The high-powered Toronto Blue Jays lineup often looked less than high-powered through the club's first seven postseason games, and it was basically all Troy Tulowitzki's fault.
OK, fine. That statement is two things: a slight exaggeration and, thanks to more recent events, water under the bridge anyway.
After dropping the first two contests in Kansas City, the Blue Jays came back home and beat the Royals 11-8 in Game 3 of the American League Championship Series on Monday. The Blue Jays did their darndest to give the game away by spotting the Royals four runs in the ninth inning, but they were able to seal the deal to turn a commanding 2-0 series deficit into a less commanding 2-1 series deficit.
And if nothing else, Toronto's near-disaster in the ninth inning only makes Tulowitzki's heroics look more, well, heroic. MLB highlighted the win on Twitter:
The Blue Jays were clinging to a 3-2 lead that didn't feel entirely safe when Tulowitzki strolled to the plate with two men aboard in the third inning. And at that point, he was sitting on only five hits in 30 postseason at-bats, even after going 2-for-4 in Game 2 of the ALCS. He was thus either due for a big hit or due to continue struggling.
He chose door No. 1, launching a Johnny Cueto offering far over the center field wall for a three-run homer, sending the roughly 50,000 fans packed into Rogers Centre into a frenzy:
There would be more home team offense after that. That third inning also saw Kevin Pillar's RBI double and Josh Donaldson's two-run homer. And in the fifth inning, the Blue Jays got a Ryan Goins homer—he had a fantastic all-around game, by the way—and three innings later, Jose Bautista's RBI single.
All told, Game 3 brought just the kind of offensive outburst the Blue Jays needed after scoring a total of three runs in the first two games of the series. They needed to prove their offense was still alive, and they did that.
"We desperately needed that breakout," Blue Jays manager John Gibbons said after the game (via Gregor Chisholm and Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com). "You look at how the game finished up; those runs really came in handy. It wasn't an easy game, even though we had a big lead."
But with Tulowitzki evidently heating up, merely saying the Blue Jays offense proved it's still alive is putting it lightly. Assuming his bat can indeed be counted on again, Toronto's lineup now has that fear factor that it had been missing.
If you can think back to a couple of weeks ago, you'll recall that the Blue Jays offense was considered about as ominous as a moon-sized space station with a planet-destroying laser—and rightfully so.
The trio of Donaldson, Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion had combined to hit 120 home runs in the regular season, and the Blue Jays' .828 OPS in the second half was the best in MLB by a whopping 40 points.
Through their first seven postseason games, however, the Blue Jays' offense really was a disappointment. Toronto hitters combined for a .220 average and .667 OPS, numbers hardly befitting the most ominous thing in the known universe.
It wasn't all bad, mind you. Rather, it was really only bad outside of the heart of the Blue Jays order, which in the postseason has also included Chris Colabello. The figures looked like this:
- Donaldson/Bautista/Encarnacion/Colabello: .905 OPS, 6 HR
- Everyone else: .498 OPS, 2 HR
Of course, it's a given that the heart of any order is always going to produce more offense than the rest of a lineup. But that much more? That's sub-optimal, to say the least.
And for this, Tulowitzki bore his share of the blame.
Even after collecting a pair of hits in Game 2, Tulowitzki was still only hitting .138 with a .469 OPS in the postseason. In so doing, he was continuing a pattern of disappointment that also saw him post an OPS of just .697 in 41 games with the Blue Jays after notching an .818 mark in 87 games with the Colorado Rockies before the July trade.
Now, it would be one thing if Tulo's poor postseason could be chalked up to bad luck. But that wasn't the case. In addition to operating with a high 32.2 strikeout rate, Tulowitzki just wasn't making good contact. Per Baseball Savant, his average exit velocity had fallen from 89.7 mph in the regular season to 85.7 mph in the postseason.
As for what was going on with him, it was easy to point to the cracked shoulder blade that sidelined Tulowitzki toward the end of the regular season. He barely made it back in time for the postseason, and he didn't bother denying he was still feeling it.
“At this time of the year, everybody’s battling a little bit. Obviously, me coming back from my broken (shoulder), I’m not the same," he said after Game 2, per Tod Palmer of the Kansas City Star. "But at the same time, I’m trying to do whatever I can to help us win."
Beyond that, though, it often seemed like Tulowitzki didn't want to swing the bat. Baseball Savant says his swing rate dropped from a career-high 44.7 percent in the regular season to just 42.9 percent in the postseason.
And as Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports noted, there was one moment in Game 1 of the ALCS in which his passivity was particularly egregious:
This, however, points us to where Tulowitzki has changed things around in the last two games.
In collecting four hits in his last eight at-bats, Tulo has looked notably more aggressive. Game 2 saw him single on a 2-1 count and double on a 1-1 count. And on Monday night, he singled on a 1-1 count and homered on an 0-1 count. He hasn't been afraid to cut it loose, which suggests that either his shoulder is feeling better or—and this is more likely knowing that Tulo wasn't able to hide his pain at one point in Game 3—he's committed himself to not letting his injury hold him back.
Whatever the case, the only bad thing about Game 3 for Tulowitzki is that he didn't see the end of it, as he was ejected in the eighth inning for arguing balls and strikes. Apart from that, he stayed hot and made a major contribution to a win the Blue Jays needed to have. Not a bad way to save face.
And if he truly has things figured out at the dish, the Blue Jays have to like their chances of continuing their series comeback.
Beyond having two more home games to play with, their lineup looks about as dangerous as its reputation now that the heart of the order extends to Tulowitzki as well. To boot, Game 4 will see the Blue Jays send their lineup against a vulnerable starter in Chris Young who, thanks to Cueto's mere two-inning effort in Game 3, will not be backed up by a fully-loaded bullpen.
The Blue Jays aren't out of the woods yet. But at the least, they're on the right path.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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