If the Washington Nationals are planning on extending the contract of first baseman Adam Dunn, they had better do it soon because it looks as though the period of contractual sanity is over.
Fearing that Dunn was going to become a free agent at the end of the year in 2008, the Cincinnati Reds traded their all-star slugger to Arizona for prospects. And fearing that Dunn would accept arbitration and the team would be stuck with his $15 million contract for 2009, the Diamondbacks declined arbitration, making Dunn was a free man.
He sat back in his easy chair and waited for his phone to ring. It never did.
Dunn and his agent fully expected to be offered several multi-year deals worth $50 million or more. But by February 2009, they had received no substantive offers and were forced to accept the Nationals’ bargain-basement offer of two years, $20 million. Dunn was willing to sign a three year deal, but the Nationals said no.
They assumed, as I did, that contract values would continue to decline until the economy rebounded, which could take several years. If they waited, perhaps they could sign Dunn—or someone like him—for even less money.
But just a year later, the players believe that their recession is over.
Matt Holliday has indicated he has no desire to resign with the St. Louis Cardinals and will become a free agent. His agent, Scott Boras, has said he expects “[Alfonso] Soriano-type money” for his client.
In the winter of 2006, Washington free agent Alfonso Soriano signed an eight year, $136 million contract with the Cubs. Three years later, Soriano, now 33, batted just .241-20-55 and Chicago is stuck with him through 2014.
Now, Boras usually asks for the moon, but he usually gets what he wants. No, Holliday isn’t getting $17 million a year, but he might come close.
If Holliday were the only slugger expecting to hit a Las Vegas-style jackpot this year, I’d call him an anomaly. But he’s not the only one.
Jason Bay, the low-key, high-octane outfielder for the Red Sox turned down Boston’s four-year contract that would have paid him $15 million per season. He too enters the jet stream that is the free agent market.
If Jason Bay thinks he’s worth more than $15 million per year, and Matt Holliday thinks he’s worth even more than that, what is Adam Dunn worth in this new market?
Let’s compare the three players' career averages:
BA—HR—RBI
Dunn: .250-40-101
Bay: .280-33-107
Holliday: .318-29-112
Runs Scored
Dunn: 100
Bay: 102
Holliday: 109
Doubles
Dunn: 29
Bay: 34
Holliday: 43
Triples
Dunn: 1
Bay: 4
Holliday: 5
Walks:
Dunn: 115
Bay: 86
Holliday: 61
Strikeouts
Dunn: 180
Bay: 157
Holliday: 115
OPS
Dunn: .903
Bay: .896
Holliday: .833
Clearly, there are some differences. Holliday provides a much higher batting average but is not as powerful. Dunn and Bay strike out far more often than Holliday. All three average more than 100 runs scored and more than 100 runs driven in.
A team would be no better with one of those players in their lineup as opposed to the other two. Defensively, Bay and Holliday are adequate while Dunn is a sub-par outfielder, but will become an adequate first baseman.
So, really, they all bring roughly the same amount of ability to a team. Sure, Holliday will get more base hits but Adam Dunn will hit more home runs.
Bill James has an abstract statistic called “runs created per game,” the number of runs a player produces for his team every 27 outs.
Holliday creates 7.8 runs per game, Dunn 7.5, and Bay 7.3.
So let’s assume that both Bay and Holliday get their $15 million contracts this winter. Where does that leave the Nationals and Adam Dunn?
If Dunn doesn’t get his extension and he reenters the free agent market next fall, he would likely earn at least $13 million, perhaps more. Remember, Dunn earned $13 million in his last season with the Reds, before the market collapsed.
Knowing this, Dunn wouldn’t agree to an extension for the same $10 million per year he’s earning now; it will probably take $12.5 million to get him to extend through 2012.
It was Adam Dunn who protected Ryan Zimmerman in the lineup, allowing him to have his career year in 2009. It was Adam Dunn whose long home runs gave the Nationals some badly needed national recognition. It was Adam Dunn who gave the Nationals their first household name.
Nothing the Nationals do this year or next will matter much if Adam Dunn plays just two years in Washington. No longer can the team be sellers; they must continue to sign new players while retaining their own.
Can you imagine the outcry if the Nationals win 75 or 85 games in 2010 only to lose Dunn to free agency? No free agent signing could salve that wound.
Ryan Zimmerman notwithstanding, Adam Dunn is the linchpin of the Washington Nationals. Without him, stories written about the team in the coming years would be about what could have been if the Nationals had only been able to resign the team’s modern-day Frank Howard.
It won’t be pretty, that’s for sure.
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