The Washington Nationals, already one of the deepest pitching teams in baseball, made a splash late Sunday night when they inked right-hander Max Scherzer to a massive seven-year free-agent deal.
The question now is, will the Nationals keep what could potentially be one of the best starting rotations in recent memory, or will they trade one of Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg in the days to come?
Things were fairly quiet on the Scherzer front leading up to the Nationals making their move, but the market's top free agent still managed to land the $200 million-plus deal he was seeking:
So, is this an all-in play by 89-year-old owner Ted Lerner or the first step in reworking the starting rotation ahead of Zimmermann and Doug Fister both hitting free agency?
Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports offered what he knows about the Nationals' activity this offseason and their future outlook:
The Nats, according to major-league sources, have discussed trades of Zimmermann, righty Stephen Strasburg and shortstop Ian Desmond the entire off-season. Their payroll, with the addition of Scherzer, will zoom to the $150 million range. That number, however, easily could drop in 2016.
Four Nationals players are entering their free-agent years —€” Zimmermann, Desmond, pitcher Doug Fister and center fielder Denard Span. Those players will earn a combined $47.9 million this season. After that, all four might be gone.
Zimmermann has been the most talked about potential trade chip this offseason, as the team has been unable to come to terms on an extension with the 28-year-old.
Fox Sports' Jon Morosi identified him as the most likely pitcher to be moved following the Scherzer signing:
However, it came as something of a surprise to hear that the team would also be willing to trade Strasburg if a Zimmermann deal didn't work out, per Morosi:
When the Nationals took Strasburg No. 1 overall in the 2009 draft, it would have been unfathomable to think they'd ever entertain the idea of trading him.
The hard-throwing righty achieved almost mythical status during his time at San Diego State University, and he entered the league as one of the most highly touted pitching prospects of all time.
Five years and one Tommy John surgery later, he is undoubtedly one of the most talented pitchers in the game, but he has yet to put it all together with the dominant season everyone has expected.
Strasburg finished ninth in NL Cy Young voting last season, with teammates Zimmermann and Fister finishing fifth and eighth, respectively. Scherzer, the 2013 AL Cy Young winner, was fifth in AL voting in 2014.
Here's a quick look at what the Nationals rotation would look like if they decided to stand pat:
If the Nationals do wind up trading Zimmermann, it would no doubt net them a sizable return, even with free agency coming for the right-hander next offseason. However, trading Strasburg with two years of team control left would likely net an even bigger package of young talent.
With that in mind, let's take a look at which teams could potentially make a run at the 26-year-old if he is in fact moved before the winter is over.
These teams were selected based on a mix of team need, previous reported interest in a blockbuster ace trade, players/prospects available & how close a team is to title contention:
By all accounts, the Red Sox appear to be happy with the current makeup of their starting rotation after adding Rick Porcello, Wade Miley and Justin Masterson to the mix this offseason.
"You never close your eyes to opportunities, but we’re not actively engaged in anything right now," general manager Ben Cherington told reporters in a late-December conference call. "We’d feel very good if we opened the season with the guys we have."
That's all well and good, but for a team that looked to be going all-in with the signings of Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, it's still hard to imagine it not adding a front-line starter before spring training begins.
Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe agreed:
For me it makes no sense to do all they’ve done — and they’ve done a lot with formidable lineup additions like Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez; three new pitchers in Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, and Justin Masterson, who are all good interior pieces – and not go after the ace.
A run at Cole Hamels has been the oft-mentioned potential move, as well as perhaps making a run at free agent James Shields, but Strasburg could be a better fit given his age.
The Red Sox certainly have the young talent to put together an attractive package, and considering the fact that the Nationals have no glaring needs at the big league level, their focus would likely be on acquiring high-end prospect talent.
A package built around Henry Owens would give the Nationals another terrific pitching prospect to pair with Lucas Giolito, as those two would conceivably makeup the future of the rotation.
From there, it would likely take at least one more marquee prospect piece. Twenty-year-old outfield prospect Manuel Margot could be just that for the Nationals, who may lose Denard Span next offseason and Jayson Werth following the 2017 season.
Second base prospect Sean Coyle is close to big league ready, and he could be a target if the Nationals lose Ian Desmond next offseason and the recently acquired Yunel Escobar slides over to the shortstop position.
Round things out with a low-level prospect with upside, such as right-hander Simon Mercedes, and that may be enough for the Nationals to pull the trigger on trading Strasburg.
St. Louis Cardinals
With Adam Wainwright undergoing offseason elbow surgery and Michael Wacha making just 19 starts last season while battling shoulder problems, the Cardinals are reportedly in the market for a front-line pitcher this offseason, according to Fox Sports' Rosenthal and Morosi:
The St. Louis Cardinals say they like their starting rotation. But that is not preventing them from pursuing a major upgrade.
The team is exploring trades for left-handers Cole Hamels and David Price and the possibility of signing free-agent right-hander Max Scherzer, according to major-league sources.
No deal appears close on any front, and it’s possible that the Cardinals will simply decide that the acquisition cost in each case is too high. However, the Cardinals’ interest in adding another starter reflects, at least in part, concern about their rotation beyond right-hander Lance Lynn.
This report emerged back on Jan. 7, prior to the Scherzer signing, but it's fair to assume Strasburg would also fit the bill of a "major upgrade" to the rotation.
The Cardinals have built their franchise into a perennial contender thanks to their ability to develop and retain in-house talent, so one has to wonder if they'd be willing to meet the hefty asking price it would take to land Strasburg.
They would almost certainly have to part with one of their top young starters in Carlos Martinez or Marco Gonzales, along with one of their big league-ready outfielders, Stephen Piscotty or Randal Grichuk.
They have other attractive low-level pitching prospects with upside in Rob Kaminsky, Alexander Reyes and 2014 first-round picks Jack Flaherty and Luke Weaver.
Throwing one of those arms alongside something like Gonzales and Piscotty would be a tough package to turn down on the Nationals side, but it could also be more talent than the Cardinals are willing to part with.
It's also worth considering that the Cardinals are one of the Nationals' biggest competitors for NL supremacy, so Washington may prefer moving Strasburg to an American League team accordingly.
Dark Horses
The Chicago Cubs certainly have the young talent to put together a trade package, and pairing Strasburg with Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta atop the rotation would give them a lethal trio of arms to lead their return to contention.
They've been understandably hesitant to part with any of their highly touted position-player talent, though, and they may prefer waiting until next offseason to make a run at signing someone like Zimmermann or David Price.
The Texas Rangers acquired Yovani Gallardo from the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday, per Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan, but the impending free agent is by no means a long-term answer in their rotation. Adding Strasburg could be a big step toward once again being one of the AL favorites.
Their farm system is loaded, and a package centered around pitcher Alex Gonzalez and outfielder Nick Williams would be a good start.
You can never count out the New York Yankees, though it would likely cost them top prospects Gary Sanchez and Luis Severino, and they likely won't want to gut a farm system they have finally built back up.
As always, some mystery team could also emerge out of nowhere, though only so many teams have the prospect talent to put together a good enough offer.
When it's all said and done, the Nationals may wind up holding onto all of their arms for an all-in run at a title in 2015. If they do wind up seriously shopping Strasburg, however, it will no doubt be for a substantial return.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
- Login to post comments