Where Will Jason Bay End Up?

With the 2009 free agent market beginning to turn the corner, names are being erased off the chalkboard and only a few big players remain. One week ago when the GM Meetings were taking place, we didn’t see too many signings, only trade rumors.

To start the week off, Phillies fans received a nice little Christmas gift from the Toronto Blue Jays. After being strongly connected to trade rumors involving SP Roy Halladay since June, the Phillies finally set the deal in stone and acquired Halladay.

Unfortunately the Phillies had to send SP Cliff Lee to the Mariners for financial reasons, but many agree that Roy Halladay is the better fit. The deal has yet to be finalized, but it will get done this week and send Doc to Philadelphia under a three-year extension worth about $60 illion.

More big news came over the wire on Monday when we learned free agent pitcher John Lackey agreed to a five-year contract worth $82.5 million, and will be joining the Boston Red Sox.

Lackey gets his big deal and at the price most people expected. So suddenly the pitching Market has dropped to Marquis and Pineiro and the big names still out there are Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, both power-hitting Left Fielders who will certainly be receiving five to seven year contracts worth roughly $17-20M per season.

So exactly where will Jason Bay end up? We’ll begin by retracing our steps to the Red Sox’s offer to Bay about a month ago. The Red Sox reportedly offered Bay a four-year contract worth $60 million, which he quickly rejected.

Bay, a former Pirate and HR Derby contestant, is reportedly seeking a five-year contract that will provide him with the financial security he needs. Bay was a destructive force for the Red Sox this year, hitting 36 home runs and 119 RBIs while batting average of .267. While Bay lacks the consistent average, he has tremendous pull-power that would suit well in a stadium like Citi Field.

That brings me to my first destination for Bay. With the Red Sox now committed to Mike Cameron (two years, $15.5M) and John Lackey, money would be tight for the Sox. Cameron will most likely platoon in LF with recently acquired Jeremy Hermida, so Bay is an unlikely candidate to return to Boston.

The Mets, however, topped the Sox’ offer with a four-year deal worth approximately $65 million last week and remain the guaranteed front-runner. I say “guaranteed” because we have no idea who offered Bay this so-called five-year deal. While Bay has yet to make a decision, some people believe the Mets would be willing to commit to a fifth year vesting option, but are undecided as to whether or not to guarantee that fifth year.

The Mets’ contracts are typically, well, strange. GM Omar Minaya likes to back-load his contracts. Back-loading for those of you unfamiliar with the term, is when the majority of the contract is put in the final years of the contract.

So for example, the first year of the contract would be $12M and the final year would be in the area of $20M. The club has done it before, in their contract with Carlos Beltran for example. It’s a great strategy because of a new stadium, a still fairly new TV Station (SNY), the Mets would probably be more wealthy towards the end of Bay’s contract.

In my opinion, the Mets have to make a deal for Bay or Holliday and they got to do it in the next 10 days. With the Phillies acquiring Halladay and Lackey (the Mets’ fall-back plan should they not sign Bay) signed with the Red Sox, the Mets have to guarantee that fifth year and lock in Bay.

Bay is probably a better option. His pull-hitting style is more suitable for Citi Field and he has proven his power in an American League system. He also comes at fewer years in a contract, and also a shorter salary. It seems like a solid plan, the team just has to make the commitment. The team does expect a response from Bay and his agent this week.

Another option for Bay could be the San Francisco Giants. Some people have hinted that the Giants may have been the mystery team to offer Jason Bay the five-year contract, although the reports regarding the “mystery offer” don’t confirm that fifth year is guaranteed.

With the Mets in a larger market and in desperate need of avoiding a riot, they should be able to and probably will out-bid. It should also be noted that Jason Bay has made it clear he does not want to play for the Giants.

One more option could very well be the Angels. The Angels were in the sweepstakes for Roy Halladay and felt they had the talent to reel him in, but it appeared Halladay didn’t want to play for them. So now they are faced with a big issue.

In the last two years they have lost Chone Figgins, Francisco Rodriguez, Vladimir Guerrero, and John Lackey to Free Agency, although I should note Guerrero hasn’t signed with a team yet. Despite signing free agent Hideki Matsui, expect the Angels to make a strong push for Bay and Holliday, preferably Bay who will come at a more affordable price with better power, although less contact than Holliday.

The Mariners could be a potential suitor for Bay, but the issue is financially. They take on an average but still large contract in Lee’s and might want to consider resigning Lee. The Mariners are also stuck in negotiations with ace Felix Hernandez and are likely to resign him to a long and hefty contract extension.

Those are most likely the top four options for Bay. The New York Mets, Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants, and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are the most likely destinations for Bay. They have expressed interest, and time is running out. It may come down to a bidding war, but expect Bay to get the five-year deal he wants and on a big, playoff-contending team.

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