In part one; we took a look at Harden and Gregg, and the possibilities that face the Cubs. Now, as we take a look a bit farther down the road, the choices show themselves to be a bit more complicated.
Shortly after the Cubs have to deal with the future of Harden and Gregg, they will have to face what choices to make with Derrick Lee and Ted Lilly—like I said, a bit more complicated.
The Cubs already exist in a very competitive division that is only going to get better with time; this means their level of play must stay on par for a long time lest they be relegated to having tea and crumpets with the Pirates and Astros reminiscing about better days.
The first issue is Lee.
The Cubs definitely got their money’s worth out of Lee, and I can only think Florida is ruing the day they let him go for Hee Seop Choi. But what made things better for the Cubs, was the fact they actually realized his potential, and considering they also saw him as a reason to get rid of Sosa (good move there), the match was perfect.
If you compare his career as a Marlin vs. his career as a Cub (current performance included here) you’ll see for yourself.
As a Marlin, Lee posted: 422 R, 746 H, 129 HR, 417 RBI, and 51 SB. He also had a 734:363 SO:BB ratio with a .264 avg. in 2830 AB.
As a Cub, Lee posted 453 R, 837 H, 139 HR, 442RBI, 49 SB. He additionally posted an improved SO:BB ratio— 553:345 with a .302 avg.
All around improvement = great investment.
But with all investments, there comes a time where one has to decide whether to sell or not despite performance.
Lee is in his 13thyear and is 34 years young. The Cubs, however, may look at this as an investment worthy of selling high if they can get more production out of heir apparent Hoffpauir; a move they could regret in the end. Lee’s hot and cold spells over the past two years could factor in the decision as well.
Hoffpauir is, and has always been, strikeout prone even in his seven years in the minors. In addition, I can’t see Hoffpauir being a two time All-Star, a two time Golden Glover, a Silver Slugger, and a two time candidate for MVP.
In the end, the Cubs would be wise to consider a small extension to Lee’s contract to play things safe. The free agent market at the time will feature names like Berkman, Konerko, Overbay, Pena (Carlos), and Pujols. So if they would entertain any of these fellas, one would think they would just hold onto what they have since it is a no-brainer.
There, not so bad right? Now onto issue number two—Ted Lilly.
First and foremost, Lilly should stay no question.
A year after Lilly’s contract is up goes Dempster, and a year after that goes Zambrano. I don’t see Dempster lasting, and if Big-Z is serious about retiring then it would only make sense to hold onto Lilly.
Currently, Lilly is having his best year yet. He is 7-4 with a .3.04 ERA, a 1.058 WHIP, and a eye opening 75:20 K:BB ratio.
In comparison, his entire career in the AL which included time with the Yankees, the A’s, and the Blue Jays afforded him a 59-58 record with a 4.60 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP and a 799:382 K:BB ratio.
His time in Chicago to date has produced a 39-21 record with a 3.79 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP and an astounding 433:139 K:BB ratio.
Again, all around improvement = great investment.
Lilly is 12 years in and 33 years of age.
When free agent comes round, the names that will be available are Beckett, Halladay, Lee, Millwood, Harang, and Cain. Halladay is the ONLY guy here too have comparable stats career wise to Lilly, and Beckett has a club option attached to him which will probably keep him in Boston. Lee could be an option but I doubt it.
It just simply makes sense to keep Lilly in Chicago. He produces every year. He has bettered himself since being here, and I think he will continue to do so. Dempster will be gone and Zambrano could be gone, and let’s not talk about the newest news of the Cubs being interested in Pedro Martinez.
The club will need a veteran there to lead the young arms that will inevitably be taking over the helm in the next couple of years; Lilly is a fantastic candidate.
As we approach the next five years a couple of things are for certain:
1. The division is only going to get harder.
2. We have a lot of decisions to make.
3. The choices we make with these four players will have an impact on the future, which means we need to think things through very thoroughly; something that seems to escape the Cubbies front office.
Hopefully, we’ll make the right choices going forward and reap the benefits.
Thanks everyone for reading, and I hope you have enjoyed. Now let me know what you guys think!
I will be gone for a couple of days so please guys, keep the debate going. I will respond to all of your comments this weekend
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