It's here, it's finally here!
After weeks, if not months, of talking about teams gearing up and preparing for the stretch run, the last leg of the MLB regular season is officially upon us. While some teams have one eye on 2016 and the other on the chance to play spoiler, the bulk of baseball remains within shouting distance of the playoffs.
But as we're about to learn, all stretch runs aren't created equal when it comes to contenders.
There's plenty to be taken into consideration when determining which contenders have the easiest and hardest stretch-run schedules, but we'll focus on three main things here:
- Number of remaining home games
- Number of remaining games against contenders
- Record against remaining opponents
But even then, things aren't as simple as they seem. Take the Cleveland Indians, for example.
Of the team's 29 remaining games, 21 will be played at home and only 14 come against fellow contenders. That would appear to give the Tribe an easy stretch-run schedule, right? Wrong, for the Indians have gone 19-33 against their remaining competition this season.
Spoiler alert: Cleveland didn't make the cut. Who did?
Let's take a look.
Toughest Stretch-Run Schedules
A brutal second-half schedule only gets tougher for Baltimore. Not only do the Orioles have to take on more contending teams down the stretch than anyone else, but 17 of their remaining 28 games come away from Camden Yards.
That's really bad news for a team that's gone 26-42 (.382 winning percentage) on the road, though there is a bright spot—sort of. Baltimore plays 10 of those away games over an 11-day span that begins Sept. 17, making stops in Tampa Bay, Washington and Boston, teams they've gone a combined 17-13 against.
While it certainly offers a chance for the O's to get on a mid-September roll—and taking four from the Rays would get them past one of the teams ahead of them in the standings—it may not be enough to propel Baltimore past the rest of the field.
I wouldn't go so far as to call Houston's remaining schedule a problem—the Astros do own a winning record against their remaining opponents, after all—but they're going to face a stiff challenge from not one, but two teams for AL West supremacy down the stretch.
The good news for the Astros is that they have 13 games left against Los Angeles (six) and Texas (seven), with each team paying a visit to Minute Maid Park in Houston, a place where the Astros simply don't often lose, owning a 47-23 home record, one of the best in baseball.
The bad news, however, is that of the team's 27 remaining games, 16 of them come on the road, where Houston has struggled to a 27-38 mark. The key to the Astros season lies in a 10-game road trip that begins Monday in Oakland that will also make stops in Los Angeles and Texas.
Houston has already completed one transformation this year, going from rebuilding club with a bright future to legitimate contender. It'll have to make one more transformation down the stretch—turning into road warriors—if a division crown is to be won.
We've been operating under the assumption that the New York Yankees would end a two-year absence from the postseason this year, and we very well might be right. But has anyone bothered to look at the road the Bronx Bombers have to travel before playoff baseball begins?
It's only slightly less treacherous than the Cross Bronx Expressway.
The team's next 18 games come against contending clubs, including seven against Toronto, which has taken four-of-six from the Yankees since going wild at the trade deadline. Also in that 18-game run: the New York Mets, a far more dangerous team than the one the Yanks took two-of-three from in late April.
Oh, one more thing. Mark Teixeira, without whom the team wouldn't even be in contention, is out until further notice as he deals with what is being called a "deep bone bruise" on his right leg. Greg Bird has done an admirable job as his replacement, but the 22-year-old is no Teixeira. At least not yet.
Easiest Stretch-Run Schedules
While the baseball world has been fixated on Toronto—and rightfully so—the New York Mets have been nearly as impressive since the July 31 trade deadline. Terry Collins' club has gone 21-10 since reinforcements, including outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, arrived on the scene.
Cespedes, who has been nothing short of Amazin', has helped power the Mets to a 12-4 mark on the road, a major improvement for a team that was 17-32 away from Citi Field before his arrival at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.
That 16 of the team's last 28 games are on the road is no longer as daunting and troubling a scenario as it once looked to be, especially when you consider that only three of them come against a contender.
Recent history tells us that San Francisco doesn't reach the playoffs the season after winning it all, so perhaps we shouldn't be surprised about the team's current seven-game losing streak, or that the Giants have dropped 12 of their last 15 games.
With the bulk of their remaining games coming at home—including a four-game set against the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers, a team the Giants have swept in six games at AT&T Park and the only contenders they have left to face—the schedule offers some hope that things can turn around quickly.
“This is the last thing we wanted to happen, but it happened,” manager Bruce Bochy told Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News of the team's recent struggles after the Giants' 2-1 loss to Los Angeles this past Wednesday “[But] we’ve never done anything the easy way, anyway.”
The team's remaining schedule is easier than what most contenders have to deal with, and if injured right fielder Hunter Pence can make it back into the lineup before that Dodgers series, the Giants might just be able to shock the baseball world yet again and take home the NL West crown.
Say what you will about the Washington Nationals, but this is a team that has never lost faith in its ability to play winning baseball or cared all that much what the current standings had to say.
"I don't mind being in stalking position," outfielder Jayson Werth told Yahoo Sports' Tim Brown last month. "When you make the run at it down the stretch, it's easier to chase than to be chased. You know?"
Of the team's 28 remaining games, 18 come against Atlanta, Miami and Philadelphia. Washington owns a combined 23-14 record against that trio this season, which should at least afford them the opportunity to keep pace with the Mets.
If the Nats can take at least two games from the three-game set against New York that opens Monday in Washington and do the same with the games that follow, their final series of the year—a three-game clash against the Mets at Citi Field—could be must-watch baseball.
Full Contender Stretch-Run Schedule Breakdown
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics, standings, records and schedules courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
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