Note: All team projections were found using the FEINs projections. An explanation behind projected wins, losses, and other stats can be found here.
1. Los Angeles Angels
Angels fans will say that the projected 83 wins is too low, but consider this: The Angels won 100 games last year, but their run differential suggested they were an 88-win team. Sixty-one of their wins were by one or two runs, by far the most in the league.
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In games decided by two runs or less, the Angels went 61-28 (.685 win percentage); but in games decided by more than three runs, the Angels went 39-34 (.534 win percentage). Only they and Tampa Bay had a win percentage over .576 in one- or two-run games, and FEIN is also down on the Rays, who had a .667 win percentage in such games.
Over the offseason, the Angels lost key pieces to their 100 wins, first baseman Mark Teixeira and closer Francisco Rodriguez. The Angels traded Casey Kotchman for Teixeira, so they are stuck with Kendry Morales at first. Morales is projected to have a .747 OPS and .268 AVG, both below league average.
The Angels added Brian Fuentes to take over for Rodriguez' vacated closer role. In a neutral park and league, Fuentes' projected ERA is about 30 points higher than Rodriguez', so the drop off is somewhat big. Nevertheless, Fuentes' 3.46 projected ERA is still valuable, though his 8.48 strikeouts per nine would be a significant decrease from last year.
The Angels also added Bobby Abreu to start at left field. FEIN is very down on Abreu, projecting a .276 AVG and .799 OPS, with 16 HR and 23 SB in 676 PA. But for one year and $5 million, you've got to take the chance, right?
Designated hitter Vladimir Guerrero lost a year on his age when he unintentionally admitted to reporters that he was actually 34. Vlad's projection—.305 AVG, .890 OPS, 27 home runs, and 101 RBI in 608 PA—is actually an increase in his 2008 stats and warrants the No. 22 pick in fantasy leagues.
Pitcher Joe Saunders had a 3.41 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 198 innings last year, a year after a 4.44 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. FEIN thinks he'll essentially split the difference, with a projected 4.08 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 171 innings. He, John Lackey (projected ERA of 3.78), Ervin Santana (4.10), and Jered Weaver (3.91) anchor one of the best rotations in baseball.
2. Texas Rangers
The Rangers have one of the best lineups in the league, projected to score the eight-most runs. But their pitching is horrendous. Projected to allow the second-most runs, the Rangers would be 86-76 if they had a league average pitching staff. Essentially, their pitching is costing them nine wins.
The Rangers' best starter is Kevin Millwood. He's projected to have a 4.70 ERA. Let's move on.
Josh Hamilton continued his comeback story last year, with 32 home runs, 130 RBI, and a .901 OPS. FEIN sees him lowering those numbers, but mainly because of the 145 projected PA drop. Adjusting his projected stats to the 704 PA he had last year, Hamilton's projected line becomes 33 home runs, 116 RBI, 97 runs, and a .860 OPS. His projected stats as is make him the No. 40 hitter in fantasy.
First baseman Chris Davis is going to be a star one day. His current projection gives him a .900 OPS, a .304 average, 16 home runs, and 48 RBI in 303 PA; prorated to 600 PA, that's 32 HR and 95 RBI, as well as 85 runs.
For a comparison, David Ortiz is projected to have 33 HR, 105 RBI, 88 runs, and a .291 AVG. Davis is just slightly worse than Ortiz in 600 PA; Ortiz is projected to be No. 28 overall in fantasy. Take Davis with confidence in the sixth round of your draft.
Ian Kinsler is projected to be the fourth-best 2B this year, with 18 home runs, 20 steals, 87 runs, and a .289 AVG. Despite that, he's ranked only No. 49 overall. In Yahoo! fantasy leagues, for example, the No. 4 second baseman is going inside the top 30.
FEIN thinks new third baseman Michael Young—who moved from shortstop to make room for Elvis Andrus—should increase his production from 2008, with a projection of 92 runs, 89 RBI, a .303 AVG, and a .787 OPS. FEIN also projects 14 home runs, which he hasn't reached since 2006. Young ranks exceptionally high at No. 21 overall, good for a second-round pick in 12-team leagues. That he'll have both 3B and SS eligibility—and that he's currently going outside the top 85 overall in both ESPN an Yahoo! league—makes him a nice sleeper pick in the seventh round.
With their core of twenty-something hitters, the Rangers should be successful for the next three or four years—that is, if they can just find some pitching.
3. Oakland Athletics
At first, it looked like Oakland was stocking up for the future. They traded Rich Hardin, Chad Gaudin, and Joe Blanton at the trade deadline last year for a wealth of minor leaguers. Then, in mid-November, they were the winners of the Matt Holliday sweepstakes, giving up Carlos Gomez, Greg Smith, and Huston Street to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for Holliday. They seemed to be playing for 2009 now and in the remaining months of the offseason signed Jason Giambi, Orlando Cabrera, and Nomar Garciaparra.
In Colorado, Holliday was a monster, batting over .320 with a .947 OPS or higher in each of the past three years. But FEIN thinks the switch from Coors Field to McAfee Coliseum and from the NL to the AL will severely depress Holliday's stats. FEIN projects a .291 AVG and a .836 OPS, with 22 home runs, 15 steals, and 94 runs and RBI, in 621 PA. Though his stats seem low, he ranks 19th among hitters and 25th overall in fantasy.
Fellow acquisition Jason Giambi still has power but is lacking the ability to hit anything else; he's projected to hit 23 home runs with a .247 AVG. Nevertheless, his .374 OBP and .470 SLG are greatly above league average.
The A's pitching staff is predominantly unproven. Ace Justin Duchscherer had a 2.54 ERA and 1.00 WHIP last year in his first year as a starter. His projected 3.58 ERA would be 12th among starters, but in just 125 projected innings, that 3.58 ERA isn't that valuable; indeed, Duchscherer will miss the start of the season due to a setback in his rehab from his season-ending elbow injury.
No. 2 pitcher Dana Eveland's 2008 season was also his first as a full-time starter. Eveland had a 3.34 ERA heading into August, but from then on, he had a 5.70 ERA. His post-July performance is one for concern, and FEIN projects a 4.61 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 2009.
Joey Devine and Brad Ziegler may be the best one-two bullpen combination in the league. They combined for a 0.85 ERA in 2008, and FEIN thinks they'll do worse but still have a very good ERA. Devine is forecasted to have a 2.93 ERA, the sixth-lowest in the league, and Ziegler's projected to have a 3.41 ERA. Together, their 2009 line looks like this: 102 innings, 3.25 ERA, 8-4 record, and 35 saves.
4. Seattle Mariners
Predicted by some to win 85 games, the Mariners failed to live up to expectations, going 61-101 and becoming the first team eliminated from playoff contention. Their offense was lead by the four-headed tag team consisting of Kenji Johjima, Richie Sexson, Wladimir Balentien, and Jose Vidro. Together, they batted .222, had a .300 OBP, a .346 SLG, and a .646 OPS in over 1,200 PA.
FEIN has the Mariners duplicating their offensive failures, forecasting just four more runs scored than the 617 they had last year.
Seattle's offense wasn't the only problem last year—they allowed more than five runs per game. You could say Erik Bedard was one cause (even though he had a 3.67 ERA), because the Mariners only got 81 innings out of their pitcher for whom they traded Adam Jones and George Sherrill in the offseason. Bedard is projected to have a 3.79 ERA, and if he can pitch 170 innings, he'd be more than worth the players given up for him.
Brandon Morrow's 3.34 ERA last year allowed the Mariners to get rid of J.J. Putz, but reports are that the Mariners are trying to convert Morrow to a starter; their depth chart confirms that. But FEIN projects Morrow as a closer, and gives him a 3.70 ERA and 71 strikeouts in 70 innings for 2009. If he is a starter, he projected numbers rise to around a 3.95 ERA and 8.00 strikeouts per nine. (Note: Those numbers have not been calculated; they are estimations based on the stats of the average projected reliever and the average projected starter.)
Outfielder Ichiro Suzuki has been the model of consistency for the Mariners. He's had over 200 hits, 100 runs, 30 steals, and 700 PA with a .300 average in every year of his eight-year major league career. FEIN sees the same this year, projecting a .305 average, 102 runs, and 36 steals in 727 PA. Those numbers make him No. 34 overall and a late third-rounder in standard leagues.
Third baseman Adrian Beltre has been underrated from a fantasy standpoint in the last few years. He puts up very good numbers year in, year out but gets no love by fantasy owners. He's averaged 25 home runs, 83 runs, 88 RBI, 11 steals, and a respectful .270 average the past three years. FEIN projects 23 homers, 77 runs, 82 RBI, nine steals, and a .265 AVG, which makes him worth the No. 85 overall pick, an eighth-rounder.
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