As Jason Bay and his agent attempt to restart talks with the Boston Red Sox, there are a number of reasons why it would be wise for the Sox to continue to pass.
First, they're over-crowded in the outfield. With the recent signing of Mike Cameron (two years, $15 million) and Jeremy Hermida (one year, $2.25 million), there is no need for Bay.
Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Cameron, and J.D. Drew would be the regular outfielders.
Hermida could be the fourth outfielder and fill in for the often injured Drew or give the other guys days off.
Second, the acquisition of Bay, barring some back loading of the contract, would push the Sox payroll over the $170 million luxury tax threshold.
Even if the contract is constructed to keep them under the threshold, it would put major strain on the payroll down the road.
Third, after the 2010 season is over, the bloated contracts of players like David Ortiz ($12.5 million), Mike Lowell ($12 million), and Julio Lugo ($9 million) will all be off the books.
In addition, 2010 marks the end of a few lesser contracts like Jason Varitek ($3 million), Billy Wagner ($1 million), and Alex Gonzalez ($500,000).
In total, that comes to nearly $40 million off the books.
Money that could be used to sign players like Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez beyond the 2010 season or be used to sign other players that will hit the free agent market after the 2010 season.
A crop that is said to be much more talent rich than this years.
Lastly, throw in the concerns about Bay's health (shoulder) and poor defensive ability and I think its clear that the Sox would be better suited for the future by continuing to pass on Bay.
I guess the best way to put it would be to say that they must "Bite the bullet" offensively in 2010, in order to put themselves in position to make a bigger improvement than Jason Bay could provide, for 2011 and beyond.
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