The decline of the Cleveland Indians over the past two years, from playoff contender in 2007, to league average in 2008, to cellar dweller in 2009, has been perhaps the most dramatic in the major leagues.
And it (mostly) came from a different source than I thought.
Indian batters tend to be among the better ones in the league on traditional metrics, even in 2009. But their contribution hovers around league average because they aren't very clutch.
That's because they exhibit a feast-or-famine pattern, that often causes the team to win or lose by a lot. A game like the 22-4 romp over the Yankees' Chien-Ming Wang does a lot more for raw stats than it does for win-loss percentage.
It's Indian PITCHERS that decide close games, the wins that (in most cases) determine whether the team will be in the top or bottom of their league. Hence, the surprising importance of pitching to a team traditionally short in this area.
FanGraphs ranked Indian pitchers 13 and-a-half wins above league average in 2007. That was second only to, get this, the Boston Red Sox in that year, which is why Boston ultimately won the ALCS, 4-3.
In 2009, on the other hand, Indian pitchers were collectively 11-and-a half games below league average, second from the bottom only to the Washington Nationals.
That's a swing of 25 games in two years, which by itself, represents the difference between 65 wins and 90.
One pitcher, Fausto Carmona, single-handedly represented a large part of this decline. In 2007, he was arguably a more productive pitcher than CC Sabathia, and perhaps should have been the Cy Young winner.
In 2009, he would have been a candidate for the "negative" Cy Young award, had there been such a thing. The difference between the two years was almost eight wins, or about one-third of the 25 total.
Rafael Betancourt lost almost six-and-a-half wins of value between the two years (before he was traded), a quarter of those 25 Indians' wins. Rafael Perez is also a shadow of his old self, having lost over four wins (one-sixth of the Indian total).
For the rest, Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey are no CC Sabathia (even the former one). Cliff Lee was not a factor in 2007 (he emerged in 2008), nor will he be going forward (after his trade to the Phillies).
So in order of priority, the Indians' rebuilding pattern should be something like the following: first, shore up your hitting, the team's traditional area of strength, while adding defense to your lineup, to save that marginal run (and game).
Second, rebuild your bullpen to "save" games in late innings for your hitters. Develop some solid, middle-of-the-rotation types.
Finally, when everything else is in place, get some top-of-the-line pitchers, another CC Sabathia or Cliff Lee, through trade or signing. You can't win without them.
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