Like a savvy chess player, MLB executives and general managers should always be thinking a few moves ahead—which is why this offseason promises to bring a flurry of landscape-altering activity.
While the 2015-16 free-agent class is stocked with top-shelf talent, next winter's crop is less bountiful. Teams with holes to fill and cash to burn understand that now is the time to act, either via the open market or on the trading block.
You know about the big names who will sign in the coming weeks and months. David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann headline an eye-popping list of available arms. In fact, with Price and Greinke both on the market, we could see the Cy Young winner in each league ink a new deal, depending on how the Baseball Writers' Association of America voters lean.
As for the hitters, MLB's 2015 home run leader, Chris Davis, is ripe for the picking, as is Cuban masher Yoenis Cespedes. And toss in Jason Heyward and Justin Upton, two under-30 outfielders with five-tool capabilities.
There's notable depth behind those marquee names as well—Plans B, C and D that are not only palatable but downright appetizing.
By contrast, the expected 2016-17 pool of free agents, per MLBTradeRumors.com, is shallow. The biggest name in that bunch is probably Washington Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg, who remains one of the most exciting talents in either league despite an injury-riddled, up-and-down 2015.
Strasburg might be in play now. On Oct. 18, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported that there is "a lot of buzz" surrounding the possibility of a trade for the 27-year-old former All-Star and No. 1 overall pick.
Either way, Strasburg is easily the top prize in a 2016-17 starting pitching group that includes some moderately interesting options—Andrew Cashner, Ivan Nova—but few if any legitimate aces.
Teams searching for offense will find the shelves similarly bare. Josh Reddick and Carlos Gomez may well be the top free-agent hitters in 2016-17, which says a lot. After that, there's a mix of aging sluggers—Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Teixeira—and bargain-bin bats.
To drive the point home, here's a striking comparison: Of the top 25 players by FanGraphs WAR in 2015, five—Cespedes, Price, Heyward, Greinke and Davis—are free agents this winter.
The number who will be free agents next winter? Zero.
The one place where the 2016-17 class shines is in the bullpen, where Aroldis Chapman and Drew Storen headline a deep collection of closers and setup men. So perhaps clubs with a need there will consider biding their time.
Other than that, this is the offseason to open checkbooks and initiate trade talks, to get creative and stay aggressive. And, rest assured, there's not a single front office in baseball that doesn't know it.
Last winter, the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers—baseball's highest rollers—displayed restraint, opting for mid-level additions rather than Brink's truck expenditures.
Don't expect that to happen again. The Dodgers figure to be in on every high-priced free-agent, as they look to bring back Greinke and possibly add another stud starter such as Price, who has a history with President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman from their days with the Tampa Bay Rays.
As for the Yankees, surely they'll take a long look at the various free-agent aces, given the question marks in their starting rotation. And on the trade front, GM Brian Cashman recently said he's "open to anything," per Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal.
As the Dodgers and Yankees dive in with their deep pockets, so will the San Francisco Giants and Boston Red Sox, both of whom need starting pitching (and much more in the case of Boston). That's four of the top five payrolls in the game, per Spotrac.com, potentially bidding against each other for some of the game's biggest stars. Add a couple of legendary rivalries and you've got high drama in the offing.
Boston, in particular, is a team to watch, with Dave Dombrowski now at the helm. During his days with the Detroit Tigers, Dombrowski swung a series of headline-grabbing swaps, and as yours truly noted, he has an enviable supply of trade chips at his disposal.
Speaking of which, the Chicago Cubs have emerged as an early favorite to land Price, but they also have oodles of young talent to dangle in trade.
The defending NL champion New York Mets could be in the market for a bat or two if they can't bring back Cespedes, and rumors figure to swirl around their stable of studs, particularly right-hander Matt Harvey.
The world champion Kansas City Royals don't hang out in the upper echelon of spenders, but they'll be active, as Cueto, left fielder Alex Gordon and super-utilityman Ben Zobrist could all sign elsewhere.
And on it goes. Throw a dart, pick a squad, and you'll find needs to fill and at least some resources to spend. Most importantly, you'll almost surely find a willingness to spend those resources and make long-term commitments, considering the paucity of options coming down the pike next year.
It begins in earnest at the general managers meetings, which kick off Monday in Boca Raton, Florida. Don't be surprised if ink hits a few contracts and a trade or two is consummated.
"The general managers meetings, years ago, used to be where everything was set up for the winter meetings," Seattle Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto said, per MLB.com's Paul Hagen. "Now, quite frankly, the general managers meetings are where we generally culminate or bring to fruition a lot of the conversations we've been having since the season ended."
Of course, as MLB.com's Richard Justice noted, "With the talent level so close among so many teams, it's the teams that find subtle ways to upgrade rosters and fill holes that have been rewarded almost as much as those that make the huge, splashy, expensive signings."
That's a fair point. Spending is all well and good, but spending smart is the key. Still, the splashy stuff is going to matter—a lot—and it's going to come fast, furious and frothing.
Get ready, in other words. The floodgates are open, the iron is hot, and the MLB offseason chess match has begun.
All stats and free-agent info current as of Nov. 8 and courtesy of MLB.com and Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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