According to The New York Daily News' Adam Rubin, Jason Bay's agent, Joe Urban, has been MIA for the last few days. Sounds like classic dating trouble. Things were getting interesting, but now she's not answering the phone. "She's just not that into you," may apply.
Meanwhile, WEEI's Rob Bradford reports that the Red Sox are considering another offer to Bay. Sounds like Bay went looking for something better, realized he was throwing away a good thing, and is now trying to get Boston to take him back.
While Theo Epstein and company may consider re-signing Bay, I would urge them to hold their ground. Or, in poker lingo, knock.
Theo strikes me as a cool customer at the poker table. A master of statistics, he never risks his stack against the odds, and he doesn't allow his emotions to dictate his game. While Red Sox fans everywhere may panic over recent Yankee upgrades in center field and on the mound, Theo cannot afford to change his game.
If the Red Sox are going to re-invest in left field this year—and not wait for Carl Crawford—then it must be with Matt Holliday, not Jason Bay.
If the Red Sox are going to sign another big bat and break through that 2010 luxury-tax ceiling of $170 million, then why not pony up the few extra million for Holliday?
Between David Ortiz and Jason Varitek's $15.5 million and the $10.5 million owed to Julio Lugo, Billy Wagner and Alex Gonzalez, Boston has at least $26 million coming off the books at the end of 2010. That means Boston need only pay that 22.5% luxury tax for one year.
If you're going to go for it, go all the way.
Over the past four years—including an injury-plagued 2007—Jason Bay has produced $49.1 million dollars in WAR. If we are generous and exclude the year of non-production, Bay is worth about $16.4 million a year. A fair offer would pay him no more than $65.6 million over a four-year deal.
Over the past four years, Matt Holliday has produced $103.2 million dollars in WAR, more than double that produced by Bay. Holliday is worth approximately $25.8 million annually.
Will he command that kind of money? Absolutely not.
If you pay Bay $65 million over four years, the best you can hope for is that he matches his contract.
If you pay Holliday $100 million over five years, the odds are he will outperform even that hefty price tag.
Theo, don't take Bay back.
The one you really want is Holliday.
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