As the 2009 season progresses, there are plenty of issues on the minds of not only the Cubs organization, but also Cubs fans alike.
The high-powered offense of last year—the same offense that was supposed to thrust the team into this year—has been eerily quiet. The talented pitching rotation that made so many strides last year has been marginally acceptable this year, and the bullpen that was touted as one of the best a year ago has yet to separate itself from the average.
As we enter the realm of free agency for this year and next, there are some hard, and not so hard, choices the Cubs will be faced with in terms of players: Rich Harden and Kevin Gregg in '09, Derrick Lee and Ted Lilly in 2010.
Gregg and Harden are first on the list.
Gregg was a very expensive replacement for Kerry Wood at $4.2 million, but he was never intended to be a permanent one. This year, Gregg has struggled with his command and has developed an apparent penchant for hanging pitches over the plate—not a good thing for a closer.
Considering there really isn’t anyone in the free agency pool who would be a better acquisition (or at least anyone not considering retirement), the Cubs will have to decide whether or not to keep Gregg around. David Aardsma was listed as a free agent at the time of this article, but he will more than likely be re-signed by Seattle.
Carlos Marmol is not the answer for a better closer, either. Remember earlier this year, when he was miffed over not being named the closer? Now, Marmol is lucky if he can get two consecutive pitches anywhere near the strike zone. For Marmol to be considered a candidate again, he will literally have to do a complete 180 and convince the staff he can keep it up throughout the year.
Enter in Angel Guzman and Aaron Heilman.
Guzman thus far is posting a 2-1 record while holding a 2.53 ERA with a single save under his belt. He is also enjoying a 27:11 strikeout-to-walk ratio, but, in order to move up in the bullpen, he will have to do a bit better than that.
Heilman, who has also been used in the closer position, isn’t giving the Cubs anything to hold onto. He is running with a 4.06 ERA, zero saves, and a 25:21 K:BB ratio. It is now obvious that the Cubs were looking at his career averages, and totals, with the Mets, thinking he would’ve added something to the 'pen, like...oh, I don’t know, a reliable arm?
From ’03 to ’08, Heilman averaged out with a 2.53 ERA, nine saves, and a 65:30 K:BB ratio as a Met. He is nowhere near those types of numbers in Chicago.
The Cubs have other arms in David Patton, Sean Marshall, and Jeff Samardzija.
Patton is still developing, though he did have a nice spring, and it remains unclear what the Cubs will do with him. Marshall has done time as a starter, long reliever, and late-inning arm, but nothing substantial enough for him to secure a solid position.
Samardzija is a candidate for a future starter position, but he needs to develop something other than his wicked fastball. He has shown success here and there with the changeup and a possible slider as his out pitch, but he needs to work a lot more on developing reliable options. It will come, just not anytime soon.
The end result is that it would probably be best to keep Gregg, but at what cost? He isn’t the closer of the future, but neither is anyone else in the 'pen. In an idealistic and make-believe world, David Aardsma will be available, and we will do the smart thing and pick him up and enjoy happy days at the closer position.
It could happen, right?
Rich Harden isn’t any easier.
On the one hand, you have a guy who has a plethora of talent and the world ahead of him; on the other, you have a guy who has a laundry list of injuries.
The FA pool isn’t all that exciting in terms of starters, and considering Samardzija is up and coming, cutting ties with Harden may be on the horizon. Personally, I would hate to see him go, but if the rest of the year shows more injuries, then it would be necessary to say the least.
Aside from needing to show he is healthy, Harden must gain better command on the mound if the Cubs are to consider bringing him back; throwing an average of seven strikes per game doesn’t mean much if you’ve also allowed 11 homers and 51 hits.
My gut feeling is he will not be brought back.
So, with all things considered, where do the Cubs faithful stand? Make your voice heard and speak out! What do you want to see happen in FA this year? What should the organization do with these players mentioned; who gets to stay and who should go?
In Pt. 2, we will discuss 2010 and the future of Lee and Lilly.
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