Alright, along with being a professional baseball player, and a sportswriter for ESPN, The Mag, a general manager for an MLB team is on my short list of dream jobs. Fantasy baseball has filled the craving to play with rosters, but playing with rosters that will actually go out and play against 29 other teams excites me tremendously.
I thought about it, and thought why not write about a fantasy of tinkering with a real team?
The Tampa Bay Rays are not very many pieces away from contending for a World Series, but those pieces, along with inconsistency from areas thought as strong spots, kept the Rays out of the playoffs.
So what's on Tampa Bay's concise wishlist this offseason? Bullpen, specifically a closer, a catcher, and a right fielder are all spots in question going into next year.
Without further ado, we'll begin at catcher.
Last year, the backstop was a massive problem for the Rays. Dioner Navarro, an All Star just the year before, suddenly couldn't hit, and his platoon mate, Greg Zaun, was...well, Greg Zaun.
Is it possible Navvy had an off year, and could bounce back with much more respectable numbers next year? Sure, but Tampa Bay will need some insurance if he doesn't.
Free-agent catchers are very weak in depth, with a huge drop off after Bengie Molina. I doubt the Rays will want to spend the money to get Molina, which leaves us with two players that caught my eye: Miguel Olivo and Jason Kendall. I looked into Yorvit Torrealba, Rod Barajas, and Brian Schneider, but because of their salaries and performances compared to Olivo's and Kendall's, Olivo and Kendall are the best options.
Miguel Olivo would certainly be the most attractive option at catcher, and he would be a great power bat in a high powered Tampa Bay offense.
In a terrible Royals offense, Olivo hit .249 with 23 homers and 65 rbis in only 390 at bats. However, Olivo strikes out a ton; striking out almost once every three at bats. Because of this, his on base percentage was .292, and would be more of a feast or famine option offensively.
Based on past salaries, Olivo is less expensive than Kendall, earning over two million dollars each of the past three years.
Jason Kendall would probably start the year in a platoon with Navarro for Tampa Bay, but he could take over the starting job if Navvy is as bad as he was last year. Although Kendall has only hit in the .240's the past three years, he doesn't strike out nearly as much as the other candidates in free agency, and can be the veteran presence behind the plate that the young Rays pitchers need.
The biggest downside to Kendall is his salary; he commanded a $5 million salary this year.
Unfortunately, all of the seasoned defensive backstops are expensive, so if the Rays don't want to spend money at catcher, we may be gambling on Navarro.
The move: Miguel Olivo, for a two-year deal, if he commands less than three million per year. If he asks for too much, we stay with Navvy and Michel Hernandez. I would prefer Kendall, because of his leadership and defensive skills, but he would probably ask too much.
Now we look into relievers and closers.
The Rays blew a ton of saves last year, and, although they have good relievers in Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, and JP Howell, none were consistent enough to take the closer job and run with it. The Rays need a steady closer to come in and just keep the lead.
The candidates? We could stay in the system and go with Howell, Wheeler, Balfour, or call upon the young Jake McGee. The free agent closers are Mike Gonzalez, Fernando Rodney, Rafael Soriano, Billy Wagner, Jose Valverde, and JJ Putz.
Gonzalez pitched very well last year, with a 2.42 ERA, striking out 90 batters in 74 and a third innings pitched, while only allowing 56 hits. He earned just under $3.5 million last year.
Rodney is nice because he earned $2.7 million last year. His stats aren't overwhelming, with a 4.4 ERA, but he did manage 37 saves, allowing 70 hits in 75 innings, and blew only one save.
Rafael Soriano is definitely the flashiest pickup of any of the experienced closers, saving 27 games last year with a 2.92 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 102 strikeouts in 75-2/3 innings. However, he is going to be very pricey, as he earned a little under $6.5 million last year.
JJ Putz is the wild card, because he was hurt last year, and we don't know what he will be asking for. He made six million last year, but had an abysmal year before he was hurt. He saved 15 games the year before last year, and 40 the year before that. An interesting choice, he might ask for a one-year deal loaded with incentives, with a lower starting salary.
Valverde is the most consistent of the bunch but is also the priciest. He earned $8 million last year but would definitely give Rays fans comfort going into the ninth inning. His ERA in the past three years has been 2.33, 3.38, and 2.66. He has saved 25, 44, and 47. He would be my favorite pickup of these guys, but the Rays would have to break the bank with a big deal, and I don't see them doing that.
Billy Wagner, although he earned more than Valverde last year, probably wouldn't get more than him this year. We all saw that Wagner could still bring it last year for the Red Sox, and he wants to close for a contender. The Rays could be that contender, but he would still ask for a lot of money.
We have four in house candidates. Dan Wheeler has pitched very well in Tampa Bay, with an ERA under 3.30 both years. Wheeler saved 13 games two years ago, and could be the Rays emergency closer this year.
Grant Balfour is a set-up man in the mold of a flame throwing righty. He had an off year last year, but showed stretches where he was unhittable. He should have a bounceback year next year.
JP Howell was our closer this year, saving 17 games with an ERA of 2.84. He blew eight saves, and that is the only reason the job is not locked up. He does have the clear advantage to closer if the Rays don't go out and get someone. However, crafty lefties aren't typically ideal closers.
Last but not least is Jake McGee, a hard throwing lefty prospect who has been a starter in the minors. He didn't pitch too well last year, but has progressed enough to be thought of as a closing option. I do not think he'll begin the year as closer, but if they don't get the ninth inning job locked down, McGee could be thrust into the job.
The move: to start out with JP Howell. If he falters, try Balfour, then McGee. No closer by committee is wanted by me; I would rather have one guy.
Getting one from the free agent market will be too expensive for Tampa Bay, so I would try Howell, Balfour, and McGee in that order. McGee could be the closer of the future, so I would almost be tempted to try him ahead of Balfour, if he is ready.
I would get another reliever, just to be sure of the bullpen. Takashi Saito would be a great move, as he only commanded $1.5 million last year and could take over as closer if needed.
Ben Zobrist will probably start the year at second, leaving right field open. I would love to see Desmond Jennings swoop in and answer this problem, or Matt Joyce to come through. The other solution would be to put Zobrist back in right, and put Sean Rodriguez or Reid Brignac at second. Neither one of these solutions requires Tampa Bay to get someone on the market.
Longoria and Tim Beckham are the clear futures of the Tampa Bay infield, but where Beckham will play is a huge question. Sean Rodriguez is a possibility to take over at first for Pena, and Brignac can play second, so that's a possibility, however it is unclear exactly what Rodriguez and Brignac's roles with the team will be.
As far as Burrell goes, I think you have to give him one more try at DH. If he doesn't work out, it wouldn't be so bad just to put Aybar, Rodriguez, or Joyce at DH.
So, to finish up, this would be my lineup if I was GM of the Rays.
Catcher: Miguel Olivo (depending on offer)/Dioner Navarro
First Base: Carlos Pena
Second Base: Ben Zobrist/Reid Brignac
Shortstop: Jason Bartlett
Third Base: Evan Longoria
Left Field: Carl Crawford
Center Field: BJ Upton
Right Field: Desmond Jennings (if ready)/Matt Joyce (if Jennings isn't)/Zobrist
DH: Pat Burrell
Bench: Brignac, Sean Rodriguez, Willy Aybar, Gabe Gross, Gabe Kapler, Fernando Perez
Rotation: Shields, Garza, Price, Niemann, Davis (no particular order)
MRP: Dan Wheeler, Jake McGee, Jeff Bennett, Jesse Chavez
SU: Grant Balfour, Takashi Saito
Closer: JP Howell
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