Cubs Fever has overtaken November. Now should we expect Anthony Rizzo to stun Bryce Harper in Thursday’s National League MVP voting, too?
Not so fast. But in three days running, the Cubs have gone 3-for-3 in the biggest NL Baseball Writers’ Association of America awards. Had they hit like that last month, the New York Mets never would have swept them in the NL Championship Series. Whoops.
So, after Kris Bryant won Rookie of the Year honors and Joe Maddon took the Manager of the Year trophy, should Jake Arrieta have won the NL Cy Young Award?
Yes. And no.
Stare at his historical second half this summer and of course he should have won it. No doubt about it.
But stare at Zack Greinke’s 1.66 ERA and 19-3 record and he should have won it. Of course. And focus on Clayton Kershaw’s 301 strikeouts and his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, which isolates the numbers a pitcher can control, like strikeouts, walks and home runs) and he should have won it.
Talk about getting trapped in a maze. Break down the NL Cy Young race this year and there was no way you could find a clear path to the piece of cheese at the end.
Honestly, the biggest shocker of this thing was that there was a 22-point difference in the vote: Arrieta checking in at 169 points, Greinke at 147 and Kershaw lagging in third at 101.
I thought for sure this would be one of the closest votes in history, rivaling the 2012 AL vote (David Price over Justin Verlander by four points), the 1987 NL vote (Steve Bedrosian over Rick Sutcliffe by two points) and the 1981 NL vote (Fernando Valenzuela over Tom Seaver by three points).
Justice would have been served, in fact, had Arrieta and Greinke tied. Only once before in Cy Young history has that happened, when Detroit’s Denny McLain and Baltimore’s Mike Cuellar shared the AL honor in 1969.
Instead, Arrieta had this thing on cruise control.
“I’m a little relieved, honestly, to finally know how it played out,” he said on the MLB Network telecast that announced the winner.
He thanked all of the guys “I’ve continued to compete against year in and year out to make me take my game to the next level.” He congratulated Bryant and Maddon for their winning earlier in the week.
You wondered if maybe the late Ernie Banks was pulling some strings from the Great Beyond, the way so many dice continue to come up “Cubs” this year.
But you know what? It’s all good.
Personally, I would have voted Cardinals manager Mike Matheny first and Maddon second, given the levers Matheny pulled to push St. Louis to the best record in the majors despite getting sideswiped by so many injuries. But Maddon did a phenomenal job, too, and clearly is a worthy winner.
Personally, I also would have voted Greinke first and Arrieta second simply based on Greinke’s body of work from Opening Day through the finish line. Greinke was so methodical that his ERA never once was above 2.00 for even a day this summer. His highest ERA was 1.97 on June 2, and it only went down from there.
Astounding. And now it turns out, according to STATS LLC, via the Associated Press, that all Greinke gets is the second-lowest ERA for a qualifying pitcher who didn’t win the Cy Young Award since 1956, the award’s first year. Cleveland’s Luis Tiant posted a 1.60 ERA in 1968, and all it took to beat him that year was winning 30 games, as Detroit’s Denny McLain did (31-6, 1.96 ERA).
Arrieta’s ERA “soared” as high as 3.40 on June 16, then dropped like a ripe watermelon from a 32nd-floor window.
Making his run even more impressive is he pitched in a division containing the three teams that finished with the three best records in the majors. Against the Cardinals and Pirates combined, he was 5-2 with a 1.46 ERA in nine starts.
See? You can split this thing in nearly any direction. Maybe that’s the angle that, for Arrieta, trumps Greinke’s pitching in a more pitcher-friendly division and ballpark (Dodger Stadium vs. Wrigley Field).
Arrieta’s emergence this season seemingly came out of nowhere, though he did go 10-5 with a 2.53 ERA in 25 starts for the Cubs in 2014. But as recently as 2012, he was working in Baltimore’s bullpen.
The night of his August no-hitter in Dodger Stadium, Cubs pitching coach Chris Bosio told me Arrieta has been able to relax and be himself in Chicago.
“I think he was unsure about himself and where he was in his career,” Bosio said. “He’s relaxed here, and that’s been huge. He’s not putting so much pressure on himself.”
Plus, he has been pitching more freely in Chicago. The Cubs have given him more latitude than did the Orioles.
“Even if he throws ball one, he can have two or three different options off of the next pitch,” Bosio told me. “And if he throws strike one, he has maybe three other options off of the next pitch.”
Options have been a beautiful thing for Arrieta and, by extension, for the Cubs.
“This award was a long time coming,” Arrieta said on the MLB Network broadcast. “There’s been a lot of adjusting, and I’m still learning. This game is very difficult.”
Except, along with Greinke and Kershaw, he turned the amazing trick of making it look easy this summer.
He went on, talking about “grinding through Triple-A” and reaching the pivotal point that most major leaguers eventually reach, “second-guessing myself, wondering if I’m able to play this game at this level.”
Those days are long gone, and as his friend sprayed him with champagne and his family whooped and hollered and another Cub won another prestigious award, you wondered: Next time, will the champagne be spraying in the Cubs clubhouse after they win the ultimate award in October?
"It's pretty obvious with the crop of young talent we have" that the Cubs are here to stay, Arrieta said on a conference call shortly after winning the award. "Having playoff experience under our belt, having the better part of a full season under their belts, having the leadership we have to lean on in situations of doubt or concern, it's conducive to only getting better and I think sky’s the limit.
"Kris Bryant can play the outfield, he can play third base, we can move Addy [Addison Russell] around the infield, we have tremendous young athletes at a very young age. We have arms that will be around for a while, and we're probably going to make some moves for others.
"And it's only going to make our ballclub stronger."
Scott Miller covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.
Follow Scott on Twitter and talk baseball.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
- Login to post comments