It's already Week 7 of the 2015-16 MLB offseason, and Clayton Kershaw still needs a sidekick.
From figuring out who will be backing up baseball's nastiest starter at Dodger Stadium to trying to explain why so many prominent free-agent bats remain unsigned, there are all sorts of questions to ponder as 2016 inches ever closer.
There's room in this week's conversation for talk about whether one of the game's most underrated bullpen aces could be on the move. But first, let's get back to Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers' work-in-progress rotation.
Who Will Be the No. 2 Starter at Chavez Ravine?
The Jose Fernandez trade talk just won't go away.
And the Miami Marlins aren't exactly quashing the noise:
According to Jon Morosi of Fox Sports, the door remains slightly ajar when it comes to the Dodgers and Fernandez:
But based on the Marlins' staggering reported asking price, the key phrase is likely "no deal close." Back during the winter meetings, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com explained that the Fish wanted Julio Urias, Corey Seager, Joc Pederson and two more players in exchange for the electric Cuban.
For the Marlins, there's no harm in asking. But that's the kind of exorbitant demand that would lead Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman to hang up the phone and hang up fast.
Lyle Spencer of MLB.com suggested that Friedman should give Billy Beane a ring as he searches for that second ace:
Gray doesn't generate the same buzz as Fernandez, but the diminutive righty is a rising star in his own right. In 2015, the starter landed third in the American League Cy Young Award voting. And Beane, the Oakland Athletics' executive vice president of baseball operations, is in no rush to cash in on Gray.
“It’s a fair question,” Beane said, when asked by Joe Stiglich of CSN California about the topic of trading Gray. "And you could imagine how many people, at least early in the winter, were inquiring on him. We were pretty aggressively returning those calls and saying it wasn’t something we were gonna consider. That’s our stance now.”
So where could the Dodgers turn with Fernandez and Gray looking like virtual no-go's?
Jake Odorizzi is one guy to watch out for. Per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, Los Angeles has already checked in with the Tampa Bay Rays about the starter, who turns 26 in March.
Odorizzi doesn't have nearly the same national profile as Fernandez or even Gray, but there's still a lot to like about his arm. Last year, the starter was eighth in the AL with a 3.35 ERA. Thanks to his contract situation, he could also be a Dodger for the foreseeable future, as he remains under team control through the 2020 season.
The Answer: Odorizzi
What the Heck Is Going on with the Free-Agent Market for Bats?
The market for top-of-the-line position players has been moving about as fast as a glacier.
Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports provided the cold hard numbers: "Only two free-agent position players have signed multiyear contracts this offseason for more than $20 million guaranteed—outfielder Jason Heyward and infielder Ben Zobrist."
Surveying the remaining class of bats, here's the list of guys who should have already cleared that relatively low bar:
- Chris Davis
- Yoenis Cespedes
- Justin Upton
- Alex Gordon
Davis is the outlier here, as the masher could have already landed a new gig if he had wanted to. As Heyman noted, the Baltimore Orioles "pulled" a seven-year, $154 million offer after Crush Davis and his agent Scott Boras took too long thinking about it.
The slow play is classic Boras, as the super-agent is well-known for his strategy of waiting out the market before securing a megadeal seemingly out of nowhere at the last moment.
But when it comes to the nearly nonexistent market for Cespedes, Upton and Gordon, it's much more difficult to explain just what's going on.
Cespedes cracked 35 home runs last year, and so far he doesn't have a single reported offer.
Noah Syndergaard would like to see the New York Mets make an offer.
“Of course we’re hoping [that he'll be back],” Syndergaard said, per Dan Martin of the New York Post. “We all saw the tear he went on from July through the end of the season. We’d love to have that bat back in the lineup, so as long as he’s out there, we’re hoping for that.”
But Joel Sherman of the Post was quick to dash those hopes:
As long as Cespedes remains on the block, Upton could be in a bind. Like La Potencia, Upton is a slugger best suited for left field. But last year, Cespedes trumped Upton in WAR, average, slugging percentage, OPS, home runs and RBI, per FanGraphs.
And then there's Gordon. Unlike Cespedes and Upton, at least the longtime Kansas City Royal has drawn some concrete interest, per Heyman, from clubs like the Orioles, St. Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Angels and San Francisco Giants. Rosenthal also added the Chicago White Sox to that list.
That's a good start for Gordon.
The problem is that he's not just competing for a job with all those other corner guys on the free-agent front. He's also competing with star trade pieces like Carlos Gonzalez. According to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post, CarGo—he of 40 home runs in 2015—is available in a swap.
Simply put, the free-agent and trade marketplaces are flush with talent. And word in the industry is that there are more than a few clubs who have no interest in writing any big checks.
That's a bad look for the game, and even worse news for the players.
The Answer: Thanks in Part to Tanking, Supply is Exceeding Demand
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates Sell High on Mark Melancon?
Neal Huntington, the understated general manager of the Pittsburgh Pirates, never wins the offseason.
But the clubs that he constructs have a knack for racking up wins during the regular season, as the Bucs have tallied at least 88 Ws in each of the past three campaigns.
The trick is Huntington is always thinking one step ahead and making moves that keep the roster deep yet cost-controlled. With the unheralded Mark Melancon hanging in the trade winds, just such a move could be on tap for the National League Central squad.
"We've never had to trade Mark," Huntington said, per Adam Berry of MLB.com. "It's always been [a question of] if we're better with him with us, or if we think it's a better move for the organization to move him elsewhere, and that still applies."
That sounds like Huntington is daring rival execs to make him an offer he can't refuse.
And why shouldn't he? Melancon, who was eighth in Senior Circuit Cy Young voting in 2015, can become a free agent at the end of next season. The right-hander has put himself on track to score a monster haul next winter.
As a prime candidate to receive a qualifying offer, he's also all but certain to net the Pirates a compensation pick if he departs. Following that line of reasoning, it would be a shrewd business decision for the team to move Melancon now if the return would significantly beat the value of a comp pick.
The Answer: Not Unless the Pirates Get Overwhelmed
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com unless otherwise noted.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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