In a vacuum, news that Washington Nationals starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg has strained the flexor mass in his right elbow might seem like a gut punch to the team’s hopes of winning the World Series.
Strasburg is, after all, a former No. 1 overall pick who has looked every bit an ace through much of the 2016 season.
Though Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post is reporting that Washington’s righty may not be done for the year, it’s only reasonable to look at the worst-case scenario, one in which Strasburg is unable to pitch again in 2016.
And you know something? It doesn’t look all that bad.
Throughout the season, the Nationals have boasted one of MLB’s best starting staffs. Washington’s starters have an ERA of 3.46, second only to the Chicago Cubs.
Sure, Strasburg has been a part of that. His ERA was 2.63 after an August 1 start and has since ballooned to 3.60, largely due to an injury-filled month.
But it’s more a credit to the depth of a staff that includes players such as Max Scherzer (2.88 ERA), Tanner Roark (2.89 ERA) and Joe Ross (3.49 ERA).
The Nationals hold an eight-game lead in the NL East, so there’s little concern that this team will get to the playoffs. The worry is whether Strasburg’s absence will be felt in October.
But what the players on this staff have proved—particularly Scherzer and Roark—is that they’re capable of filling the void in the rotation. Scherzer leads baseball with a 0.92 WHIP and was already considered Washington’s ace even before the Strasburg injury. Roark’s 1.18 WHIP is only marginally worse than Strasburg’s 1.10.
And while Strasburg’s record of 15 wins ranks second on the team, that’s partially because he’s getting an NL-best 6.50 runs of support per start. Several players, including Nationals back-end starters Gio Gonzalez (4.40 ERA) and A.J. Cole (4.56 ERA), are capable of holding a team to under six runs.
In fact, most starters' seasons would look pretty good with that kind of run support.
The Nationals also have one of the NL’s best offenses, having scored only 30 fewer runs (667) than the league-leading Cubs. So it’s reasonable to assume whichever starter is on the mound will get support from the team’s offense.
But a team only needs two dominant starters to win a playoff series. They have that in Scherzer and Roark.
In the five-game division series, a team’s top-two starters are always scheduled to pitch three of those games. That’s all you need to win. So if Scherzer and Roark both pitch well, Washington shouldn't have any concerns about winning the NLDS.
In a seven-game championship series, a similar scenario would play out. Scherzer and Roark would be scheduled to pitch at least four games in a seven-game set—the exact number a team needs to advance.
Baseball has seen such a scenario play out. The pitching duo of Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson combined to pitch five games in the 2001 World Series, leading the Arizona Diamondbacks in a seven-game win over the New York Yankees.
They are Hall of Fame-caliber pitchers. But Schilling had a 2.98 ERA that season, worse than either Scherzer or Roark's totals.
It puts more pressure on the Washington duo, for sure. But they’re capable. And even if they falter, Nationals manager Dusty Baker holds an ace in his pocket: the team’s bullpen.
Washington’s relievers have been just as good as their starting counterparts. The unit’s 3.31 ERA ranks second in MLB among bullpens.
The Nationals have three relievers—Matt Belisle (1.88), Sammy Solis (2.35) and Blake Treinen (2.44)—who have made at least 30 appearances for the club and have ERAs under 3.00.
The group is an insurance policy that can easily be cashed in to pitch the last five innings of an important playoff game. Baseball saw the Kansas City Royals win the World Series last year with the game’s best bullpen.
Any time a pitcher like Strasburg gets injured, it makes the team worse. But assessing the damage of his loss isn’t found in comparing the team to where it was when he was playing at his peak.
Come October, the Nationals won’t be looking in the mirror. They’ll be staring down other NL teams.
So the doomsday scenario can be answered by asking this simple question: Do they Nationals still have the pieces to win?
Before Strasburg was hurt, it seemed as if Washington had more than enough to win a World Series. Without Strasburg, the team might have just enough.
But it’s all the same if the season ends with a trophy.
Seth Gruen is a national baseball columnist for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @SethGruen.
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