The 2015 American League wild-card race is like the La Brea Tar Pits: sticky, murky and crowded. Of course, instead of prehistoric creatures, we're dealing with baseball teams—but you get the idea.
Entering play Wednesday, six clubs—not counting the division leaders—sit within 3.5 games or fewer of a wild-card berth.
No squad except the Kansas City Royals, who hold a commanding 12-game advantage in the AL Central, looks like a postseason lock.
So let's toss the other two division leaders into the mix and say we have eight teams jostling for four spots. That's a lot of possible permutations and a preamble for a truly wild finish.
If the season ended today, the New York Yankees would win the AL East, the Houston Astros would win the AL West and the Royals would claim the AL Central.
The Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Angels, meanwhile, would take the first and second wild-card slots, respectively.
Most of that, however, is fluid. The Yankees lead the hard-charging Jays by just half a game, while the Astros hold a narrow one-game advantage over the Angels.
And the Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins and Texas Rangers are all hanging around the edge of the wild-card chase.
The clubs in question won't always admit they're in the midst of a neck-and-neck fracas.
After defeating the Orioles 5-4 on Sunday, Angels manager Mike Scioscia offered the following to Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times: "There's still a long way to go. I don't think we were making moves like you'd do if it was the seventh game of the playoffs."
Fair enough. But you're also not managing it like it's a midweek meeting in early June. These contests matter—a lot.
So who's got the advantage? Which squads will emerge from this overpopulated, chaotic scramble?
First, let's predict the division winners to get that out of the way.
The Royals, as stated, are close to a no-risk bet. And we'll give the West to the Astros, tenuous though their hold may be, since they play the majority of their remaining games at home and own an impressive 38-18 record in Houston.
In the East, it's tough to bet against Toronto. The Jays added All-Star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and ace left-hander David Price at the trade deadline, among other pieces, and have now won nine straight. Logic dictates they won't stay this hot, but they appear destined for first place and their first playoff appearance since 1993.
As ESPN.com's David Schoenfield noted, "[Jays skipper] John Gibbons could align his rotation to make sure Price gets two more starts against the Yankees—starts that could be the difference between a division title and a wild card."
That leaves the Yankees, Orioles, Rays, Twins, Angels and Rangers bubbling in the wild-card crucible.
The first factor to consider is remaining strength of schedule. FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan parsed that question on August 5 and concluded—surprise, surprise—that the picture is cloudy in the AL.
In fact, according to Sullivan, the six wild-card hopefuls listed above have the toughest remaining schedules of any team in the AL except the last-place Oakland A's, who own the roughest remaining slate.
The Rays have the easiest schedule of the wild-card contenders and the Orioles have the most arduous, but the difference accounts for scarcely more than half a win. That could matter, but it likely won't be the deciding factor.
Baseball Prospectus predicts the Yankees and Angels will narrowly win out. At the risk of deferring, we'll agree.
The Twins are a great story, but they've been on a steady fade since emerging as MLB's potential Cinderella. The Rays don't have the offensive weapons to hang in the race, and the Rangers lack pitching.
The Orioles are the most difficult club to discount, and the defending AL East champs could return to the October stage.
But we're putting our money on the Yanks, who cover up their starting-rotation question marks with MLB's second-highest-scoring offense, and a Halos club that boasts the fifth-best ERA in the AL and a lineup-anchoring masher by the name of Mike Trout.
Quibble if you want. That's what these wide-open races are all about. Just make sure you remember to enjoy the games—and gaze into the churning tar pit.
All statistics current as of August 10 and courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.
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