Opening Day 2011 is less than a week away, and the Washington Nationals have yet to officially name their starting center fielder. Unofficially, the Washington Post is reporting that Rick Ankeil will get the nod, essentially banishing Nyjer Morgan to Syracuse to start the season.
Apparently the Nationals have chosen power over speed, which does not exactly jive with what they have been doing in the offseason. If this was the plan from the beginning, couldn’t they have kept Josh Willingham and played either Jayson Werth or Mike Morse in center?
I know Morgan had a terrible season in 2010, but Rick Ankeil actually played worse.
(And for those of you who aren’t statistically inclined, bare with me.)
Morgan sported a WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of .9; Ankeil’s WAR was at .7, which basically means that Morgan contributed .9 more wins to his team compared to a “average replacement player” (think Willie Harris) and Ankiel contributed .7.
Defensively, Morgan is a far better player than Ankeil. In 2010, Ankiel posted a UZR of -.5 compared to Morgan’s 3.0. For those of you not familiar with the UZR stat, that means Ankiel is a slightly below average defender, and Morgan is an above average defender. In 2009, Morgan posted a UZR of 27.6, which is the equivalent to the Plastic Man with a glove.
Center field is one of the most important defensive positions, and the Nats have chosen to put a liability there. And for what? A marginal offensive player. For a player who has hit 17 home runs combined in the last two seasons.
Offensively, Rick Ankiel is the better player, but only slightly. In 2010, he posted a better OBP than Morgan, but just slightly–.321 to .319. But a lot of that can be attributed to luck, or lack thereof.
Morgan’s putrid seasons was made even worse by his unluckiness. Morgan’s batting average on balls put in play (BABIP) was .304, which is around the league average, but way below the average of players with the type of speed Morgan possesses. In 2008 and 2009, Morgan’s BABIP was .364 and .355, respectively.
BABIP is not a skill-based statistic. The average is around .300, for both good and bad players alike. The key is putting balls in play, and in 2010, Morgan’s contact percentage was just as high as it has been in his career: around 85 percent.
So it can be argued that Morgan’s disastrous season at the dish in 2010 may have had more to do with bad luck than bad play.
Ankiel actually posted a BABIP of .319, well above the league and his career average, and despite his luck, he hit only .253. This can be attributed to his low contact percentage (74 percent). His low contact percentage can be attributed to his poor discipline at the plate. Ankiel swings at pitches out of the zone 33.2 percent of the time. Morgan is a little more disciplined swinging at balls only 31.2 percent of the time.
In all, Morgan contributes more to the team overall, is a better defender, and a more disciplined hitter whose 2010 season may have been an unlucky aberration—at least the stats say so.
And after processing all those stats, if you are confused, it’s okay; now you know how I felt when I heard Ankiel was starting.
(Stats courtesy of fangraphs.com)
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