First, let's get this out of the way: The San Diego Padres aren't sunk.
Yes, they enter the second half of the season at 41-49, 10 games back in the National League West and 7.5 games off the wild-card pace.
But if this parity-filled 2015 campaign has taught us anything, it's that every club is a decent hot streak away from contention.
Still, this isn't how the script was supposed to play out in San Diego.
Led by bold, new general manager A.J. Preller, the Friars had one of the most active offseasons in franchise history. They remade the outfield with trades for Justin Upton, Wil Myers and Matt Kemp. They acquired catcher Derek Norris from the Oakland A's and third baseman Will Middlebrooks from the Boston Red Sox.
They signed James Shields, one of the premier starting pitchers on the market. And, on the eve of their regular season, they engineered a swap with the Atlanta Braves that netted closer Craig Kimbrel.
After the Kimbrel trade, ESPN.com's David Schoenfield dubbed Preller "a guy who wants to win" and praised his willingness to jettison tomorrow's potential talent for a shot at postseason glory today:
Prospects? Who needs prospects? Preller has now dealt away [Matt] Wisler, Trea Turner, Joe Ross, Max Fried, Zach Eflin, Jace Peterson and R.J. Alvarez, seven of the team's top 11 prospects entering the offseason, according to Baseball America. … The question is whether Preller has built a baseball team or a collection of talent.
The answer, so far, seems to be the latter. And, in some cases, "talent" is a generous term.
Yes, Upton—the Padres' lone All-Star—is having a nice all-around season with 14 home runs, 48 RBI and 17 stolen bases.
Shields leads the team with 131 strikeouts and 116.2 innings pitched, and Kimbrel has converted 23 of 24 save opportunities while punching out 48 in 33.1 innings.
Others, however, have fallen far short of expectations. Middlebrooks, who came to San Diego seeking a career resurrection, owns an anemic .215/.242/.367 slash line. And Kemp has defined punchless with a scant eight big flies and a pedestrian .674 OPS.
The glass-half-full perspective is that some of the underachievers may yet achieve.
Kemp has been a late-surging player over the course of his career, posting a higher batting average, slugging percentage and OPS after the break. A mini-power binge during which he hit two home runs in the Pads' most recent four games offers a glimmer of hope.
Realistically, though, Preller's grand experiment reeks of failure. He shot for the moon, and the bullet landed on his loafer.
What to do? One option is to stand pat, to keep the club intact and see how the summer unfolds. Another is to double down, to cash in what chips remain in San Diego's system for a marquee trade target or two and angle for a miracle finish.
The smartest course, though—and the one most likely to set up the Padres for future success—is to shift into sell mode and start dangling pieces.
It'll mean Preller swallowing his pride and admitting his grand offseason push sent the franchise careening into a ditch, sure.
But it's the prudent course. And there's evidence Preller and the Pads are considering it.
On July 11, Peter Gammons reported that San Diego has "asked other teams about possible interest in Shields."
Upton has also been the subject of persistent trade rumors. But as he told ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick during the All-Star festivities in Cincinnati, he still has faith in his current club.
"At this point, I haven't given up on the team," Upton said. "I really like the guys, and I like the clubhouse. We still have some time to change the minds of the front office. In a perfect world, we play well over the next two or three weeks and A.J. pumps the brakes on dismantling the team."
That's exactly what you'd hope to hear from your star player, and maybe Preller is listening.
He'd be better served listening to the members of the Pads organization who, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney, think "it is time to reload and restructure for next season, and the best way to do that is to add players who can help in the future and create more financial flexibility."
Now, a cynic might argue, for the Padres to trade their way out of this, they'll have to rely on the same guy who traded them into it. That's a fair point.
But Preller deserves credit, at least, for thinking big. And he should have the opportunity to clean up his own mess.
If he fails at that, too? Well, then it might be time to go shopping for a new GM.
All statistics current as of July 15 and courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.
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