In the past few days, the Washington Nationals have made several roster moves that, in and of themselves, don't make the team that much better.
What they do show, however, is that the new management team, led by de-facto general manager Mike Rizzo, believes the Nationals are going to be much better this year than any of us believed.
The biggest move came this morning as the Nationals released Shawn Hill, as talented as any pitcher on the Nationals' 40-man roster.
Hill, a holdover from the team's days in Montreal, has been counted on since 2005 to lead the team's starting rotation. Since then, though, he's been healthy for just a few weeks, early in the 2007 season.
He looked great in spring training that year. In five starts, Hill went 1-0, with a 0.93 ERA, giving up just 16 hits in 19 innings. He outperformed every other pitcher and went into opening day as the Nationals' No. 2 starter.
He looked even better when the season started.
In 11 starts, Hill went 3-2, with a 2.22 ERA. In 65 innings, he allowed just 45 hits and had a 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Opponents hit just .190 against him and managed a meager .260 on-base percentage and a paltry .292 slugging percentage.
Hill averaged less than 3.5 pitches per batter, and 65 percent of those pitches were strikes.
His 3.42 ERA was 12th best in the National League and it led all Nationals’ pitchers. His 11 quality starts also led the Nationals and his 69 percent quality start percentage was eighth best in the National League.
But wait, there’s more!
He allowed two runs or less in 14 of his 16 starts and Hill’s .235 opponent’s batting average was seventh best in the National League. His 2:1 groundball-to-flyball ratio, which gave his fielders more opportunities to make outs, was the league’s sixth best.
That's why Manny Acta hoped for, but wasn't counting on, a healthy Shawn Hill this spring. And though he's continued to have forearm issues, he's pitched well, allowing just one hit in two innings.
And now all that talent and risk is gone, available to any other team willing to take a chance that he'll eventually get healthy.
Unlike John Patterson, who was released by the Nationals last spring after a similar injury plagued career, Hill's injuries haven't robbed him of his ability to pitch well when healthy. Patterson's fastball had lost four to six miles per hour and he wasn't able to get major league hitters out.
If Shawn Hill can throw the ball without pain, he is still very effective.
But have the Nationals rid themselves of Hill, or is this just a administrative move that doesn't change much? Wednesday was the last day that a team could release a player and only have to pay 1/6th of their salary. Perhaps this was a cost-cutting move.
And since Hill was out of options, the Naitonals couldn't have sent him to the minors to continue re-habbing his forearm. Maybe the Nationals are going to resign Hill to a minor league contract with the understanding that he will be in the team's rotation if he ever gets healthy.
It's too early to say.
In other moves, Mike Rizzo has signed three veterans who will (hopefully) shore up the team's bullpen. Just days after signing Kip Wells, the Nationals signed Julian Tavarez and today inked former Dodger Joe Beimel to a one-year, $2 million contract.
Wells, 31, averaged 11 wins per season as a starter from 2001-2004, but hasn't pitched particularly well since. Randy St. Claire believes he can "clean up" his delivery and make him a quality spot-starter/reliever.
Taverez, 36, has been an average major league reliever but pitched well for the Braves last year, going 1-3, with a 3.89 ERA with 35 strikeouts in 34 innings.
Without question, the best of the three is Beimel, 31, who has been the Dodgers'eighth inning specialist for the past three seasons. Last year, the 6'2" lefty went 5-1, posting a 2.02 ERA in 50 innings. Since 2006, Beimel has a record of 11-4, with a 3.03 ERA.
So the Nationals have decided not to keep Shawn Hill and hope for the best, and they have decided that they weren't going to trust the bullpen to players who were young and might, or might not succeed in 2009.
What does it all mean?
It means that the Rizzo and the Washington Nationals believe that the upcoming season could be that breakthrough year they, and us, have been waiting for since the team moved to Washington in 2005.
The Nationals don't want to begin the season with question marks in the rotation and in the bullpen, hoping that players like Shawn Hill and those kids in the bullpen would have a successful season.
And that's a great sign.
There is no doubt that 80 percent of the rotation (John Lannan, Scott Olsen, Daniel Cabrera, and Jordan Zimmermann) is solid, and there is little doubt that at least some of the Nationals' young hitters (Jesus Flores, Ryan Zimmerman, Lastings Milledge, and Elijah Dukes) will have breakout years in 2009.
A solid bullpen and one more professional arm might make the difference between a 75 win and an 85 win season this year.
I think that the release of Shawn Hill indicates that GM Mike Rizzo is getting ready to trade some of the Nationals' surplus of outfielders (and maybe one pitching prospect like Colin Balester or Shairon Martis) for a young starter with a proven track record, someone similar to Scott Olsen.
Be prepared for a major trade coming soon. I think Stan Kasten and Mike Rizzo see how close the Nationals are to being good and are willing to spend some money and take some chances to make it happen.
And I love it.
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