baseball," per the New York Times' Billy Witz. Several baseball officials traveled to Cuba last month on a fact-finding mission, examining fields and facilities to see whether it is feasible to schedule games there.
According to Witz, the Yankees, Mets and Red Sox are among the clubs said to be interested in playing in Cuba. The Miami Marlins would be a natural. The only big league club to play in Cuba since 1959 is Baltimore, which played the Cuban national team in Havana in 1999.
4. A Walk in the Park for the Twins?
Many were surprised that the Minnesota Twins won the exclusive negotiating rights with slugging Korean first baseman Byung Ho Park, but with the game flush with television and Internet money and the Twins emerging as one of the more promising teams in 2015, the timing is absolutely right.
In fact, the timing is right for one other reason that has nothing to do with the Twins: the impressive play of Pittsburgh shortstop Jung Ho Kang in '15 helped convince many doubting major league executives that Korean hitters can translate into the major leagues. Kang, 28, hit .287 for the Pirates last season with a .355 on-base percentage and 15 homers over 467 plate appearances in 126 games.
Park, 29, is viewed as a project because while he hit 53 home runs in the Korea Baseball Organization last year, the right-handed slugger also struck out 161 times in 622 plate appearances.
With Joe Mauer locked in at first base, Park would likely slot in as Minnesota's DH. And with Miguel Sano, Kennys Vargas, Trevor Plouffe and Oswaldo Arcia, the Twins have accumulated a pretty good collection of infield and outfield corner guys.
The Twins have 30 days to negotiate a contract with Park.
5. The Manager-less Dodgers
From nine candidates, a short list of those who will be invited back for a second interview is expected to emerge soon as Los Angeles, the only team now without a manager, looks to replace Don Mattingly.
Dodgers farm director Gabe Kapler, copacetic with the Dodgers' baseball brain trust of Andrew Friedman, Josh Byrnes and Farhan Zaidi, continues to be viewed in the industry as the favorite. Former Dodgers outfielder Dave Roberts, who was San Diego's bench coach the past several seasons, was impressive in his interview and is still in the running, according to sources. Dave Martinez, bench coach for Joe Maddon in Chicago and Tampa Bay, also is a serious candidate.
Beyond that, the Dodgers have interviewed former Padres manager Bud Black, former MVP (1988) and Diamondbacks manager Kirk Gibson, former A's manager Bob Geren, former Brewers manager Ron Roenicke (who was on the Dodgers coaching staff with another managerial candidate, Tim Wallach, last summer) and former major league outfielder and current University of Nebraska coach Darin Erstad.
All except Erstad have ties to the current Dodgers front office: Roberts and Black worked with Byrnes in San Diego. Gibson worked with Byrnes in Arizona. Martinez worked with Friedman in Tampa Bay. Geren worked with Zaidi in Oakland. Roenicke, Wallach and Kapler worked with Friedman, Byrnes and Zaidi in Los Angeles last year.
6. Free-Agent Power Rankings
My weekly take as agents bluster, suitors cluster and bean counters muster the courage to write those checks...
1. Zack Greinke: Gold Glove award precursor to Cy Young award? The Dodgers revealed this week they approached him with a contract offer during the season, per the Los Angeles Times' Dylan Hernandez. As with most opposing batters, he retired them easily.
2. David Price: The Cardinals announced Lance Lynn is out for 2016 following Tommy John surgery. Price sure would look good next to Adam Wainwright as St. Louis continues working to fend off the Cubs and Pirates in the spicy NL Central.
3. Jason Heyward: He will play most of next summer at the age of 26. And his on-base percentage and outfield defense will help somebody win.
4. Johnny Cueto: As sensitive as he appears to be, Cueto might not be cut out for a big market like Boston or Chicago. Hello...Arizona?
5. Yoenis Cespedes: How much money did his so-so October cost him?
7. Put Me in, Coach
I can be...center field.
One of the more underrated free agents this winter and a man who could be a team-changer is Denard Span, who spent the past three seasons in Washington. He plays a mean center field, and his career on-base percentage is .352. But at 31 and having played in only 61 games for the Nationals last summer, he has some things to prove.
Interesting take on Span, who opened the season on the disabled list and then didn't play after Aug. 26, from a person close to the Nationals: "I'd be all over him [in the free-agent market]. But you know the funny thing? Supposedly he wasn't hurt that badly in September and could have come back. But his confidence was so shot I think it convinced him that it was going to hurt his position to come back."
Span wound up batting .301/.365/.431 in 61 games this season, so the confidence issue had more to do with his body and his physical shape, not his numbers. It was a rough year physically for him: He underwent abdominal surgery in March, just three months after his first core surgery. Span opened the season on the disabled list and later admitted he rushed back too soon. He believed that compensating for his core weakness contributed to back spasms that knocked him back onto the disabled list in August.
Of the Nationals' bevy of injuries in 2015, the source close to the club says, "Span was the biggest loss of all of them for me. He's a true leadoff guy. A legitimate, true leadoff hitter."
8. The Angels' Dilemma
New GM Billy Eppler inherits some talent in Anaheim but also a roster that has issues. And one of those was highlighted by this week's announcement that slugger Albert Pujols underwent surgery on his plantar plate in his right foot and will resume baseball activities in four-and-a-half months.
That puts Pujols' availability for Opening Day in doubt. And while that in itself might not be a major issue if all goes well in his recovery—especially given that he smashed 40 homers and knocked in 95 runs last year—this is: Pujols turns 36 in January and the Angels still owe him $165 million over the next six years. He has a full no-trade clause. And he batted a career-low .244 in 2015, including hitting .224 over the final four weeks.
9. Farewell, Torii
Few players relate to teammates, organizations, fans and communities like Torii Hunter, a one-of-a-kind talent plus personality who formally retired last week.
Or, as he quipped at his farewell press conference in Minnesota, "Did I say I was retired? No, I said I was real tired."
When I first met Torii, he was a 22-year-old outfielder at Double-A New Britain and I was covering the Twins for the St. Paul Pioneer Press. It was August 1997, and the Twins called him to the majors for a brief time in Baltimore. Brief? He pinch ran once that weekend, then they shipped him back to New Britain.
He wasn't progressing through the minors quite as quickly as they were hoping, and they wanted to give him a taste of the majors. They figured spending a weekend with Paul Molitor, Terry Steinbach, LaTroy Hawkins, manager Tom Kelly and Co. would be a good influence, and it was. Two years later he was back for good.
Kirby Puckett was a huge influence on Hunter. Though they never played together in the majors, during his first spring training as a minor leaguer with the Twins, they situated his locker between Puckett and Dave Winfield. It is because of Puckett that Hunter often would buy rookies their first suit.
He also was influenced by late Hall of Famer Harmon Killebrew. Hunter always told teammates to make sure their autographs were legible. Killebrew was big on this and taught it to Hunter: If a fan can't read your scribble, years later when he or she picks up that autographed baseball, that fan is going to forget you.
It will be a long time before baseball forgets Hunter, one of its greatest ambassadors. So until he returns as a broadcaster or executive (I think he's more interested in putting teams together than he is in coaching, but we'll see), there is this excellent video produced by the Twins from Hunter's retirement press conference:
Scott Miller covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.
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