A red-hot Troy Tulowitzki fitting into a red-hot lineup is just what the Toronto Blue Jays had in mind when they traded for him last July.
Almost a year later, they're getting what they wished for.
The Blue Jays entered Thursday's contest against the Detroit Tigers at the Rogers Centre in search of their sixth straight win. It seemed prepared to elude them, as Detroit was clinging to a 4-3 lead with two outs in the bottom of the eighth. But then Tulo happened, delivering a two-run single to propel the Blue Jays to a 5-4 win.
That single was the second of Tulo's two hits on the day. With those in the bag, he's now hitting .328 in 17 games since coming off the disabled list. He also has seven bombs in that span and, if you're into such things, 20 RBI.
This is what a person who's bad at being original would call a complete 180.
Tulowitzki's batting average was under the Mendoza Line as recently as May 19, and he was hitting only .204 when a quad strain sent him to the DL. And over his first 373 (regular-season) plate appearances as a Blue Jay, he was hitting just .221 with a .685 OPS. After hitting .299 with an .885 OPS in parts of 10 seasons with the Colorado Rockies, the writing on the wall said the veteran shortstop was out of gas.
However, something happened while Tulo was out rehabbing his injury.
“I really think that I went down to Florida, it gave me a chance to work on my swing, get back to some good things that I did,” the 31-year-old told Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. “I think I’ve carried that over. When confidence comes, you start having some success. I’m really just trying to be myself. I think this is really who I am."
Tulowitzki got a big mechanical change out of the way earlier in the season, ditching a leg kick he had experimented with in spring training in favor of his usual toe tap. The difference since his return has more to do with his approach. It's gotten more aggressive, but without getting out of control:
Based on that first column, it's fair to say Tulo has come off the DL looking to swing his way out of his slump. Since it hasn't cost him any contact or walks, it's also fair to say it's working.
The most important change, though, is reflected in the way Tulowitzki lined Thursday's game-winning hit to the opposite field. Whereas his pre-DL Blue Jays self was trying to pull everything, his post-DL self is making an effort not to pull everything:
- Pre-DL: 52.1 Pull%
- Post-DL: 40.4 Pull%
The non-geeky summary: Tulo has snapped out of it and gone back to being a dangerous hitter. The fair warning based on the small sample size is that he probably won't stay this hot indefinitely. But if he can maintain a role as a productive member of the Blue Jays lineup, they'll take it.
After all, it's not like they need Tulo to carry their offense.
Remember when the Blue Jays offense made all other offenses look like little league chumps last year? That level of dominance had trouble carrying over into 2016. Toronto managed just a .709 OPS and four runs per game in April, hardly numbers befitting a supposed super-duper offense.
It's been a different story since then, and one that's getting more impressive by the day. The Blue Jays scored 4.3 runs per game in May, then 5.9 in June. Early in July, they're at 7.1 runs per game.
Tulo's role in this shouldn't be ignored, but neither should Josh Donaldson's and Edwin Encarnacion's.
Donaldson entered Thursday with a 1.234 OPS over his last 32 games, and two more hits against the Tigers upped his total OPS to 1.018. Nothing about that is an accident. As Dave Cameron of FanGraphs highlighted, the reigning American League MVP just keeps finding ways to get better.
Encarnacion has been hotter for even longer. He entered Thursday with a 1.110 OPS over 39 games dating back to late May. That's come complete with 13 home runs.
With the big boppers bopping like it's nobody's boppin' business, all the other guys have had to do is pull their weight. They've more than been up to the challenge. Michael Saunders has been hot all year. More recently, Russell Martin, Kevin Pillar and Devon Travis have added warm bats to the pile.
Arguably the scariest tidbit of all is who hasn't been involved in Toronto's surging offense. Jose Bautista has been out since June 16 with a bad toe. If he can come back and pick up where he left off (.815 OPS, 12 homers), the Blue Jays will pull off a baseball version of the rich getting richer.
In the immortal words of Dennis Green, these Blue Jays are who we thought they were.
They figured to resemble last year's team, which was really good at scoring runs and good enough at run prevention. They're only getting better at the former and just as good at the latter. After allowing 4.14 runs per game last year, this year's Blue Jays are allowing 4.18 runs per game.
What it means for now is a 49-39 record and quite a bit of momentum. They're only two games behind the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East, and the lead feels even smaller than that.
May the best birds win.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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