Because 2015 was an odd year, the San Francisco Giants' having a down year was inevitable. As evidenced by their World Series titles in 2010, 2012 and 2014, even years are their jams.
So, obviously they'll be back on top in 2016.
So we can cheekily assume, anyway. However, the Giants themselves must not cheekily assume anything. They're not in a position to sit back and wait for their customary visit from the Even-Year Magic Fairy. They're going to have to own the offseason market and make the blasted thing show up.
For executive vice president of baseball operations Brian Sabean and general manager Bobby Evans, the goal is to take a team that won 84 games and missed the playoffs in 2015 and upgrade it to a championship-caliber club for 2016. To this end, the good news is that they need not start from scratch.
The Giants have the best catcher in baseball in Buster Posey, who's still in his prime heading into his age-29 season. Playing in front of him is an entirely young infield—Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, Matt Duffy and Brandon Crawford—that was the class of the league in 2015.
The Giants also have excellent anchors for their rotation and bullpen in ace left-hander Madison Bumgarner and rejuvenated right-hander Sergio Romo, respectively. The man in charge of it all is Bruce Bochy, who may be baseball's best manager.
With all these pieces in place, the Giants have a very, very strong foundation for a contending team. The word is that Wolverine wants to liquefy it and use it to replace his adamantium claws. True story.
Sounds good. Now all the Giants need is the rest of a contending team.
The list of needs starts with their rotation. Giants starters did rank 11th in MLB with their 3.95 ERA in 2015, but that figure was heavily skewed by certain, ahem, Bumgarner-y forces. And through the offseason's first month, he remains the only solid starter penciled into the club's 2016 rotation.
Then there's the outfield. FanGraphs put it at 19th in MLB in WAR in 2015, and a big improvement isn't in the cards as long as Gregor Blanco, Angel Pagan and Hunter Pence are penciled into starting roles. Pence should be fine after an injury-marred 2015, but Pagan is generally bad, and Blanco's ideal role is as a fourth outfielder.
Lastly, there's the bullpen. It was pretty good, ranking seventh in MLB with a 3.33 ERA. But with Jeremy Affeldt now off to the rocking-chair-filled world of retirement, the Giants could use at least one more able body in the pen.
There's your Giants offseason checklist in a nutshell: definitely starting pitching, definitely an outfielder and ideally a reliever. And the bigger the names, the better.
As those who have been listening to the rumor mill will know, that seems to be what the Giants are thinking as well.
Particularly when it comes to their need for starting pitching. The Giants have been strongly linked to ace right-hander Zack Greinke, who opted out of his contract with the rival Los Angeles Dodgers after leading MLB with a 1.66 ERA in 2015. And though the Dodgers won't let him go without a fight, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports heard that the Giants are a real threat to steal Greinke and pair him with Bumgarner.
“We don’t want to keep up with them," said Evans of the Dodgers and their typically awesome starting pitching, via Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News. "We want to pass them."
Indeed, which explains the club's list of alternatives.
A scroll through the Giants' page at MLB Trade Rumors will take you to buzz linking them to still-available aces Johnny Cueto and John Lackey. Re-signing Mike Leake, whom the Giants acquired in a July trade, is also in play. Same goes for a trade for young Atlanta Braves ace Shelby Miller.
Likewise, the Giants also have some notable names on their outfield and bullpen radars. Among the outfielders they've been linked to are Yoenis Cespedes, Ben Zobrist, Jay Bruce and Marcell Ozuna. Among the relievers they've been linked to are Darren O'Day and Joakim Soria.
In all, it definitely doesn't sound like the Giants are going to get cheap on us. They haven't made any noise yet, but they're window shopping at places where only big spenders are welcome.
The thing is, there's a slightly concerning lesson to be learned from the Giants' recent history.
When you look back at what the Giants did after missing the playoffs in 2011 and 2013, what you expect to see is a championship-hungry team that went wild on the offseason market.
Instead, you see a team that displayed a Fonzie-like level of cool. After 2011, the Giants' big moves were a pair of upside-play trades that netted them Melky Cabrera and Angel Pagan. After 2013, their big moves were signing Tim Hudson and Mike Morse to cheap, low-risk contracts.
Of course, these four moves ended up paying significant dividends. Because of that, Sabean and Evans do have something of a comfort zone to fall back on if they miss out on their top targets this winter.
You know, sort of like how they did last year.
Though the Giants were coming off their third World Series title in five seasons last year, they still had a lot of work to do. Pablo Sandoval's free agency created a hole at third base, and the Giants also needed to add some rotation depth behind Bumgarner.
The Giants made no secret of their desire to go big to fill these needs, but...yeah...that didn't go so well.
The Giants whiffed on re-signing Sandoval, and then whiffed on Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas, who was rumored to be their Plan B at third base. Up next was a shot at Jon Lester, who spurned them for the Chicago Cubs. There was some buzz at the time pointing them toward Max Scherzer or James Shields, but both got away.
The Giants' response to these whiffs was to retreat into their comfort zone. They pulled off a small trade for Casey McGehee to replace Sandoval and brought back Jake Peavy and Ryan Vogelsong to round out their rotation. Additional deals for Sergio Romo and Nori Aoki rounded out their depth chart.
One can imagine the Giants backing away from their top targets and pursuing a similar strategy this winter.
After all, Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area did note that Evans was coy about pursuing top starting-pitching targets at a year-end press conference in October, saying, "You don’t necessarily need to solve the rotation for the next seven years this offseason.” It's conceivable that the Giants could move for cheap options and hope to find impact players from within, like they did with Panik and Duffy. They could do the same with their outfield and bullpen needs.
What they need to remember, though, is that the low-risk approach can fail.
You know, like it did in 2015. McGehee lasted about a month before he was cut loose, and Peavy and Vogelsong contributed little to the club's starting pitching. In all, the Giants learned the arguably overdue lesson that, yes, trying to be clever rather than bold can fail.
That's one reason for them for them to keep their eyes on the big prizes this winter. There's also the other one: The Giants really have no excuse not to go big.
For one, there's the reality that their two biggest areas of need (starting pitching and outfield) also happen to be the two deepest areas of what might be the best class of free agents in MLB history. Even if the Giants don't land one of the market's top starters or outfielders, they have a variety of strong secondary options to choose from.
For two, it's not as if the Giants are lacking in financial flexibility. As Jeff Todd wrote at MLB Trade Rumors, that was actually the big benefit of last year's offseason whiffs:
As a result of that relatively quiet offseason a year ago, the Giants now have ample future spending capacity to deploy this winter. The team has a fair amount of cash on the books already for next year (about $120MM, before arb) and 2017 (~$73MM, pre-arb), but little thereafter. And this is an organization that pushed its Opening Day payroll over $170MM last year.
Lastly, now is a pretty good time for the Giants to make a move on the Dodgers.
Greinke's absence leaves their rotation extremely vulnerable. Their bullpen is still weak. They basically don't have a second baseman. And as always, their outfield has its share of question marks. As currently constructed, the Dodgers are in no position to go chase a fourth straight NL West title.
Given all this, it'll be an upset if the Giants don't turn their big offseason plans into big offseason action. Doing so will require wandering outside their comfort zone, but there's enough cash in their pockets and items on the shelf for them to make it work.
And if they do, this time there would actually be a solid explanation for their even-year magic.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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