If you woke up this morning thinking it had been too long since Major League Baseball's last three-team blockbuster, we have good news! Such a trade materialized early Wednesday afternoon.
Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports was first to report something was brewing between the Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers, and we soon found out that the Cincinnati Reds were involved, too. In the end, the three have struck a trade that's changing the addresses of one star and several talented prospects.
Here's the full trade:
- The White Sox are getting All-Star third baseman Todd Frazier from the Reds, as reported by C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer.
- The Dodgers are getting outfielder Trayce Thompson, right-hander Frankie Montas and infielder Micah Johnson from the White Sox, as reported by Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
- The Reds are getting infielders Jose Peraza and Brandon Dixon and outfielder Scott Schebler from the Dodgers, as reported by Heyman.
All told, you're looking at three teams exchanging seven players. In the words of Jeffrey "The Dude" Lebowski, this is a complicated case with lots of ins, lots of outs and lots of what-have-yous.
That's our cue to break it down and work our way toward a conclusion about the big winner.
What the White Sox Are Getting
Cutting right to the chase, what the White Sox are getting is one of the best third basemen in baseball.
Frazier went through some ups and downs between 2011 and 2013, but he's found himself in the last two seasons. The 29-year-old has racked up an .801 OPS, slugged 64 home runs and stolen 33 bases, all while rating as an easily above-average defender at the hot corner. Whether you ask FanGraphs or Baseball-Reference.com, WAR pegs Frazier as a top-five third baseman over the last two seasons.
Certainly, that should have White Sox fans slapping hands.
As they well know, what the club has gotten out of third base over the last two years hasn't been pretty. In fact, only two clubs have gotten less fWAR from the hot corner. And though they did just pull off a trade for Brett Lawrie, suffice it to say Frazier is far more of a sure thing than he is.
As for what this means for Chicago's chances of contending in 2016, Frazier alone isn't enough to elevate them from a 76-win team to favorites in the AL Central. But if nothing else, it does bode well that it's shaping up to be a competitive division.
As B/R's Danny Knobler heard from one MLB executive, the White Sox may not need to add much more on top of Frazier to have a fighting chance in the AL Central:
If the White Sox can't get it done with Frazier in 2016, it's not the end of the world. He doesn't hit free agency until after 2017, so he'll be in Chicago for at least the next two seasons.
The downside of this trade for the White Sox is that they had to sacrifice a good chunk of young talent. But it could have been worse. The White Sox didn't have to surrender top shortstop prospect Tim Anderson, whom Knobler reports the Reds really wanted in exchange for Frazier.
These things considered, the White Sox have done well.
What the Dodgers Are Getting
If we were to sit down and make a list of the Dodgers' biggest needs, none of us would think to put outfield depth, young pitching depth or young infield depth anywhere near the top.
But you know what? It doesn't hurt to have more of these things. Especially when these particular players are involved.
In Thompson—who, in case you don't already know, is the younger brother of Golden State Warriors sharpshooting guard Klay Thompson—the Dodgers are getting a 24-year-old outfielder who flashed considerable promise in 2015. After a strong showing in Triple-A, he played 44 games in the majors and OPS'd .896 with pretty good outfield defense.
Also, we can take it from Chuck Garfien of CSN Chicago that Thompson is a great guy to have in a clubhouse to boot:
Elsewhere, Montas is a 22-year-old right-hander who checks in at No. 54 on MLB.com's prospect rankings. He's known for his fastball, which has been clocked as high as 102 miles per hour. Next to Julio Urias, Jose De Leon and Grant Holmes, the Dodgers farm system now features some impressive arms.
This brings us to Johnson. The 24-year-old struggled mightily in his first taste of the majors in 2015, posting just a .576 OPS in 36 games. But he still ranks No. 5 among second-base prospects at MLB.com, and he effectively takes Peraza's place on the Dodgers' organizational depth chart.
To acquire these prospects, it's notable that the Dodgers didn't have to sacrifice any of their own top prospects or any of the promising youngsters they have on their major league roster.
That makes one wonder if this deal is a prelude to something bigger. Perhaps, as Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports wonders, some sort of deal with the Miami Marlins:
Word is the Marlins have a right-hander named Jose Fernandez who's pretty good, and who might also be available. Food for thought.
What the Reds Are Getting
We've been waiting for the Reds to go into sell mode this winter. Now that Frazier is out the door, it looks like our wait is finished.
If nothing else, the Reds are saving a bit of money. They're ditching Frazier's $7.5 million salary for 2016 and also getting out of his final year of arbitration eligibility in 2017.
As for the prospects the Reds are getting, Peraza is the big prize. He's a 21-year-old who rates as the No. 24 prospect in baseball in MLB.com's eyes. He's known for his quick bat and blinding speed, evoking fun thoughts about what he and Billy Hamilton could do atop Cincinnati's lineup in the years to come.
The rest of the return, though? It's not so awesome. Schebler is a 25-year-old who lost his place as one of the Dodgers' top prospects amid a trying 2015 season, and Dixon is a 23-year-old who was last seen being humbled by a promotion from High-A to Double-A in 2015.
John Manuel of Baseball America isn't a big fan of either Schebler or Dixon, and even his appreciation for Peraza comes with a caveat:
What this trade boils down to, then, is the Reds giving up a star third baseman with two years of club control left and getting back one good prospect and two not-so-good prospects. We can grant that they may know something about Schebler and Dixon that we don't, but for now, it's fair to wonder if they could have done better.
So, Who Won?
If we were to take this complex trade and put it into an easy-to-understand nutshell, it would go like this: The White Sox are getting a star, the Dodgers are boosting their farm system, and the Reds probably aren't boosting their farm system enough.
That makes the White Sox and Dodgers sound like the big winners, which Passan reports is the consensus among MLB scouts and executives as well. The catch, though, is that this trade looks like a legit endgame for the White Sox and a mere stepping stone for the Dodgers. For them, the success of this deal is likely tied to the success of a deal that's still to come.
Given that, the crown here goes to the White Sox. They have won this trade.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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