As a devoted Chicago Cubs fan for more than a decade now, I have long been keenly aware of the plight of Ron Santo. Santo, who was a key cog during the Cubs' quasi-revival in the late 1960s and early 1970s, now broadcasts Cubs games for WGN radio, and so remains (alongside Ernie Banks) the face of the Cubs franchise, some 35 years after the end of his illustrious career.
Unlike the incomparable Banks however, Santo is not a member of the Hall of Fame. For years, he has consistently fallen short, generally by narrow margins, and remains on the outside looking in even as he approaches his 80th birthday. The story becomes all the more poignant each time Santo, who has battled diabetes since his youth, has another bout of serious illness.
In another world, there is another Santo. Among the flashy, slick, one-dimensional men that now populate the enormous majority of Major League Baseball's hot corners, there stands one vestige of the grit, hustle, and fundamental prowess that Santo emphasized throughout his 15 seasons.
That man is Scott Rolen and, according to mlb.com's Mark Sheldon , he and the Reds have just agreed to extend his current contract through 2012.
Rolen will turn 35 just prior to Opening Day 2010. Santo, largely because of his condition, played only through age 34. Santo played 15 seasons of Major League ball, one more than Rolen has recorded so far. Thus, it is the perfect time to draw the parallels that exist between them, in order to determine which (if either) should merit induction into Cooperstown.
In his 15 campaigns, Santo posted a batting line of .277/.362/.464. Rolen, meanwhile, has current career numbers that outstrip Santo's across the board: .284/.370/.498. Given the differences between the eras in which the two played, however, those numbers are nearly a wash.
Santo's career OPS+ (which shows what percentage above or below average a player's offensive output was, relative to his league, and weighted such that 100 is average) was a very solid 125. That bests Rolen's career mark of 124 by the narrowest of margins. In terms of adjusted runs created (wRC+, scaled the same way OPS+ is), Santo's advantage is a bit larger: 131, to Rolen's 128.
Moreover, in an era that saw much lower power numbers than Rolen's, Santo nonetheless swatted 342 career home runs. Rolen, who has battled injury at certain points of his career, has more than 2000 plate appearances fewer than the ironman Santo; still, his 283 home runs is hardly the stuff of Hall of Fame voters' fancy.
Working back in Rolen's favor, he has a modicum of baserunning speed, with 114 career steals in 160 attempts. Santo, meanwhile, logged just 35 steals in 76 tries. Rolen's career speed score is also superior to Santo's, by a mark of 4.6 to 3.1.
It hardly matters which man is the better offensive star, however, for that is not the strength of either man's game. Rolen, with time still left to claim another, has seven Gold Gloves to his credit already. Santo, in his own right, won five.
Advanced defensive metrics (which, it is only fair to point out, did not exist during Santo's playing days) heavily favor Rolen: He has a career runs above average mark (as measured by zone rating) of 143.5, miles and miles ahead of Santo's 34.3.
Rolen has made five All-Star games against Santo's nine. But Rolen also has a Rookie of the Year award to his credit, and won the 2006 World Series as a member of the St. Louis Cardinals.
In that Series, he hit a robust .421/.476/.737, with a home run and three doubles in the five-game Series. As all Cubs fans well know, neither Santo nor Banks ever got to appear in the postseason, despite their best efforts.
Ultimately, Santo gets the edge in this reporter's analysis. Both men deserve strong consideration, however, and along with Atlanta's Chipper Jones, Rolen makes a strong case to be one of his generation's best third basemen.
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