If you think the Atlanta Braves did well in the Jason Heyward trade, just wait until you see how they do in the Justin Upton trade.
Or so they hope, anyway.
Though the Braves no longer have a surplus of outfielders after dealing Heyward to the St. Louis Cardinals, word is they're shopping Upton anyway. A rival executive even went so far as to tell Joel Sherman of the New York Post: “Justin Upton will be moved.”
This is apparently because they think their 27-year-old left fielder can net an impressive return.
"The Braves are very much shopping Justin Upton and are requesting a higher return than they received earlier this week when they dealt their other corner outfielder, Jason Heyward."
The key words are "a higher return." In light of what the Braves got for Heyward, that's saying something.
For the 25-year-old right fielder and hard-throwing reliever Jordan Walden, the Braves snagged right-handed starter Shelby Miller and pitching prospect Tyrell Jenkins. Like that, the Braves landed a solid mix of talent and controllability.
Though Miller comes to Atlanta with things to work out, he also comes with good stuff, a 3.41 ERA in two seasons as a full-time starter and four years of club control. Factor in the six years of club control Jenkins will have if/when he reaches the majors, and the Braves turned one year of the free-agent-to-be Heyward and two years of Walden into 10 years of pitching.
Of course, we don't know how the inclusion of Walden altered the deal. But if it's a fair guess that the trade was Heyward for Miller straight up with Walden and Jenkins as deal-sweeteners, then an Upton deal would have to net a player with more talent and/or more controllability than Miller has.
That, indeed, is asking a lot. So let's get to the big question: Is Upton worth that much?
One thing that's convenient is that, like Heyward, Upton also only has one year to go before free agency. We're not weighing two or three years of his services against one year of Heyward's.
But we do know that Upton is a couple of years older than Heyward. We also know he's going to cost more in 2015. Where Heyward is owed $8.3 million, Upton is owed a little over $14.5 million. That's a $6 million difference, which is not small.
Which makes the big question a simple question: Is Upton that much better than Heyward?
Let's start with a look at what the two have done over the last two seasons, a sample size that includes only Upton's time with the Braves and neither his nor Heyward's best seasons.
All will be explained, but for now just note that this is enough to get a sense of how talented they are as offensive and defensive contributors, courtesy of FanGraphs:
One's eyes drift to the WAR column, which is convincing that Heyward has been the better player over the last two seasons. This despite the fact he missed a good chunk of action in 2013 with freak injuries—an appendectomy and a beanball to the face—which makes it even more impressive.
The main reason why is easy to spot. The "Def" column is for defensive value, and it's no surprise to see Heyward way ahead of Upton. He's probably not that bad, but Heyward really is that good.
But since this defensive component is based off defensive metrics, it can't be taken as gospel. The question of whether Heyward's defensive edge makes up for Upton's clear offensive edge is worth asking.
To this end, Upton's offensive edge is mainly a power-oriented edge, as he's slugged more homers and racked up a notably higher slugging percentage than Heyward. But his baserunning has also been a factor, as "BsR" (baserunning runs) favors him, despite Heyward's lead in stolen bases.
But at the same time, it's a stretch to say that Upton has a massive offensive edge over Heyward.
Heyward's average and OBP say he's been right there with Upton from a consistency perspective. That's not a small deal, and one can also get picky and argue that Heyward's baserunning is better than his 2013-2014 BsR indicates. He's been easily Atlanta's top baserunner since 2011, per FanGraphs.
All told, it comes down to this: The one thing Upton really has on Heyward is a power advantage. And while it's big, it's not quite big enough to overrule Heyward's huge advantage as a defensive player.
So I agree with Dave Cameron of FanGraphs that Upton shouldn't be worth more than Heyward in a trade, as that would mean paying a bigger price for an older, more expensive and not clearly better player.
However, Cameron may be onto something with this:
"If the Braves can turn Justin Upton into another version of the Shelby Miller package, they should be pretty happy about it."
In other words, maybe the Braves can turn Upton's seemingly lesser trade value into an equal trade package. It sounds counterintuitive, but it could definitely happen.
Here's a hint why:
You just witnessed Upton's raw power. It's huge. Huger, even, than his power production indicates.
And that it comes from the right side of the plate is the kicker.
The lack of right-handed power in today's MLB has been referenced so much at this point that it's not really a dirty little secret anymore. And it's not overblown, either. The number of righty hitters with at least 25 homers dropped dramatically in 2013 and fell to its lowest point in 20 years in 2014.
Upton's brand of power is thus a rare brand of power. And while there's some potential 25-homer right-handed power available on the open market, it comes with strings attached:
- Nelson Cruz: He hit 40 bombs in 2014, but he's headed for his age-34 season and is an inferior hitter, baserunner and defender next to Upton.
- Hanley Ramirez: He owns a .500 career slugging percentage but is headed for his age-31 season and is a lesser defender and more injury-prone than Upton.
- Yasmany Tomas: Ben Badler of Baseball America says the Cuban slugger has "70 raw power," but he's obviously unproven and also comes with hit-tool and defense question marks.
None of these guys are going to come cheap, either. It's easy to imagine Cruz costing as much as $50 million, and Ramirez and Tomas could go for as much as $100 million.
Point being: If a team is looking for a right-handed power hitter, it makes sense to spring for Upton than for one of the free agents who can offer it.
Another thing worth mentioning as something that could force a team's hand with Upton: I'll wager he gives off more of a final-puzzle-piece vibe than Heyward does.
Whereas Heyward can strengthen a defense and deepen a lineup, Upton can complete a lineup without hurting a defense. That may not be as valuable on paper, but it's something that could push a team from "World Series contender" to "World Series favorite."
The argument that Upton isn't as good as Heyward is sound. Take that and combine it with his age and more expensive 2015 salary, and his trade value shouldn't be as high for the Braves as Heyward's was.
But if the Braves trade Upton, it would not be surprising if they got a package roughly equivalent to the one they got for Heyward. Though it would technically be an overpay, it would be the rare smart overpay.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.
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