Sky Kalkman of Beyond the Boxscore wrote a great article this week covering the major league teams and their optimal lineups and what he had to say about the Yankees was very interesting.
First he ranked the Yankee hitters in terms of how much they add to the lineup. To do that he penciled Nick Swisher in right over Xavier Nady, handed Brett Gardner the starting center field job, and ignored the fact that Alex Rodriguez could miss upwards of two months.
His rankings then looked something like this: Arod, Mark Teixeira, Swisher, Hideki Matsui, Jorge Posada, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Johnny Damon, and Brett Gardner.
Based off those rankings he decided the optimal Yankees lineup looks something like this:
- Jeter
- Teixeira
- Swisher
- ARod
- Matsui
- Posada
- Damon
- Cano
- Gardner
This was his final evaluation of how he came to that decision:
“Remember, batting orders are a bit overrated. But in order to squeak out that one extra win (which costs $4.5M on the free agent market and is worth perhaps 10% in playoff probability for a team in contention), filling out lineup cards based on the above thought process is a smart move. To really make the tough decisions, heuristics aren’t enough — a simulation is the way to go. And when you’re talking about a tenth of a win, keeping hitters happy is probably the more important consideration.
To optimize the lineup, put your three best hitters in spots #1, #2, and #4, with #1 favoring low-HR, high-OBP players, #2 favoring high-OBP players, and #4 favoring high-SLG players. Then put your next two best hitters in spots #5 and #3, with the better hitter going #3 only if he derives significantly more of his value from HRs and isn’t that much better than the other option. Then fill your #6 through #9 spots in decreasing order of talent, with consideration given to handedness, baserunning, and contact vs. power hitters when players are close in hitting ability. Put good baserunners ahead of contact hitters and power hitters behind players who can’t advance themselves.”
I tend to agree with evaluations like this and probably the only reason why teams haven’t started paying attention to statistical analysis’ like these are because of old school thinking. In his book, The Yankee Years, Joe Torre even scoffed at such a recommendation coming down from Brian Cashman even though teams like the Athletics and Red Sox have done something similar with positive results.
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