On the whole, the White Sox starting rotation has been very solid this year. Five of the six pitchers who have seen time in the rotation have an ERA+ above 100—and no other team in the AL Central has more than three starters with an ERA+ over 100.
So now, a look at those starters:
Buehrle had his usual Buehrle-esque success in the first half, making his fourth All-Star game with a 9-3 record and a 3.66 ERA (126 ERA+). He's been, without a doubt, the most consistent starter in the Sox rotation in the first half. In 15 of his 18 starts, Buehrle has thrown six or more innings, and only a handful of those starts haven't been at least quality.
Once again, advanced stats don't like Buehrle. His first-half FIP of 4.56 would be a red flag for most other pitchers, but given that Buehrle's career FIP of 4.17 is 0.38 runs higher than his career ERA of 3.79, it's not that big of a cause for concern.
What is, though, is Buehrle's first-half BABIP of .267. That's far below his career BABIP of .292, and that's a stat that often will normalize itself over the course of a full season. If more balls begin to find the outfield grass, Buehrle obviously won't have the kind of success he had in the first half in the second half.
Now, there could be an explanation for Buehrle's low BABIP. He's throwing his cutter the most he ever has in his career at 25.6 percent, or just over one in every four pitches. When that pitch is working, he's jamming righties in on the hands, leading to a lot of weakly hit popups and grounders.
In a lot of ways, though, Buehrle's 2009 could shape up to be much like his 2007. FIP didn't like him that year and he gave up a lot of fly balls, but he still ended up finishing the year with over 200 innings and an ERA of 3.63. If he can find a way to avoid a BABIP-induced regression, he'll be just fine in the second half.
Grade: A-
After starting the year off with three dominant starts, Danks went through a rough stretch of eight starts in which only two of them were quality. However, Danks came out of that rough patch and turned in a string of five very good starts before a questionable outing against Minnesota before the All-Star break (I say questionable because the strike zone that day was really, really small).
The fact that Danks lowered his ERA from 5.10 on June 5 to 3.91 heading into the All-Star break is pretty impressive. He still has a lot of room to improve—mainly, being more efficient with his pitches and lowering his walk rate—but he has built himself a nice foundation to work with in the second half.
I don't think anybody should expect Danks to throw like a Cy Young candidate in the second half, but if he can string together some quality starts and pepper in two of three really good starts, it'll be a success. Remember, Danks is just 24 years old. Granted, I had high expectations for him coming into the year, but given how well he pitched last year it's not surprising that the league made a concerted effort to make adjustments against him. It took him a little while to adjust to that, but now that it appears he has, he should be in good shape for the second half.
Grade: B
I don't know what to make of Floyd's first half. He was anything but good for the first month and a half of the season—after his May 17 start, he had an ERA of 7.71.
When the Jake Peavy saga was going down, Peter Gammons made this quick note during an ESPN interview:
Gammons says that the White Sox believe Gavin Floyd has been tipping his pitches, and they think it's something they can fix before Floyd's next start.
While Gammons was ultimately wrong about the Peavy trade (he thought Peavy would accept and go to the Sox), he was on to something with Floyd. From May 22 through June 29, Floyd might have been one of, if not the, best pitcher in the league—and yes, I have heard of Roy Halladay.
| Date | IP | R | ER | HR | K | BB |
| 5/22 | 8.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 |
| 5/27 | 8.0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 2 |
| 6/1 | 7.0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 3 |
| 6/6 | 6.2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 |
| 6/11 | 8.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 6/18 | 7.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 6/24 | 6.2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| 6/29 | 7.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
That's, um, really good. Floyd went from looking timid on the mound to supremely confident over those eight starts, attacking the strike zone with his fastball and throwing his curveball for strikes. That's the Floyd that the Phillies thought they were getting when they drafted him with the fourth overall pick in 2001.
Unfortunately, Floyd didn't continue that success in his two July starts. He wasn't bad against Minnesota, he just threw a pair of bad pitches to Joe Crede that went for home runs.
It'll be tough for Floyd to find that form he had for those eight late May/June starts, but if he can settle down and pitch well—not great—he could end up with some pretty nice numbers for the season. His BABIP isn't insanely low at .299 and his FIP is far lower than his ERA this year, so barring something unforeseen, Floyd shouldn't experience any sort of regression in the second half.
Grade: B
In his six starts since coming back from Triple-A Charlotte, Contreras has pitched as good as he did in the second half of 2005 and first half of 2006. He's thrown eight innings in three of those six starts, allowing no runs in the first two. His ERA went from 8.19 on June 8 to 4.54 on July 8. He went from having 17 strikeouts in his first six starts to 38 in his last six. And walks? He had 16 before going down to the minors and just six since returning.
Maybe it's Ramon Castro, maybe it's that's he secretly Benjamin Button, maybe it's that he's simply regained his confidence. Whatever it is, Contreras has pitched like an ace since coming back from Charlotte. Over the course of his career with the Sox, Contreras has been tough to project, but barring injury or some severe loss of confidence, Contreras could be that ace-in-the-hole that the Sox will need if they want to make a run at the division.
He's certainly done it before, that's for sure.
Grade: B
Richard's return to the rotation actually started off pretty well, as he fired three straight solid outings in late May. However, after that, Richard descended into the realm of mediocrity and may not have a rotation spot to call his own for much longer.
If he's going to have second-half success, Richard needs to start by getting ahead in more counts. He's falling behind in too many counts, and that's leading to a lot of walks (4.07 BB/9).
His BABIP is high at .334 and his FIP (4.79) is far lower than his ERA (5.42), but even those mean an improvement in his numbers is in store, it may not be enough to warrant keeping him in the rotation.
What will be interesting is what the Sox do with Richard if he indeed is dropped from the rotation. If he's moved to the bullpen, it probably would mean Aaron Poreda would be sent down to the minors. However, if Poreda is sent to the minors, he'd likely enter Charlotte or Birmingham's rotation. That could mean that if Bartolo Colon (who would be the guy to take over for Richard in the rotation) falters or gets hurt, Poreda could be more in line to enter the rotation than Richard.
Grade: C-
For throwing over 90 percent fastballs, Colon actually wasn't all that bad before going on the DL with a "knee injury." His ERA+ of 109 is better than average, and while he only lasted six or more innings in three of his 11 starts, he really wasn't terrible for a fifth starter.
He brings more than Clayton Richard, at the least. While he'll have his bad outings, he'll usually give the Sox five innings and give up three or so runs. Nothing great, but at least enough to keep the Sox in the game.
Colon likely will get a start in the July 24 doubleheader in Detroit, and if he pitches well in that, he could slide in to the rotation for Richard—assuming Richard struggles. If they both pitch well, it'll be interesting to see what the Sox do. They could keep Richard in the rotation, but it wouldn't surprise me if Colon stays in the rotation and Richard gets bumped to the bullpen with Poreda going to the minors given Richard's experience in the bullpen.
That could mean a fifth starter tandem of Colon and Richard, with Colon going four or five innings and Richard picking up two or three to get the Sox into the rest of the bullpen.
I'm not completely dissatisfied with Colon, but I'm not entirely pleased with his performance in the first half. I don't think he's the answer to the Sox' fifth starter problem, but then again, I don't think Richard is either.
Grade: C-
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