A whisper leaked out of Arizona on Wednesday that Chicago Cubs' left-hander Ted Lilly underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery on Tuesday and isn't expected to return until April.
Great. [Collective sigh from Chicago's North Side.]
Here we go again.
So how does the knowledge that Lilly's now expected to likely miss the first month of the season impact the Cubs as they approach this important winter?
Let's examine a few scenarios.
The first issue that arises is, obviously, Lilly missing starts. You can now assume Lilly's only going to be good for around 25 starts in 2010, which eliminates a lot of imagination from the Cubs pitching staff. First off, any garbage about a four-man rotation shouldn't even be mentioned, because that does not exist in baseball today. But the impact might force the Cubs to think about as many as six starters in April.
Lilly is the rock of the Cubs's staff, throwing 21 quality starts last year. Taking him out of the mix early, and the left-handed arm at the top of the rotation, will undoubtedly change the organization's view of in-house lefties Tom Gorzelanny, Sean Marshall, and, if/when he signs, John Grabow.
Lilly's absence until May will make the Cubs jump quickly to get Grabow back in the fold. Without him, the Cubs might be stuck with only Marshall as a left-handed arm in the pen without a choice. Whether or not Grabow's worth the money the Cubs are going to apparently pay him is another discussion for another place. But this puts some fire under the smoke of Grabow's attraction to Jim Hendry.
This could go a long way in determining how and where the Cubs spend their efforts this winter on a number of other front. Just a matter of two days ago, the public's perception of Hendry's Christmas List was that the lead domino was to unload Milton Bradley.
Now, it appears Lilly's surgery has already put some wheels in motion.
Could this lead the Cubs to at least entertain the idea of exchanging Bradley's cancerous personality and ridiculous contract for Seattle's underwhelming Carlos Silva?
Silva stands to make $11.5 million each of the next two years, comparable to Bradley's contract, but includes a mutual option for $12 million for the 2012 season. Because the Cubs had three veteran starters coming back with Randy Wells next year, many onlookers believed the fifth starter spot would be Gorzelanny's to lose.
The strength of the Cubs returning rotation also led to Silva's exclusion from much of the trade scenario daydreaming from those of us that don't think Bradley's back in Chicago next year. But the potential loss of Lilly for longer than a month could put Silva on the Cubs' radar.
Another option would be the Cubs making a stronger play in free agency this winter for a top-of-the-rotation starter. Some analysts (like me) have postulated that the Cubs should make a play for a top tier starter like John Lackey .
This winter's free agent class isn't that deep, so the decisions will have to be made while considering the Cubs' draft picks as well. Do the Cubs now at least offer arbitration to Rich Harden? And do they make an offer to a Type A free agent like Randy Wolf? Does Kelvim Escobar excite anyone?
This news certainly doesn't help the new ownership begin their tenure at Wrigley Field on a positive note. If they were planning on increasing payroll by a small amount, this week's discussions might be around what "small" means and how far Hendry can stretch that "small" to get this team competitive out of the gate.
The long term implications of this news could be the opposite of the potential ramifications this winter. If the Cubs cannot or do not address their depth in the rotation this winter, and come out of the gates as flat as they did in 2009, there might be an implosion this July.
If the Cubs struggle to compete through the Fourth of July, you might begin hearing serious trade rumors including Lilly and Derrek Lee. Last year, Hendry didn't want to part ways with Harden or Aaron Heilman because of a stretch run. That obviously failed.
This summer, with rumors swirling that his job is on the line, Hendry might be more proactive to build a winner in the future than watch the Titanic sink like he did this past summer.
There already were dozens of dominoes in play for the Cubs this winter, and this throws fans a curveball of which Lilly's healthy shoulder would have been proud.
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