Here are some players that would help the San Francisco Giants win today and, for some, into the future.
8) Jack Wilson
Age 31
139 AB, .266 BA, 1 HR, 12 doubles
UZR/150 (’07-’09) = -0 .3, 16.7, 27.2
P/PA= 3.8, 3.64, 3.45, 3.44
My take: Wilson is a bit of a wildcard at the plate but he‘s tremendous on defense. It seems that, if he upped his pitch counts, he could dramatically improve his hitting statistics. On the other hand, he is 31 already and changing his game might be harder than it looks.
7) Nick Johnson or Russell Branyan
Nick Johnson
Age 30
.322, 5 HR, .422 OBP
UZR/150= -9.1,
57/86 (66%) career home runs hit to right field. Nine were hit to center. 20 were to left.
VORP=13.3
27 in MLB in BB/PA
Russell Branyan
Age 33
.318 BA, 13 HR, .420 OBP, .442 wOBA
VORP=26.2
BABIP = .398
P/PA= 3.80 in 2008, 4.17 in 2009
Branyan is an average first baseman on defense.
28 in MLB in BB/PA
wFB= 3.3 in ‘07, 7.2 in ‘08, 15.5 in ‘09
FB= 56.8% in ‘07, 59.1% in ‘08, 64.5% in ‘09
My take: Branyan is a much better short term option than Nick Johnson, especially considering that he’s better at defense. The batting average isn‘t quite for real but the on-base percentage and power definitely is. Branyan would help the Giants win now.
For comparison:
Travis Ishikawa
Age 25
UZR/150 = +26.9
VORP= -2.3
Ishikawa could turn into or already be the best defensive first baseman in all of baseball and the offense is coming around.
6) Adrian Beltre
Age 30
.246 BA, 4 HR, 14 doubles, .280 OBP, 6/8 SB
VORP = -2.8.\
UZR/150= 15.7 in 2008, 16.2 in 2009
Outside the zone swing percentage = 33.7%, 38.0%
Walk percentage = 8.3%, 3.7%
Zone contact percentage = 87.7%, 88.5%
My take: It’s still the same Beltre. He‘s just going a little swing crazy. His defense remains amazing and he has a similar strike zone contact percentage as last year. This could be a good buy low opportunity.
5) Michael Cuddyer or Jason Kubel
Cuddyer
Cuddyer’s right field defense has drastically improved this year. He went from about a negative five UZR to the league average.
Cuddyer is hitting .274 with a .357 on-base percentage. He has nine home runs and 11 doubles to go along with 33 RBI in 2009. Cuddyer ranks 53rd in MLB in BB/PA.
The Twins have Young, Span, Kubel, and Gomez in the outfield and are four games back of the Tigers in their division. Multiple position-playing defensive whiz Nick Punto (owed $6.5M) could be included in the deal also, though Punto hasn’t been providing much with the bat this year.
Jason Kubel, $7M, RF
.305 BA, 8 HR, 13 doubles, 1 triple, .358 OBP, .371 wOBA
P/PA (’07-’09)3.59, 3.72, 3.91
BABIP= .350 (career .307)
wSL= -5.3 in 2008, -0.7 in 2009
UZR/150 (’07-’09) = -22, -26, -30
My take: He’s hitting the slider better this year, but his offensive production probably won’t stay this great.
He is a defensive liability. Pass.
4) Hunter Pence
Age 26
.340 BA, 7 HR, 8 doubles, 4 triples, .415 OBP, 6/10 SB
VORP = 22.0
P/PA (’08, ’09) = 3.68, 3.86
Walk Rate: 6 .3% in ’08 to 12.6 % in ’09
Pence ranks 37th in MLB in terms of BB/PA
UZR/150= 9.8 in 2008, 0.6 in 2009
My take: Pence is arbitration eligible and is putting together a monster season. His right field defense is solid. The Giants could put Pence in right field and move Winn over to left.
It’s tough to think of a scenario that would get Pence in San Francisco. The Giants would either need to give up Alderson or Cain and I’m not sure if he’s worth that unless the Giants can lock him up long term.
3) J.J. Hardy and Mike Cameron
The Brew Crew has a good team and is competing for the playoffs, so I’m not sure if this would work, but these two guys would fit right in with the Giants.
Hardy (age 26) posted positive UZR/150‘s of 16.7 in ‘07, 8.5 in ‘08 and 15.4 this year. He is a very good defensive shortstop who can hit about .280 with 25 home runs. He is only hitting .228 this year but it could be due to a very low BABIP of .250.
Hardy ranks 75th in MLB in terms of BB/PA in 2009.
The Giants do have Bocock and Crawford in their minor league system and Renteria on the MLB team, but Hardy is a top notch Major Leaguer and a proven commodity.
The Brewers top prospect is a shortstop by the name of Alcides Escobar.
Cameron (age 36) is a master of center field on defense (UZR/150 of 19.2) and he has consistent 25 home run power. That is a very rare combination.
The Giants outfield defense would be one of the best in baseball with Aaron Rowand roaming one of the corners.
This could be a deal of the future, but it seems unlikely right now.
Other unlikely options at SS: Ryan Theriot and Jose Reyes
If the Cubs fall behind in the playoff hunt, they might want to shed some of that enormous payroll. The Giants might be able to swing a deal for a highly-paid pitcher and Theriot (a plus defender at SS and 2B).
With Wilmer Flores, the Mets have a nice SS prospect. Jose Reyes has been declining as a player even though he is still just in his mid-twenties. He may need a change of scenery and the Giants could use a leadoff hitter.
Reyes is owed $13 million between this year and next with an $11 million dollar club option for 2011. I‘d see if Reyes is on the table.
2) Alexei Ramirez
Age 27
.262, 5 HR, 5 doubles, .308 OBP, 9/11 SB
VORP = 3.4
UZR/150= -0.5 in ‘08, 2.5 in ‘09
Swing % = 59.9 in ‘08, 51.7 in ‘09
P/PA= 3.27 in ‘08, 3.76 in ‘09
My take: Buy, buy, buy. Chi-town has Beckham.
1) Aaron Hill and Alex Rios
Rios
.261 BA, 7 HR, 16 doubles, 2 triples, .320 OBP, 7/8 SB
VORP = 6.6
P/PA (’06–’09) = 3.90, 3.70, 3.75, 3.66
UZR/150 for CF+RF (’07-’09) = 9.2, 27.5,-3.7
BABIP = .302 (career .321)
Hill
.308 BA, 14 HR, 7 doubles, .344 OBP, .364 wOBA
VORP= 18.4
UZR /150= 24 .8 in ‘06, 5.3 in ’07, 10.7 in ’09
My Take: Though he hasn‘t shown it this year yet, Alex Rios plays a great right field and he has enough speed and range to play a solid center field as well.
He has a strong arm and 20/30 potential. He can post a .300 batting average and a .360 on base percentage.
Rios is owed roughly $50 million over the next four and a half years. Hill is owed $10 million until 2012.
Hill can also hit .300 and post an on-base percentage around .350. His second base defense is stellar.
Rios’ contract is lengthy and runs until 2014. The Giants could package some combination of Lewis, Burriss, Alderson, Cain, and Sanchez for the two.
Trading just for Rios or just Hill may also makes sense but the Giants shouldn’t give that much up for Rios because his contract is large and it runs until he’s 33.
Also, he’s having a slow year, though I think he’s turning it around. He had an incredible May, but his June is not so impressive. The numbers will be there at the end of the year.
Solid long + short term options: Cody Ross and Jeremy Hermida
In your dreams
Matt Holliday
Holliday is amazing on defense and he can hit with the best of them. He’s also worth two draft picks at season‘s end. The asking price would likely be too high for the Giants to afford; meaning Posey or Bumgarner.
If the Giants could get Baltimore on the phone for Adam Jones or Nick Markakis, then they would have to get their thinking caps on and consider trading the farm.
Two or more
The Giants will likely need to acquire at least two of the aforementioned players if they want to compete this year. However, if they are acquiring a long-term option, then it makes sense to trade for just one.
They shouldn’t do a deal for just a second baseman or just a first baseman though.
Nah
Players that the Giants could avoid because of defensive liabilities or them being less valuable than the players that the Giants already have
Mark Derosa
Age 34
2009: .267 BA, 10 HR, 11 doubles, .332 OBP
2B UZR/150= -15.9 in 2008
Overall LF UZR/150= -5.9
My take: He‘s not as good as Fred Lewis or Travis Ishikawa.
Brad Hawpe
Age 29
VORP 21.8
2009: .335 BA, 8 HR, 17 doubles, .407 OBP
Away: .279 BA, .364 OBP, 5 HR
UZR/150 (’06-’09) = -27.6, -42.2, -12.2
P/PA=3.97, 4.15, 4.11
Strike Zone contact percentage= 87.3 percent compared to his career rate of 80 percent.
His walk rate is down 2 percent.
My take: The offensive numbers won‘t last. His defense has improved but it‘s still bad and could get worse.
Not to mention, he hits in Coors half of the time and his away stats are mediocre.
Ryan Spilborghs—He‘s not as good as Lewis and he’s a year older.
Dan Uggla
.224 BA, 11 HR, 10 doubles, .349 OBP
VORP = 9.7
BABIP = .243
BB%= 12.7% in 2008, 15.5% in 2009
UZR/150: -11.3 in’07, +2.0 in ‘08, -15.2 in ‘09
My take: He’s doing everything right at the plate but is a victim of extreme unluckiness. His defense can be a liability.
The Giants should only take him if he’s very cheap. This is probably a pass if the Marlins want Sanchez (still a believer) or Cain.
Adam Dunn
Age 29
.261, 17 HR, 7 doubles, .398 OBP
4.3 0 P/PA in 2008, 4.40 P/PA in 2009
17.7 VORP
UZR/150= -28.3 in 2008, -28.7 in 2009
My take: All is well at the plate but the defense is terrible.
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