“Now let’s make this an evening
Lovers for a night, lovers for tonight
Stay here with me, love, tonight
Just for an evening
When we make
Our passion pictures
You and me twist up
Secret creatures
And we’ll stay here
Tomorrow go back to being friends”
For those of you not familiar with those lyrics, they are from one of my favorite Dave Matthews songs, “Say Goodbye.” It’s a song about two friends, who decide one night to become lovers and then the next day go back to being friends.
If I had to compare the relationship between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Chicago Cubs over the last couple of months, it would be very much like the Matthews’ song.
They met at a party and randomly became friends. They were friends for a bit, but all their friends knew they would eventually get together. Then after a night of some serious drinking and flirting, the two friends had a night Tommy Lee would have been proud of. The next morning they wake up and act as if nothing happened.
However, I think in this case, Cubs GM Jim Hendry woke up the next morning and said, what the heck did I just do?
The Rays and Cubs get together yesterday and completed a eight-player mega-deal that sent RHP Matt Garza, OF Fernando Perez and a minor league pitcher to the Cubs and RHP Chris Archer, OF Brandon Guyer, C Robinson Chirinos, SS Hak-Ju Lee and OF Sam Fuld.
There are a lot of components to this trade, so let’s take a look at each one individually.
Why the Rays Traded Away Garza
The Rays know if they are going to compete with the big pockets of the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, they are going to have to constantly reload—not rebuild. Rebuilding is what the Baltimore Orioles are doing. Reloading is what the Rays are doing.
In order to reload, the Rays took their third or fourth best starter and traded him for three of the 10 best prospects in the Cubs’ farm system. The Rays still have David Price, James Shields, Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann and Jeremy Hellickson set for their rotation, so Garza was expendable.
That’s how you reload, kids.
And the Rays aren’t reloading for 2012 or 2013, they are reloading for 2011. A lot of people think the Rays are mailing it in for the 2011 season and that this year will be a “bridge” year for the Rays.
That is completely not the case.
Despite the losses of Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett and now Garza, the Rays will be right there with the Yankees and Red Sox in 2011. And if the Rays get a DH like Manny Ramirez (perfect fit) or a closer (maybe bring in Brian Fuentes or bring back Rafael Soriano), they will REALLY be right there with the Red Sox and Yankees in 2011.
Why the Cubs Traded for Garza
I am going to have to admit, the Cubs’ obsession with Garza is a little puzzling. He’s not a jabroni, but he’s not an ace either. Why the Cubs would trade three of their top prospects for a No. 3 starter doesn’t make much sense to me.
The Cubs already have a bunch of No. 2 or 3 starters in their rotation with Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano and Randy Wells, so why add another one? If you are going to trade that many prospects for a pitcher, then the guy better be a legit ace.
In his three seasons with the Rays, Garza had a 3.86 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, and averaged 197 innings per season. In the American League East, those are pretty good numbers.
My guess is that the Cubs are hoping that for the next three seasons (free agent after 2013), Garza takes those pretty good numbers in the AL East and turns them into great numbers in the weaker National League Central.
While pitching in a weaker division may be true, Garza will also be pitching in front of a much weaker defense. The Cubs fielded one of the worst defensive teams in baseball in 2010 and it looks as if that won’t improve much in 2011. Garza, a contact pitcher, could suffer because of this.
Even with the acquisition of Gazra, the Cubs are still the fourth best team in their division.
What the Rays Received from the Cubs
The Rays got quite a haul from the Cubs, so let’s take a look at what they got. Information is courtesy of Baseball Prospectus.
Chris Archer: The No. 3 ranked prospect in the Cubs organization, Archer has a fastball in the mid-90′s, but struggles with his control. Despite his control struggles at times, the 22-year-old dominated Double A batters in 2010 to the tune of a 1.80 ERA in 70.
He projects as a No. 3 starter or a power closer.
Hak-Ju Lee: The No. 5 ranked prospect in the Cubs system, Lee hit .282/.354/.351 at Low-A in 2010. He is a slick-fielding SS who has good speed, but lacks any power and doesn’t project to gain any.
By the time Lee is ready for the majors, the Rays will already know if Reid Brignac can cut the mustard at the position.
Brandon Guyer: The former University of Virginia Cavalier had a monster year at Double A in 2010. He hit .344/.398/.588 in 102 games.
The soon-to-be 25-year-old has solid speed also as he has stolen 60 bases in 70 attempts in the last two seasons. He projects as a fourth outfielder or a starter on a second-division team.
Robinson Chirinos: The 12th ranked prospect in the Cubs organization was converted from an infielder to a catcher. Chirinos hit .326/.416/.583 with 18 HR in just 92 games combined in Double A and Triple A.
Sam Fuld: Fuld is 29 years old and sounds more like my accountant than a Major League Baseball player. He is a roster filler at this point in his career.
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