Max Scherzer spent the 2014 season doing more than just playing baseball. During the course of the year, from spring training through the playoffs, the free-agent right-hander also was conducting a rather interesting—and really risky—experiment of sorts.
Coming off a career year in which he won the American League Cy Young in 2013, Scherzer famously rejected a six-year, $144 million extension from the Detroit Tigers last March.
At the time, that amount would have made him the seventh highest-paid pitcher in history, which is why the decision could have been described as anything from questionable to silly to selfish—and, yes, even brilliant.
Sure, Scherzer could have signed on the dotted line right then and there and secured more money than just about any human being has a right even to dream earning in a lifetime.
Instead, Scherzer gambled on himself, figuring that with another strong season, he would be entering free agency, where his market would explode from a single team (the Tigers) to all 30 clubs in Major League Baseball. So, too, would the money.
"Back then only we could have signed him," Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski said, via Joel Sherman of the New York Post, about last March's offer. "Now, 29 other teams could sign him. As you see, the odds don’t improve."
That's how Scherzer and superagent Scott Boras, who almost always gets top dollar for his elite clients, decided to let this experiment play out.
After a 2014 season that was nearly as great as his award-winning 2013—his ERA (2.90 in '13 vs. 3.15 in '14) and FIP (2.74 vs. 2.85) were more or less the same—Scherzer has set himself up rather nicely this offseason.
Or has he?
While the 30-year-old right-hander unquestionably is going to get a massive multiyear, nine-figure contract, there are reasons he and Boras might be sweating things out at least a little bit, even as the temperatures dip this winter.
For one thing, a number of teams already have spent big merely a month into the offseason.
The Tigers, with whom Scherzer played the past five years, chose to re-sign designated hitter Victor Martinez for $68 million.
The Boston Red Sox, who have a major need for starting pitching, handed out large contracts to position players Hanley Ramirez ($88 million over four years) and Pablo Sandoval ($95 million for five).
The Toronto Blue Jays, another team that has a hole at the top of its rotation, splurged on catcher Russell Martin, who netted $82 million, the second-largest deal in franchise history.
The Arizona Diamondbacks, yet another club searching for arms, signed outfielder Yasmany Tomas—perhaps the next Cuban phenom—to a six-year, $68.5 million pact.
The Seattle Mariners just agreed to pay DH Nelson Cruz $57 million to help them end their 13-year playoff drought after inking third baseman Kyle Seager to a $100 million extension.
Put simply, a number of teams that could have splurged on Scherzer—and a lot of the money that could have been forked over to him—now cannot.
The second reason Scherzer's experiment might not necessarily pay off quite as much as he and Boras had hoped? The pitching market is absolutely flooded at the moment.
There are all kinds of free-agent arms, including high-end names Jon Lester and James Shields, as well as others like Francisco Liriano, Ervin Santana and Brandon McCarthy.
And on the trade front, there are even more highly regarded options. Among them? The Philadelphia Phillies' Cole Hamels, the Oakland Athletics' Jeff Samardzija, the Washington Nationals' Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister, the Cincinnati Reds' Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos and the San Diego Padres' Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner and Ian Kennedy.
With so many pitchers readily and apparently available, it's at least possible that teams will look elsewhere at less expensive—but still very good—options rather than give in to Scherzer and Boras' demands.
In such a scenario, they might not be able to do much better than the $144 million.
"It's not the best time to be looking for a big deal," one unnamed GM told Buster Olney of ESPN (subscription required).
On the other hand, two things remain very much in Scherzer's favor.
First, he is considered arguably the best free agent on the market this offseason along with Lester. Historically speaking, that player almost always gets paid as much as—if not more than—expected.
And because he is a free agent, Scherzer's services can be acquired strictly for cash. Granted, the signing team also will lose a draft pick because he rejected the qualifying offer, but the club won't have to surrender talent from the major or minor leagues to get him, unlike a team would for each of the trade candidates above.
Second, there has been almost no action involving pitchers so far.
The most notable free agent to sign so far? That'd be A.J. Burnett, who turns 38 in January and got $8.5 million from the Pittsburgh Pirates after posting a 4.59 ERA for the Phillies and then considering retirement.
In terms of trades, the biggest pitchers to change jerseys are Shelby Miller, who went from the St. Louis Cardinals to the Atlanta Braves, and Jeremy Hellickson, who went from the Tampa Bay Rays to the Diamondbacks. (Is your spine also not tingling?)
That means the high point of the salary scale for pitchers hasn't been set or even approached yet.
That could change soon, as there has been plenty of heat around Lester, who has met with several clubs and reportedly has an offer of $138 million from the Chicago Cubs, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
If the left-hander gets $130 million to $140 million—or more—than Scherzer should be able to beat that considering he is as good as, if not better than, Lester and thus would become indisputably the premier target left on the open market.
The other factor here? Boras is known for his slow-burn strategy, having his top-tier clients remain available for a long time, well beyond the winter meetings and even occasionally into the new year, at which point the market clears up and desperation starts to seep in—for the teams.
As Olney writes:
Some club evaluators fully expect Scherzer's contract talks to carry over for weeks, as agent Scott Boras works to make a big deal happen—something significantly more than the six-year, $144 million deal that the Tigers offered to Scherzer in the spring. Boras' negotiations often play out way past the winter meetings, and there is so little current buzz around Scherzer.
To that end, the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees, the teams with the two highest payrolls in 2014, have yet to do much of anything this offseason.
While the former doesn't have a huge need for a starting pitcher and the latter claims to be staying away from big-money contracts (for once), per the New York Daily News, it wouldn't be a shock to see one or both go in on Scherzer, depending on how their plans work out—or don't.
Scherzer and Boras ultimately need only two suitors willing to spend in order to create leverage and drive up the price for the right-hander.
While it's been quiet so far, chances are the top free agent and top agent will be able to devise just such a scenario, one likely involving more than two teams.
Once that happens, whether it's in the coming days, weeks or even in a month or two, expect Scherzer to do better than the $144 million he turned down.
The ultimate price tag attached to him might not be much above that amount, but even if it's $145 million—to say nothing of $150 million or $160 million—the plan will have been carried out as predicted.
Scherzer's experiment will have worked.
Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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